In 47 days, from earning 44 million dollars to losing all capital, the fate of Brother Ma Ji was determined by the "Gambler's Ruin Theorem."Brother Maji, a former artist and tech entrepreneur, is now a Whale in the crypto world. He put on a jaw-dropping wealth roller coaster at the Hyperliquid exchange.
With an aggressive leverage strategy, he once pushed his account to nearly $60 million (with more than $44 million in floating profits).
However, driven by the "gambler's fallacy" and the "disposition effect," he ignored the market reversal and frantically added to his position, trying to fight against mathematical laws.
Ultimately, in 47 days, it fell from its peak to only 1718 dollars, losing all capital, vividly and brutally illustrating the conclusion of the "gambler's ruin theorem."
To understand this defeat, one must grasp three concepts: random walk, absorption barrier, and negative drift.
① Random Walk
Imagine a drunkard walking in a straight line. He tosses a coin, if it's heads he moves forward (making money), if it's tails he takes a step back (losing money).
The experience of Brother Maji is essentially that of a drunken man's footsteps. In the short term, he may be...
DeepFlowTech·2025-11-20 01:49