Tonight, news of the complete opening of the Strait for passage has been released, but how the actual passage will proceed can be verified over the weekend. If the number of commercial ships passing through indeed increases significantly, I believe the biggest positive impact will have been realized (there may be further negotiation benefits later, but the timing is highly uncertain). If commercial ships are still proven to be unable to pass effectively, then after a pullback, there should still be opportunities for further surges.

As the US-Iran war develops to this point, the likelihood of further military action is quite low; if it happens, it’s most likely to be in 2027, after Trump has dealt with the midterm elections.
Since this round of rebound, BTC’s total network holdings growth has been too rapid; the current holdings are the same as when the price was around 85,000 a few months ago, but the current price is only over 77,000, indicating leverage is quite high. The fuel is already sufficient, especially tonight, with open interest jumping sharply. During the recent rebound over the past half month, funding rates have fluctuated between positive and negative, with an overall negative trend in the past three days. This shows that as the market rebounds, more people are bearish, and short sellers need to pay funding fees. Under these circumstances, a smooth short-term decline is unlikely; the trend is expected to continue with these two-week characteristics—small-scale liquidation-driven drops, followed by intermittent positive news that pushes prices back up.
Although the biggest geopolitical positive has been realized, negotiations still have room for further benefits, but the impact is expected to diminish over time and with increasing uncertainty.

Overall, my personal view is that the market is clearly bearish, but I don’t think prices will immediately experience a one-sided decline. It’s very likely to maintain high-level oscillations, and even before a real drop, there may be another small rebound for a period, sparking some FOMO sentiment. If this is the case, small coins could have a short-term trend lasting 2–4 weeks; in fact, many small coins have already shown signs of movement this week.