Hormuz is blocked—yet BTC is rising? The world has finally gone crazy in the way I’m familiar with.

Middle East crude shipped to Asia, from 13.4 million barrels per day, directly fell to 4 million barrels.

Down 70%.

This is not an economic crisis. It’s a countdown to war.

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Beijing time, April 13th, 10:00 p.m.

15 U.S. warships, P-8 patrol aircraft, E-2 early warning planes, and drone swarms sealed off the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran announced the highest combat alert. Missiles loaded; drone inventory is “ample.”

The Philippines declared a national energy emergency. Gasoline prices doubled.

Indonesia and Vietnam ordered remote work. Australia began using fuel reserves.

The United Nations said: Energy + food shocks could push 32.5 million people into poverty.

So what next?

BTC is up 4.5%, trading above $74,000.

Japanese and Korean stock markets opened higher today; KOSPI rose 2.4%.

Go on—take a good look at it.

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The market isn’t crazy—it’s accepting it early

Many people will ask: Isn’t war bad news? Why is BTC rising?

I’m telling you: the way you’re asking the question is wrong.

The correct way to ask is: When does the market start treating war as good news?

The answer is: when everyone knows the war can’t be avoided.

Nuclear negotiations? They collapsed.

The U.S. demanded Iran stop for 20+ years and get all uranium shipped out. Iran said at most 5 years, and the uranium wouldn’t leave the country.

Vance put it very plainly: Iran’s negotiating team has no final authorization at all—what’s the point of negotiating?

But here’s the interesting part—according to a report by The New York Times, Iran internally is studying “giving up uranium enrichment as a condition for ending the war.”

What does that mean?

Fight first, talk later.

The market understood.

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Let’s talk about why BTC is rising—don’t try to drag “safe-haven” narratives into this

Don’t recite the tired line of “Bitcoin is digital gold.”

When real war breaks out, what ordinary people think about first is how to exchange for dollars, and how to buy canned food.

So why is it rising?

Because there’s a group of people whose money can’t get out.

Think about it:

When Hormuz is blocked, oil prices rocket. When oil prices rocket, inflation rockets. When inflation rockets, fiat currency depreciation accelerates.

If you have 100 million USDT, what do you want to switch into?

JY? Japan is right next to Asia—when oil is cut off, Japan is hit the hardest.

EUR? Europe’s oil also goes through Hormuz.

Physical goods? Shipping insurance is now priced absurdly high.

In the end, the only thing that can quickly cross borders, doesn’t rely on physical transport, and isn’t tied to any country—only BTC.

Not because it’s that great.

It’s because everything else is worse.

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While ordinary people are panicking, the wealthy have already started moving

Look at Circle (CRCL)—it rose 7% last night.

Stablecoin infrastructure, in a high-volatility environment, is treated as a “defensive allocation.”

Translated into plain human terms, it means:

Big money hasn’t run away. They’re looking for a safer position to re-enter from.

People in the Philippines can’t afford gas, and Indonesian office workers are forced to go back to remote work.

And another group is taking their wealth, packing it from the cracks of this physical world, and stuffing it into the blockchain.

The United Nations says 32.5 million people will fall into poverty.

Who says that? Who’s responsible? Nobody.

The rules of the world have never been designed for most people. Most people are just built into the rules.

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Over the next three months, you need to think clearly about a few things

First, oil won’t get cheap.

If the blockade lasts three months, refineries in the U.S. and Europe will cut production, and aviation fuel, diesel, and LNG will face severe shortages. Everything’s transportation cost rises, and everything goes up.

Second, don’t fantasize about “buying the dip.”

This isn’t a bear market—it’s chaos. Bear markets have a bottom; chaos doesn’t.

Third, BTC could keep rising, but the volatility may be so big you won’t be able to sleep.

This isn’t value investing. It’s speculation during wartime. You can join in—but you need to know clearly what you’re gambling on.

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In our generation, we’ve never experienced a real global supply-chain breakdown.

We thought online shopping, filling up at the pump, and supermarket shelves full to the brim were just “how things are.”

They’re not.

That was just a byproduct of peace.

Once peace gets discounted, all those “how things are” will be taken back one by one.

BTC is up—not because it won.

But because everything else lost.

You don’t need to understand Bitcoin. What you need to understand is: once the physical world starts locking doors, someone will always climb in through a window.

How long can that window hold?

Who knows.

Anyway, the door is already closed.

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Do you think BTC can reach 100,000 within three months? Or will it drop back to 60,000? #美军封锁霍尔木兹海峡 #Gate广场四月发帖挑战 $BTC $ETH