Trump fires at Iran: If it refuses a peace agreement, it will be “bombed more aggressively,” oil prices fall 6%, and US stocks rise together

U.S. President Trump posted a barrage on Truth Social in the early hours of May 6, pressuring Iran and warning that if Tehran does not accept the current draft of a peace agreement, the United States will resume military strikes against Iran, with the intensity “higher than before.” CNBC cited Trump’s original words: “The bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before.” In the same round of posts, Trump also claimed that progress on the final agreement is “very big,” and signaled a two-track approach—one side issuing threats while the other releases negotiation updates.

Draft agreement: pause nuclear enrichment, lift sanctions, both sides end restrictions on Hormuz Strait navigation

Based on CNBC and Axios’s compilation, the rough outlines of the provisions currently on the negotiating table are:

Iran pledges to pause its nuclear enrichment program

The U.S. lifts sanctions against Iran

Both sides abandon controls over shipping passage in the Hormuz Strait

Since April 7, both the U.S. and Iran have maintained a fragile ceasefire state to create a window of time for negotiations. Washington expects Tehran to respond within the next 48 hours to several key provisions, which would then be consolidated into a “one-page memo.” This 48-hour timeline is the core anchor for today’s market reaction—investors are using it to judge: if a peace deal is reached, oil prices will fall further; if talks break down, U.S. strikes will restart.

Market reaction: oil prices drop 6%, U.S. stocks and bonds rise in tandem

After Trump’s posts, market moves were:

Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate fall together by about 6%—the market interpretation is that “a deal is in sight” outweighs “bombing threats,” with the view that the risk of supply disruption is declining

All three major U.S. stock indexes close higher, with European stocks also rising

U.S. Treasury prices rise and yields fall

This combination of prices sends a clear signal: investors are betting that “a deal is reached” is the base-case scenario, and Trump’s military threats are seen as negotiation leverage rather than imminent action. At the same time, the market is lifting defensive indicators such as the VIX, showing that traders still keep hedged positions in case talks break down.

What to watch next: Iran’s response in the next 48 hours, and further actions in the Hormuz Strait

Two key events over the next 48 hours:

Iran’s formal response to the U.S. proposal—the content will determine whether the one-page memo can be completed, and whether the outcome is direct evidence of negotiation progress or a breakdown

The specific arrangements for Hormuz Strait shipping—on May 5, Trump said the “pause” of military action in the strait would be in place; if no further agreement is seen within 48 hours, whether the previously paused military deployment is restored will be the next focus for the market

For the global energy market, if a deal is reached in this case, there may be further downside room for crude oil; if talks break down, oil prices could bounce after 48 hours and U.S. stocks would face pressure. This timeline is worth tracking day by day, because price reactions will anchor market expectations faster than written agreement language.

This article, Trump threatens Iran: if it rejects the peace agreement, bombing will be “more forceful,” oil prices fall 6%, U.S. stocks rise in unison, first appeared on Chain News ABMedia.