#美国证券交易委员会推进数字资产监管框架创新 The market has been waiting for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates. But on the other hand, expectations and actual implementation are two different things—once tonight’s CPI data is released, those institutional investors will find an excuse to exit.

First, it’s important to understand that Japan, as a traditional low-interest-rate financing currency, when it raises rates, carry trades must be closed. What does this mean? A large amount of capital will be pulled out of risk assets. The difference is that this is not just emotional fluctuation—liquidity is genuinely flowing out, which directly lowers the "water level" in the crypto market, with a considerable impact.

Some might say, isn’t the Fed’s QE just adding water? In theory, yes, but the actual effect is somewhat discounted. Currently, the Fed’s shift is not an "unlimited liquidity" move; there are still concerns about inflation, and the easing space is limited. Moreover, the funds injected by QE have a clear path—usually first flowing into core assets like $BTC, then gradually spreading outward. The actual amount that can flow into the crypto space is limited and cannot fill the liquidity gap created by Japan’s rate hike.

When will the market improve? Right now is a phase of institutional rational withdrawal, and the real turning point is likely next year. The key depends on the new policies after the Fed leadership change—only when global liquidity re-enters an easing cycle can the market be sufficiently fueled to trigger the next wave of rallies. $ETH