# 比特币价格走势分析

#比特币价格走势分析 When I saw this wave of data, I was reminded of the lessons learned from being played for suckers over the years. CryptoQuant's risk aversion indicator is approaching the high-risk zone, and historically, this position is often a precursor to a pullback—this is nothing new; I've seen it too many times in a Bear Market.
The key is that the profit and loss score has dropped to -3, and the losses from UTXO are extremely concentrated. What does this indicate? It indicates that the chips in the hands of retail investors are highly concentrated in a state of loss. Bitcoin has pul

#比特币价格走势分析 When I saw the SOPR ratio fall to 1.35, reaching a new low for the year, I was reminded of a saying: "The best investment moments often come during the most troubling times."
The signal of seller's exhaustion is actually reminding us that the panic chips in the market are gradually being digested. Those investors who hurriedly took profits at high levels have basically finished releasing their sell orders. According to historical patterns, whenever the SOPR falls to this level, it often indicates that a local bottom is forming.
But here I want to emphasize one point – understan

#比特币价格走势分析 Over the years of watching the market, the thing I fear the most is when price signals and on-chain signals conflict. I experienced this loss at the end of the bull run in 2017—technical indicators were everywhere, but prices started to turn down, and in the end, many people caught a falling knife at the peak. So now, seeing the activity continuously rise, my first reaction is not excitement, but a reminder of those historical lessons.
However, the logic this time is indeed worth pondering. The Liveliness indicator mentioned by TXMC essentially reflects the trading frequency and ho

#比特币价格走势分析 The BWT divergence pattern has appeared again, this time it's quite interesting. Previously, in May 2022, after the divergence broke, it directly entered a bear market. The current pattern is similar but the background is different – the forced selling of panic chips is gradually being cleared, which indeed provides the conditions for a rebound.
The key is how to deal with this rebound. I've been observing several traders who excel at short-term operations recently, and their position allocation logic is quite clear: before the divergence is completely broken, they test the

#比特币价格走势分析 Bitcoin is now like a ticking time bomb, appearing stable but actually full of undercurrents. CryptoQuant's risk-averse model has approached a high-risk zone, and historical data tells us this usually means a pullback is imminent. The profit and loss score has dropped to -3, and the concentration of loss UTXOs is off the charts, which is a bear market signal.
Currently, a 32% pullback has not yet reached the panic sell-off level, but it has already exceeded the normal cycle's 20-25% pullback range. We are in the most awkward "middle ground"—neither extreme enough nor safe e

#比特币价格走势分析 Bitcoin has reached a moment to test confidence again! Looking at the latest on-chain data analysis, the BWT indicator shows an interesting divergence pattern – this often means that panic chips are gradually being cleared.
To be honest, every time market sentiment falls into extremes, it becomes the most interesting observation window. When long-held positions are forced to sell at a loss, it often reflects a true market capitulation. Historical data tells us that this kind of signal usually indicates that the conditions for a rebound are in place. Of course, the wave of explosive

#比特币价格走势分析 Uniswap CCA's first auction is 59 million USD, and this operation is indeed interesting. There was no sniping, no time-based competition, just a slow and transparent way for everyone to discover the price together, and the final transaction price was 59% higher than the reserve price. This design concept is quite fair.
The key is that this money and token reserves will be used to provide initial liquidity for the v4 pool, essentially directly injecting the proceeds from the auction into the secondary market to support liquidity. From the project's perspective, this approach

#比特币价格走势分析 Bitcoin at $80,000 is indeed worth following. From on-chain data, the recent movements of Whale wallets have been relatively stable, with no obvious panic selling signals in large transfers. Considering the year-end funding situation and institutions' annual report sprint, there may indeed be fluctuations in December.
However, judgments based solely on "intuition" have limited reference significance. The more critical aspect is to track the changes in contract positions around this price level—if short positions accumulate significantly in this area, it may actually become a dr

#比特币价格走势分析 I just saw an analysis saying that Bitcoin is currently in a "risk aversion" high-risk zone, and I'm feeling a bit nervous😅 I heard that this indicator combines volatility, exchange inflows, and funding rate to assess market fragility, it sounds so professional, but I haven't fully understood it yet...
The key point is that the researcher mentioned the profit and loss score has dropped to -3. What does this mean? It seems to indicate that the people losing money are particularly concentrated? Moreover, a -32% drawdown has already exceeded the normal range (-20% to -25%), b

#比特币价格走势分析 Wow! The Bitcoin activity indicator has been rising? 🚀 What does this mean? Everyone knows it well — new capital is flooding in, but it hasn't fully reflected in the price yet, this is the real underlying signal!
Those analysts who say the bear market isn't over can be quiet now; on-chain data doesn't lie. Activity = real money transactions, which equals supply changing hands at higher price levels, which equals new investors continuously adding strength. The current price drop is just a shakeout, preparing for the next wave of skyrocketing.
The bull market cycle isn&#