Today's Market Overview 1

Not bad. Woke up this morning and saw 74k—this SFP short ultimately didn't disappoint. It hit TP1.
However, I missed the intraday long opportunity at 72.8k during sleep, which was also a valid long entry model.
For the rest of today's price action, anyone with some technical analysis knowledge should be able to see the pattern. If it can hold above 74k, we continue upward all the way. If it can't hold, then it will keep returning to the lower range, wherever it goes.
Let's continue to look at what various data points from the past few days are telling us ↓

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Chart 1: From a funding perspective, this rally saw Binance and Coinbase pushing simultaneously.
Coinbase's 400 BTC dump during the CME open was surprisingly absorbed by passive orders (see my previous posts).
Then, almost synchronized buying began on both sides, which is rare, especially since this happened on a US weekend night. Usually, such moves are triggered by institutional models over the weekend, leading to buy signals that are then followed by opening longs after CME opens.
In short, both futures and spot markets are currently very bullish.
If my Asia session short entry model was betting that the funding during Asia hours would only cause an SFP at 74k rather than a squeeze above 75k...
Then, under current sentiment, combined with the positive pre-market US futures, after TP1 I need to seriously consider whether to keep the remaining half of this short at breakeven or to continue with the 74.6k stop loss set before sleep.
The scenario for further upward movement today definitely exists.

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Chart 2: Now, let's look at the order book situation.
The sell orders at 74k have already been absorbed, and no new orders have appeared near 74k.
There are still two scenarios:
1. If the price retraces back into the lower range and provides an opportunity for the fresh capital that entered at 74k to re-enter, then sell orders at 74k will reappear, bringing resistance back. The next challenge—like from March 4th's 74k to now—would be to break through again.
2. If after today there’s no pullback for new entries, the price will continue pushing upward to test 75k, the major long/short dividing line. (Too many people are holding 75k call options; I’ll discuss that later.)

This brings us back to the initial scenario: either hold and push higher, or go back where it came from.
Meanwhile, there was a spoofing order on spot at 72.8k support today, which has already been withdrawn. This indicates a potential scenario for further downside to fill the gap.
Additionally, perpetual contracts have posted a new wave of sell orders below 75k.

On the other hand, Ethereum sentiment is very strong right now. Above 2300, the outlook is very optimistic. There are no significant large orders.

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Chart 3: Let’s see where the longs and shorts are concentrated.
During the recent attempts to break through 74k...
From 73.6k to 74k, a large number of Binance longs—over 3,000 BTC—are trapped.
After a downward wave during the day, this creates a huge trapped position, forming a resistance zone.
Therefore, the next move depends on whether spot buying can come in strongly after US market opens (such as daily ETF inflows of $300-500 million) to break through this trapped long zone.
If spot buying isn’t strong enough, relying solely on perpetual funding will be difficult to resolve these trapped longs.
So, it reverts to the previous scenario: break above and hold, give these longs relief, and challenge 75k.
Otherwise, if it can’t break higher, the trapped longs will create resistance around 74k, and once it’s confirmed that it can’t go higher, a stampede downward will ensue.
Currently, short sentiment is stable. Many shorts that entered above 74k took profit around 73k.
There are not many trapped shorts below; only a small cluster around 72.5k—several hundred.

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Chart 4:
From the current TPO profile, this setup looks very healthy for longs.
The auction continues upward. After failing to break 74k on the second attempt, the weekend pullback didn’t breach the newly formed value area below 70k.
Meanwhile, after today’s continued upward breakout, a new value area is forming above the previous support at 72.5k, around ).
If it consolidates here, there’s significant upside potential.
If it pulls back, the goal is to fill the imbalance zone below.
Pullbacks around 72k to 72.5k would still be considered healthy.

To be continued.