#深度创作营 The impact of the US-Iran war on the crypto circle can be divided into three stages: short-term panic selling, medium-term supply and demand/hedging game, and long-term macro and regulatory trends. The core is a decline followed by differentiation.

1. Short-term (1-3 days): Panic selling, full-scale plunge

- Market performance: Once the news broke, the crypto market instantly plummeted. On 2026-02-28, Bitcoin dropped below $63,200 within an hour, Ethereum fell over 4.6%, and mainstream coins declined by more than 5%; approximately 1.2 million traders were liquidated in 24 hours, totaling $800 million.

- Core reasons:

- Crypto is a high-volatility risk asset. Institutions/large holders first reduce positions to hedge risks, with funds flowing into gold and US Treasuries.

- 24/7 crypto trading becomes the primary floodgate for global panic.

- Chain reactions of high-leverage contract liquidations worsen the decline.

2. Medium-term (1-4 weeks): Supply and demand/hedging game, trend differentiation

- Positive factors (push upward):

- Iran’s urgent demand surge: Iran is cut off from SWIFT, making crypto the only cross-border asset transfer channel, leading to a surge in local buying.

- Hashrate contraction: Iran is a major mining hub; shutdowns of mining farms → global hashrate decreases → mining costs rise → scarcity increases.

- Energy inflation: Rising oil prices → increased electricity costs → higher mining thresholds, tightening supply.

- Global hedging: Multiple countries worry about asset freezes, allocating crypto to hedge sovereignty risks.

- Negative factors (push downward):

- Ongoing war → global economic slowdown, rising inflation → delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts → high interest rates suppress risk assets.

- Stricter regulation: The US may strengthen anti-money laundering and sanctions scrutiny on crypto due to the war.

- Trend judgment: After a short-term plunge, a rebound with volatility is likely, but it’s difficult to quickly return to pre-war highs. Bitcoin outperforms altcoins.

3. Long-term (months+): Macro and regulatory direction

- If the war ends shortly: sentiment recovers, the crypto market returns to the main themes of Federal Reserve policies and halving events.

- If the war prolongs and expands:

- Energy inflation persists → stagflation expectations → crypto initially suppresses then rises (“digital gold” attribute highlighted).

- Accelerated de-dollarization globally → long-term increase in cross-border crypto payments demand.

- Regulatory tightening → compliant coins (BTC/ETH) benefit more, small coins become marginalized.

4. Impact differences among various coins

- Bitcoin: First drops, then stabilizes; hedging attribute gradually emerges; least volatile, most resilient.

- Ethereum: Follows Bitcoin, with larger declines and slightly weaker rebound elasticity.

- Mainstream altcoins (SOL/BNB/XRP): Larger drops, differentiated rebounds, more conservative capital flow.

- Small coins/shitcoins: Liquidity dries up, hard to rebound after crashes, very high risk.

5. Operations and risk tips

- Short-term: Stay away from high leverage, avoid bottom-fishing during rapid drops; spot traders can buy the dip in BTC/ETH gradually.

- Medium-term: Monitor war intensity, oil prices, Federal Reserve statements, and control positions.

- Risks: Geopolitical black swans, liquidation, regulatory raids, liquidity exhaustion.