Gate News reports that on March 26, according to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 6.2%, while the probability of holding rates steady is 93.8%. The probability of a total increase of 25 basis points by June is 19.9%, a total increase of 50 basis points is 1.0%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 79.2%.

On March 26, 2026, from 20:00 to 20:15 (UTC), ETH showed a strong short-term performance, with the price rising from 2046.39 USDT to 2080.46 USDT. The 15-minute interval achieved a +1.10% return, with a volatility of 1.66%. This fluctuation attracted significant market attention, with on-chain large transfers and activity surging, trading volume increasing markedly, indicating that both capital and liquidity are in active zones. The main driver of this movement is continuous large-scale buying of ETH by whales/institutions on the chain, accumulating over 103,300 ETH in the past 10 days.

On March 26, 2026, from 20:00 to 20:15 (UTC), the 15-minute spot Bitcoin (BTC) candlestick return was +0.97%, with a price range of 68,428.7 to 69,460.2 USDT and an amplitude of 1.51%. Trading volume during this period increased by 18% compared to the previous period, reaching approximately $120 million. Market attention significantly intensified, and short-term volatility increased. The main driver of this movement was strong active buying in the spot market. Specifically, multiple large transfers of ≥1000 BTC appeared on-chain, with net inflows of BTC on major trading platforms totaling approximately 28.

From 17:45 to 18:00 (UTC) on March 26, 2026, ETH prices briefly declined within the range of 2045.86 to 2066.97 USDT. The 15-minute return was -0.85%, with a volatility of 1.02%. This fluctuation drew market attention, as the volatility was significantly higher than usual, indicating increased uncertainty about ETH's short-term trend. The main drivers of this movement were liquidity tightening, characterized by a sharp drop in active addresses and large institutional staking. On March 25, the number of on-chain active addresses for ETH decreased by 10%.

On March 26, 2026, from 17:45 to 18:00 (UTC), Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a -0.69% return within 15 minutes, with a price range of $68,385.8 to $68,956.2 USDT and an amplitude of 0.83%. Short-term volatility increased, market attention rapidly heightened, showing concentrated downward pressure. The main driver of this movement was the approaching options expiration, with related position investors adjusting short-term holdings in response to the "maximum pain" zone ($75,000–$80,000), combined with the put/call ratio of options.

ARK Invest Digital Asset Research Director Lorenzo Valente pointed out that the importance of Elon Musk recruiting former crypto wallet founder Benji Taylor as the chief designer for the X platform may be underestimated. His background could bring new directions for X, including wallets and on-chain payments.

Last week, institutional investors sold a net of $11 billion in U.S. stocks, the largest single-week sell-off in nearly five weeks. Hedge funds, on the other hand, bought a net of $1.8 billion, ending four weeks of selling. Overall, U.S. stocks experienced a net outflow of $9.3 billion, with a total outflow of $25.5 billion over 16 weeks, indicating that institutional investors are gradually shifting to a wait-and-see stance.

On March 26, the cryptocurrency market showed mixed performance. The top five gainers were Midnight (+7.62%), DeXe (+5.45%), Ondo (+1.23%), UNUS SED LEO (+0.80%), and Nexo (+0.70%). The top five losers were Siren (-27.08%), River (-18.29%), Kite (-14.06%), MemeCore (-10.62%), and Aave (-7.61%).

Gate News reports that on March 26, Elon Musk's X platform lost a lawsuit alleging that advertisers boycotted the platform.

Gate News: On March 26, OpenClaw founder Peter Steinberger announced on X that Discrawl 0.2.0 has been officially released. The new version has been optimized for data synchronization speed. Peter Steinberger stated that the tool is now in daily use for analyzing OpenClaw.