The five major institutions' outlook on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2026

BlockBeats News, January 28 — Five major institutions including JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup preview the Federal Reserve’s rate cut pace in 2026 and tonight’s rate decision focus as follows:

Barclays Bank

Rate cut forecast: Total of 50 basis points (June and December).

Viewpoint: Expect the FOMC to signal that it is not in a hurry to cut rates further. The committee may indicate that the current risks of employment decline and inflation rise are becoming balanced.

Powell’s stance: He is expected to reinforce the FOMC’s position of not rushing to cut rates.

Bank of America

Rate cut forecast: Total of 50 basis points (June and July).

Viewpoint: Political factors may become a focus at the January meeting. The Federal Reserve will likely maintain the status quo, with no change in risk balance expected.

Powell’s stance: The press conference may focus on political rather than policy issues. However, in terms of policy, current market pricing could bring unexpected dovish risks.

Citigroup

Rate cut forecast: Total of 50 basis points (June and September).

Viewpoint: If the next rate cut aims at policy normalization rather than addressing urgent risks, the decision-makers may seek a broader consensus than in December last year, contingent on more clear progress in inflation.

Powell’s stance: He is likely to emphasize that the three recent rate cuts have helped stabilize the employment market and that the current policy stance is sound, suitable for assessing its impact.

JPMorgan Chase

Rate cut forecast: No rate cuts in 2026.

Main viewpoint: After completing three risk management rate cuts earlier, many FOMC members have indicated that now is an appropriate time to pause.

Powell’s stance: He is expected to indicate that the current policy is sufficient to address the risks faced by the dual mandate and will avoid discussing various political issues involving the Federal Reserve.

Wells Fargo

Rate cut forecast: Total of 50 basis points (March and June).

Viewpoint: A strong argument is that the longer the FOMC waits to cut rates, the higher the threshold for further easing from an economic perspective.

Powell’s stance: He is unlikely to hint at further easing at the next meeting in March. He is likely to be asked about the Department of Justice investigation, but the response is expected to be consistent with previous statements. (Jin10)