U.S.-Iran Conflict Escalates: Spot Crude Oil Breaks $140—A Double Test of Inflation and Safe-Haven Demand for the Crypto Industry

On April 3, 2026, the U.S. and Israel carried out airstrikes on the Beyk highway bridge in Kharajat City, Iran. The bridge is a landmark transportation infrastructure in Iran. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps immediately launched a military retaliation called “Round 90 of Real Commitment,” striking U.S.-related metal industry facilities and announcing an expansion of the scope of attack targets. Spot Brent crude oil prices broke through 140 USD per barrel immediately, the highest level since 2008; the WTI crude oil settlement price first exceeded 110 USD in 2022 and has continued to rise. The Strait of Hormuz transit agreement is being drafted; global energy markets and the digital asset industry face both cost pressure and dual structural pressure to seek safety.

Transmission Path of Energy Prices Breaking Through $140

A spot price of 140 USD directly pushes up the global average electricity price. Bitcoin mining depends on electricity input, and the marginal production cost rises as electricity prices increase. Under a proof-of-work based consensus mechanism, when the market price falls below the shutdown cost of some mining rigs, computing power will concentrate among miners who have low-price electricity contracts or resources of associated natural gas. Although Ethereum Layer 2 and mainstream public chains have shifted to proof-of-stake, their data availability layer and settlement layer still depend on the energy pricing environment of the underlying public chain, and on-chain transaction fees face upward pressure.

High energy prices also intensify inflation expectations in major economies. Increases in transportation, manufacturing, and electricity costs will feed into the consumer price index. The U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank may maintain a tight monetary policy; liquidity tightening will weigh on the valuations of risk assets, including crypto assets.

Current Status of Iran’s Computing Power and Digital Infrastructure

Recent U.S. intelligence assessments show that after five weeks of continuous strikes, about half of Iran’s missile launch systems and thousands of drones remain intact, and most coastal defense cruise missiles have not been damaged. Iran has been one of the world’s important sources of Bitcoin mining computing power, benefiting from energy subsidy policies. The military conflict has caused power outages in parts of Iran’s Alborz province; if the energy supply system is further damaged, Iranian domestic mining farms could shut down on a large scale, causing short-term fluctuations in the network’s total computing power.

The commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps “Fathin” unit was killed. Iranian media outlet Fars News listed multiple bridges in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, and Jordan, saying they could be targets of potential military operations. Digital infrastructure—including data centers and cloud service nodes—may become either collateral damage or direct attack targets as tensions escalate. Iran claims that it struck data centers of Oracle and Amazon in the Gulf region. Although the media office in Dubai, the United Arab Emirates, denied that local Oracle data centers were attacked, the incident shows that the vulnerability of digital infrastructure in military conflicts is increasing.

Regulatory Spillover and Policy Chain Reactions

A spike in energy prices will raise major economies’ sensitivity to electricity consumption. Bitcoin mining may again become an object of regulatory targeting and control. Some U.S. states and the EU previously imposed energy-efficiency disclosure requirements on mining companies. In a higher-energy-price environment, related disclosure standards may be tightened further, or energy-efficiency taxes and electricity-use quota limits may be added.

The U.S. Embassy in Iraq has asked local U.S. citizens to evacuate immediately, indicating that the U.S. may expand the scope of its military involvement. If stablecoin issuers denominated in U.S. dollars are hit by direct sanctions or indirect financial controls, the liquidity and compliance of their reserve assets will face challenges. Trading platforms need to continuously monitor compliance developments in relevant legal jurisdictions.

Safe-Haven Capital Flows and Crypto Asset Positioning

Iran’s deputy foreign minister confirmed that it is drafting the Strait of Hormuz transit agreement with Oman. The strait is one of the world’s most important oil transportation routes; if transit is impeded, energy prices may rise further. Traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and the U.S. dollar typically benefit in such geopolitical crises, but the dollar is constrained by the paradox that the issuing entity itself is a party to the conflict.

The efficiency advantage of Bitcoin and stablecoins in cross-border value transfers becomes evident in environments where infrastructure is damaged or capital controls are strengthened. The likelihood that centralized cloud services and financial infrastructure become military targets increases, and the differentiated value proposition of decentralized networks’ resistance to censorship grows. However, the correlation between crypto assets and traditional risk assets has not yet fallen significantly. Whether safe-haven demand can translate into substantial inflows still requires the broader market consensus to form around “digital gold” positioning.

FAQ

Q: What is the specific impact of Brent breaking through $140 on Bitcoin mining costs?

A: The marginal cost of Bitcoin mining depends on mining rig efficiency and electricity price. For example, using the commonly used Antminer S19: when the electricity price is $0.05 per kilowatt-hour, the daily electricity cost per unit is about $3.6; if the electricity price rises to $0.08, the cost increases to about $5.8. The specific impact varies by the mining site’s geography, electricity contract type, and cooling method, with no single uniform figure.

Q: What share of Bitcoin mining computing power is in Iran, roughly?

A: Based on historical data from the Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index, Iran’s share of global Bitcoin mining computing power typically fluctuates between 0.5% and 2%, and the exact figure is influenced by seasonal energy allocation policies. In the current conflict situation, the share may decline further.

Q: During the U.S.-Iran conflict, are crypto assets suitable as short-term safe-haven tools?

A: Crypto asset prices have significantly higher volatility than gold and U.S. Treasury bonds. Historical data shows that in some geopolitical conflict events, the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has sometimes risen rather than fallen. Investors should evaluate based on their own risk tolerance and should not equate crypto assets with traditional safe-haven assets.