Power777

$BTC This is because the crypto market is more driven by liquidity than other asset classes, as it lacks fundamental support like stocks or commodities. This makes it more forward-looking rather than reactive, while stocks and other markets react more slowly to these changes, relying more on current data and policy changes rather than pricing in macro tightening in advance. Through our technical analysis, we were able to predict this shift. In the chart below, you can see that BTC peaked and began its downtrend phase before financial conditions started to tighten(yields rose). When yields ris

$BTC For the DXY, the 100-101 zone remains critically important, as we are once again seeing rejection at this level, which further highlights its significance for investors and asset markets. Above this zone, the DXY will quickly move toward 105, putting pressure on asset markets, while below this zone, the DXY is only temporarily strong. My bias remains unchanged: it has already bottomed out on a macro level and will eventually regain this zone.

$BTC The S&P 500 index experienced a nice short-term rebound from the 6500-6600 area over the past few hours, following a significant drop from its highs. As anticipated last week, we have already seen a positive reaction in this area, also supported by emerging headlines, and a retest of 6700-6800 remains possible. However, as long as the index trades below the weekly 21 EMA, it is difficult to assume that a bottom for the year has formed.
At this level, any retest of this area can be viewed as a bearish retest. The medium-term target still remains at 6300-6000, and if appropriate, we will c

$BTC Markets opened poorly this week due to recent developments in the Middle East, with escalating tensions and concerns about a global hawkish shift, particularly regarding rising oil prices. Currently, Brent crude is trading at $110 per barrel, while US crude is at $101.5, a situation not yet reflected in inflation data in the coming weeks. Clearly, the longer this situation persists, the more severe the medium-term impact on markets will be.
Even if an agreement is reached in the short term, elevated energy prices will continue to show effects in the medium term due to damage to critical

$BTC For Trump, it's no longer a matter of whether or not to engage, but rather that regardless of whether he does or doesn't, he has to start bearing the costs. The same applies to the market—as long as this conflict remains on the brink of escalation, what's being traded is not short-term sentiment, but the risks of high oil prices, reflation, and liquidity tightening.
Looking back at Bitcoin data, Trump's antics today have already impacted $BTC. The $70,000 level that had held fairly steady couldn't hold up and dropped directly to around $68,000. Now we'll have to watch the reaction from A

$BTC Every weekend I worry most about Trump causing some trouble. By Sunday I thought nothing would happen, but here we go again. Just days ago, Trump was solemnly promising to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, and true to his word, he announced today that if Iran doesn't open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, the US will completely destroy Iran's power plants.
By tonight, Iran's response came. Not only did Iran say it would completely blockade the Strait of Hormuz, but it's also preparing to launch retaliatory strikes, targeting Middle Eastern energy and other critical infrastructure. Iran

$BTC The decline is more like a deterioration in marginal liquidity that causes funds to shift from "adding positions" to "preserving capital." In "preservation mode," institutions are not "bearish and exiting," but rather "first reducing risk exposure," with "position structure + risk control mechanisms" playing a role.
Therefore, returning to the original question "Did American institutions run out of money, causing the decline?" — a more accurate way to put it is that it is not the lack of funds in institutions that caused the decline, but rather that the cash ratio of institutions is too

$BTC More critically, today's decline exhibits these characteristics. The earnings reports have become the last straw that broke the camel's back—not because the reports are that bad, but because the market has no more room for error. Earnings season is fundamentally about two things: expectations and volatility. When expectations have been beaten down to extreme optimism, earnings reports don't need to be terrible—they just need to be not good enough to be treated as negative by the market. When positions are already heavily loaded, earnings reports don't need to trigger a blowup; they just

$BTC US aggregate investable funds as a % of US equity market cap ( The ratio of total US investable cash to total US stock market capitalization has dropped to historic lows, indicating that the overall market is currently in a state of low cash availability, full positions, and heightened sensitivity to new liquidity.
In plain terms: everyone is essentially fully invested with no cash left to buy the dip.
Of course, low cash doesn't mean institutions are bankrupt—rather, it means the marginal buying power of incremental demand is declining. All it takes is even a moderate bearish catalyst f

$BTC Are U.S. institutions out of cash? Is that the reason for the decline? Today's sudden consecutive downturn isn't just affecting stocks and cryptocurrencies—gold and silver are also falling, and the dollar is declining too. My first thought was whether institutions are exiting positions. So what's the reason for their exit? Then it occurred to me: institutions probably don't have much cash left.
Last week, we looked at global fund manager allocations and saw that cash positions hit a historic low of 3.2%. This indicates that fund managers have insufficient cash to continue driving market

$BTC Bitcoin spot ETF has experienced net outflows for the second consecutive day, which aligns with our previous assessment. After all, momentum-chasing and panic-selling investors are currently the main drivers of buying and selling activity. When there are favorable expectations, investors chase the rally, but once they discover the expectations fall short, they begin to sell. However, the current selling volume is not particularly high, indicating that investors are still showing restraint. After all, recent trading has been characterized mainly by minor fluctuations.

$BTC Thursday's ETH spot ETF data was somewhat weaker. On Wednesday, BlackRock's investors only sold a small amount, but on Thursday they directly sold 1.5% of holdings. Investors really do move fast when the market is falling. After this single transaction, BlackRock's net inflows over the past two weeks have turned directly into net outflows. Not to mention other institutions—right now, traditional investors still have higher tolerance for $BTC

$BTC Behind that, there's still a mess of tariff issues waiting for Trump. Whether new tariffs will be implemented, how they'll be executed, how to handle refunds for old tariffs—plus the relentless pursuit of Powell will also delay Vosh's time taking office. As a result, Powell might even be "forced" to act as interim Fed chairman and maintain a hardline stance for a few more months. That would really be shooting himself in the foot.
Looking back at Bitcoin's data, on the last working day before the weekend, although US stocks fell quite badly, $BTC still maintained around 70,000 dollars wit

$BTC There's nothing new here. Just keep an eye on the Iran-US conflict. So far, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Although WTI crude oil prices haven't sustainably broken through $100, mainly due to IEA releases, I did a rough calculation today, and the IEA can only sustain this for about a month. If the conflict isn't resolved in more than a month, or possibly even less time, the market is already pricing in that the Federal Reserve will need to raise rates this year.
This is the most uncomfortable situation for Trump. If oil prices drive up US inflation, even with [someone] taking offic

$BTC Here's why you shouldn't easily add leverage in the current market—after all, everything is event-driven these days. Sometimes in one second people are calling for a bull return, and the next second a conflict turns it into a bear market. The current market is too sensitive to information, so you still need to stay cautious.
Looking at Bitcoin's data, the turnover rate has increased slightly, and trading volume is rising. The main participants in the turnover are still short-term investors, especially those who've been buying the dips over the last two days—their turnover has been very o

$BTC The market moves so quickly that I don't have the ability to do short-term trading, so I've just been buying dual-currency products and staying in spectator mode this whole time. Anyway, my view is simple: whenever the price drops to a level I think is suitable, I buy. I don't short, I don't go long. One moment I was lamenting the escalation of the war and rising oil prices, with WTI even breaking through $100, and even $BTC was about to break below $69,000. The next moment, the IEA announced that member states released 426 million barrels of oil and that it's already available for use.