The Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates steady in April, with a 99.5% probability. Looking ahead to June, there's a 94.1% chance of maintaining rates, a 0.5% chance of an increase, and a 5.4% chance of a cut.

Between 2026-04-17 09:15 and 2026-04-17 09:30 (UTC), ETH fluctuated within the 2351.53 to 2376.99 USDT range. The 15-minute return recorded +0.65%, with a swing of 1.08%. Within this range, buying pressure significantly strengthened, with trades dominated by medium-sized orders, which increased market attention and amplified short-term volatility. The main drivers behind this anomaly are continued inflows of institutional capital into ETH spot ETFs, especially with cumulative net inflows over the past 4 days exceeding $212 million. On April 17 alone, the ETF added an additional $9.5 million in inflows, and spot buy orders expanded in sync within 15 minutes. Leveraged long positions in the derivatives market are the second-largest catalyst. From April 14 to 17, ETH futures open interest grew 26% week over week, indicating that capital via multiple paths is simultaneously betting on an upside move. The funding rate being neutral suggests the leveraged structure is temporarily healthy. In addition, global macro market risk appetite has rebounded (geopolitical tensions easing, and the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged), driving a broad rebound across mainstream risk assets, and the crypto market has attracted liquidity accordingly. At the industry level, major financial institutions are advancing filings for ETFs and trust products. Mining companies have increased their ETH holdings and also maintained active staking activity, further reinforcing medium- to long-term market expectations. Multiple factors overlap and resonate, amplifying volatility. On-chain transfers remain generally stable, and there is no abnormal concentration of fund flows migrating between exchanges. What needs attention is that although the current market is lifted by the resonance of institutional capital and leverage, the continuous growth of futures positions combined with the spot price failing to rise above the 2400 USDT area will bring the risk of forced liquidation. Meanwhile, if ETF subscription inflows slow down or macro liquidity reverses, ETH spot support could weaken. Please focus on tracking ETF net inflows, changes in futures open interest, the macro news backdrop, and nearby support and resistance levels, and stay alert to short-term volatility and potential abrupt adjustments. For more real-time market information, please keep watching.

DWF Labs co-founder Andrei Grachev said the market is currently in a “boring” phase, with many important activities quietly underway. He advised investors to stay patient and look for a better timing. He emphasized that opportunities still exist in the market—such as holding Bitcoin or participating in altcoins—and urged retail investors to keep learning and remain optimistic.

Gate News message: On April 10, according to CME "FedWatch" data, before the CPI data is released, the probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points in April is 1.6%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 98.4%. Looking ahead to June, the probability of cumulative rate cuts of 25 basis points is 1.5%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 96.8%, and the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 25 basis points is 1.7%.

Gate News message. On April 9, according to the latest data from CME’s “FedWatch,” as of April 10, the probability that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady in April is 98.4%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 1.6%.

Market expectations are that the U.S. February PCE data will show that inflation pressures remain, with PCE rising to 0.4% month over month and 2.8% year over year. Core PCE is expected to be around 3.0% year over year, above the Federal Reserve’s target. The Federal Reserve may continue to hold the 3.50%-3.75% interest-rate range in April, while rate-cut expectations cool.

The Federal Reserve faces a complex situation with low-interest-rate policy. Even though a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran provides an opportunity for the global economy, energy price volatility could still keep inflation elevated. War is not the main obstacle to rate cuts; instead, it may intensify policy caution, hindering progress toward easing.

Gate News message, April 7, gold supporter Peter Schiff posted, saying that assuming Bitcoin drops to $10k by the end of 2026, it will still be the best-performing asset of the next decade. Schiff said he is sure Michael Saylor will rely on this to keep pushing up the price of Bitcoin and issue more shares to buy Bitcoin. But a 92% drop will make it the worst-performing investment for most long-term holders.

Deepfake AI is seriously threatening banks and KYC systems at crypto platforms, as attackers use tools that combine deepfakes and voice cloning to bypass identity verification. Financial experts recommend building a layered defense system to keep up with continuously evolving fraud tactics and protect digital identity security.

Russian economist Denis Astafiev said that during times of economic instability, cryptocurrency and related investment risks are extremely high, and he recommends that investors keep their allocation ratio between 5% and 10% to prevent losses.