📝 April 13 Morning Market Analysis: The Islamabad Observation Period Is Advancing Through Independent Verification! Limited Navigation Through Hormuz Remains in Stable Operation + Toll Case Continues to Be Implemented, and Geopolitical Risk Pricing Enters a “Data-Validation–Led Narrow Range Balance” Mode!

Trump’s final ultimatum has now lasted 156+ hours, and Truth Social remains silent in the morning session. After Iran and the U.S. delegations made contact in Islamabad, the observation period is advancing independently, with no signals of rupture or any sudden escalation. According to real-time Hormuz AIS data, navigation vessels are staying stable in the 23–28 ship range (a mild rebound in the morning, still mainly regional-related ships), and the Kharg Island oil tanker toll case is landing normally according to the established schedule. In the morning, oil prices are undergoing narrow-range fluctuation between $94.9 and $95.9 (Brent near $95.30), and overall geopolitical sentiment shows the characteristics of “low-level stabilization driven by negotiation expectations.”

After the cryptocurrency market steadied at low levels in the morning, it gradually warmed up with a modest recovery; leverage liquidations continue to drop by 0.3%, and liquidity shifted from extreme caution to a slight buildup. BTC is making a mild rebound from the 71.3k morning low to trade in the 71.8k–72.3k range, initially testing the 72.0k level, but trading activity remains cautious, and no obvious surge in volume has been observed.

📊 Morning Data (as of 2026/04/13 09:13 UTC)
• BTC: $71,850 | 24h -0.7% (71.8k-72.3k has turned into the core morning consolidation range)
• ETH: $2,212 | 24h -0.8% (ETH/BTC relative strength has slightly recovered)
• Global Total Market Cap: $2.488 trillion | -0.8%
• Fear & Greed Index: 22 (Extreme Fear)🔴 (still in the historical bottom range)

🔍 Market Reaction Interpretation
The morning shows a pattern of “mild repair at low levels + shrinking volume for buildup,” with BTC successfully holding above the 71.5k level, but breaking 72.0k still needs confirmation through trade. Overall, it continues to diverge from traditional assets in rhythm. The Islamabad independent observation period + Hormuz AIS data running in an orderly manner have become the core pricing logic of the current market view; the fear index’s bottom has seen a small rebound. Short-term rebound momentum is slowly accumulating, but the slope remains relatively gentle.

⚡ Today’s True Variables
Whether subsequent contacts between Iran and the U.S. will release new signals, whether Hormuz navigation data can continue to recover throughout the day, and the defensive strength of oil prices near $95. As long as there are no sudden negative events today, the geopolitical game will keep maintaining the current “data validation + narrow range balance” rhythm.

🎯 Outlook for the Next Phase
Geopolitical maneuvering + macro expectations remain the core main line for April.
• BTC 71,000-71,500 range continues to serve as the key support in the morning; short-term resistance 73k-74k unchanged
• The medium-term target $78,000–$82,000 remains unchanged; the probability of an acceleration window in mid-April is still the same
• During the 2-week ceasefire period, if there is no extreme escalation, the main logic for the rebound will continue, but in the short term it will mainly be low-level consolidation to digest

One-sentence summary:
The morning’s mild rebound from low levels holds the 71.8k–72.3k range + liquidity has a slight buildup; what is being digested is the continuation of independent verification in the Islamabad observation period—Hormuz AIS data rising in an orderly way + oil prices defending near $95 + the Fear & Greed Index at 22 still in the historical bottom range. Position remains unchanged; patiently wait for today’s tangible progress, as well as updates to oil prices and AIS data.
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