$BTC There's nothing new here. Just keep an eye on the Iran-US conflict. So far, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Although WTI crude oil prices haven't sustainably broken through $100, mainly due to IEA releases, I did a rough calculation today, and the IEA can only sustain this for about a month. If the conflict isn't resolved in more than a month, or possibly even less time, the market is already pricing in that the Federal Reserve will need to raise rates this year.

This is the most uncomfortable situation for Trump. If oil prices drive up US inflation, even with [someone] taking office, it won't be easy for the Federal Reserve to convince more than half of its committee members to support rate cuts. And the root cause is the conflict with Iran that Trump initiated. Although Trump keeps saying the conflict will end quickly, based on the current situation, it will likely take three to four weeks.