DiaryOfAGreatWhiteB

Trump issues a final deadline, and market sentiment suddenly tightens. The crypto market leads the rebound, crude oil rapidly surges, gold fluctuates and declines, and U.S. stock futures further decline. Multiple assets show clear divergence, with funds rapidly switching between risk and safe-haven assets.

If BTC drops below $65,000, the cumulative liquidation strength of long positions on major CEXs will reach 600 million.

The non-farm payroll data released at 8:30 PM last night significantly exceeded expectations, with employment remaining exceptionally strong and the unemployment rate also decreasing simultaneously.
The stronger the non-farm data, the more resilient the U.S. economy indicates;
the stronger the economy, the less urgent the need for rate cuts.
Currently, whether in the U.S. stock market or the crypto space, the most relied-upon factor is the expectation of rate cuts.
So the issue isn't with the coins themselves, but with the rising cost of money expectations.
Short-term sentiment is leaning be

The Four-Year Cycle of Bitcoin
Following this pattern is simple—just look at the calendar.
By time, we can see the top dates of each BTC bull market.
December 17, 2017; November 10, 2021; October 7, 2025
The bottom dates of each BTC bear market.
January 14, 2015; December 15, 2018; November 22, 2022
It’s always about 4 years apart, so we define it as a 4-year cycle.
Why is there a cycle like this?
Because Bitcoin is different from traditional assets. Stocks can be issued in additional shares, and money can be overissued—at their core, it’s all controlled by humans who can manag

Is the big one still coming later?

Once cognition is formed, there is almost no marginal cost.
Real economy is earned with life.
Investment is earned with money.

Old Yellow Hair;
US stocks open: Let's start the discussion
US stocks close: Fire away!

He's not saying that Bitcoin is going to crash, but rather: if it drops one more time, that will be the final bottom range of this cycle!

It's not that the market has worsened; it's that the outside world has suddenly become tense, and funds are starting to seek safety.
Trump's speech was very tough on Iran,
and hinted at possible attacks on energy facilities and the Strait of Hormuz.
The market's first reaction: oil supplies might be cut off.
This triggered a chain reaction:
Oil prices surged, gold plummeted, stocks and the crypto market came under pressure.
So, it's not that the crypto market is having issues; it's that macro sentiment has suddenly deteriorated.

It's not that we're about to fall soon; the main players are using sideways trading to deceive you into thinking bearish. Most likely: first scare people, then rally.
And now it's just testing patience. The market is also very simple:
Above 69,300-69,100, there are people desperately selling; below 68,000-67,500, there are people desperately buying. The main players are oscillating in the middle, and many will mistake this for a decline, but it's actually just pretending to be weak to shake out traders.
Strategy:
Below 68,000: buy on dips
Around 69,300: do not chase long positions
If it really

Report on the situation of alts.
The altcoin market capitalization and exchange rate have pulled back for several weeks in a row, and are now approaching previous lows again. Whether the correction will continue this week, I think it will take a month or so to observe.
From the perspective of liquidity:
The delay in the arrival of the altcoin season was largely due to the on-chain market siphoning off too much speculative liquidity, for example, when Pumpfun issued coins, it was very popular and attracted a lot of attention and funds. Now the on-chain activity is not as vibrant, and even Pumpf

Does altcoin still have a chance to rise???
Here, the altcoin refers to other coins besides Bitcoin and Ethereum. I think it depends on how the projects behind these coins are developing.
If a project continues to advance and build, even if the token's empowerment is slightly lacking, I still believe there is a chance to make a comeback---at least the price will be higher than it is now. Many DeFi projects that have been continuously developing are of this kind.
But if a project hasn't been updated or made progress for a long time, then the future outcome of such altcoins will be a spiral to z

The Conspiracy of Ethereum: Understanding the Big Picture and Summarizing the Market Maker's Trading Logic of Ethereum
1. ETF listing serves as a bait, price halved to wash out chips
When the Ethereum spot ETF was just approved, the market was filled with cheers, but the price plummeted to around $1300, a drop of 70%. This is a typical "washout" - the main funds attract retail investors with good news, and then dump the stocks to gather shares. The market cap has fallen close to the total market cap of stablecoins in its ecosystem, which is its fundamental bottom line.
2. Rebounded from 1300

Why I've always been optimistic about $ETH
Ethereum is currently the strongest smart contract in the universe. Currently, less than 2% of its functionality has been developed.
ETH will eventually reach 10,000 each, 20,000 each. Once you buy it, hold on tight and don't let go easily.
It's really not too late to buy now. A great opportunity; if you have the money, buy half of ETH and BTC each, and then go to market making.
The returns are also around 4%-7%. Don't let the coins in your hands go to waste.
Since ETH switched to PoS, a staking mechanism has been introduced, which means that a portio

Currently, in terms of the mid-term trends of BTC and ETH, the overall structure still maintains a "long positions dominant" situation. As for the drop in the early morning, I tend to view it as a "bear trap" pullback.
The reasons for this market structure can be roughly summarized into the following two points:
First, the short positions in the futures market likely completed the final round of adding positions yesterday. Most of these newly added short positions are concentrated in the previously high price area, which happens to be the clearing zone with the highest trading volume in the pa