#比特币价格走势分析 Over the years of watching the market, the thing I fear the most is when price signals and on-chain signals conflict. I experienced this loss at the end of the bull run in 2017—technical indicators were everywhere, but prices started to turn down, and in the end, many people caught a falling knife at the peak. So now, seeing the activity continuously rise, my first reaction is not excitement, but a reminder of those historical lessons.

However, the logic this time is indeed worth pondering. The Liveliness indicator mentioned by TXMC essentially reflects the trading frequency and holding period of on-chain tokens—when more new capital flows in and tokens change hands at higher price levels, this indicator will rise. Looking at the halving cycle in 2020, such leading indicators often reflect real demand 3-6 months in advance.

The key is that, although the price is still fluctuating now, the activity is on the rise, indicating that the underlying demand truly exists, it just hasn't been fully priced in yet. This is somewhat similar to the situation at the end of 2015—at that time, Bitcoin was hovering around $400, but on-chain activity had already begun to recover, leading to a small bull run in 2016 six months later.

However, to be honest, it's too arbitrary to draw conclusions based on a single indicator. It is necessary to look at several dimensions together, including the inflow and outflow of exchanges, the accumulation trends of large holders, and macro liquidity. History tells us that the confirmation of a bull run often does not lie in the price, but in the moment when all signals start to align. Currently, the rise in activity is indeed a positive signal, but the best practice is still to be patient and wait for more dimensional data to validate whether this story can continue.