ChenJiaguanA

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ChenJiaguanA

1h ago

MicroStrategy is going crazy—weekly BTC purchases are skyrocketing dramatically
2020: 1,348 BTC per week
2021: 1,034 BTC per week
2022: 156 BTC per week
2023: 1,086 BTC per week
2024: 4,920 BTC per week
2025: 4,336 BTC per week
2026: 7,649 BTC per week
If the current growth rate is maintained, MicroStrategy will reach its goal of holding 1 million BTC by October of this year (Chen Jiaguan)

BTC-2.55%

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ChenJiaguanA

4h ago

BTC is approaching a critical level, and the whales' moves are starting to get interesting.
Currently, the price is testing $71,475 at the upper chip level, with short-term rebound momentum.
But three details warrant caution:
Dense whale sell orders above, overlapping liquidation zones, and open interest not keeping up.
This is likely liquidity harvesting:
First push up to trigger long liquidations, then face resistance from above.
Whether it's a real breakout or a fake one will be revealed shortly.

BTC-2.55%

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ChenJiaguanA

21h ago

During bear market phases, as long as it's not pumping higher, breaking through key resistance levels are all good shorting opportunities.
The short-term pressure is in the 71-72k range.
These two levels previously—I also told everyone you can short within this range.
Now with the price near 70.5k, watch if it breaks below 70k tonight.
If it does break, shorts currently held can still be maintained.
I still think it needs to go to 66k at least once before it rebounds higher.

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ChenJiaguanA

22h ago

If BTC's monthly closing price this month falls below 67k, the monthly chart will have declined for 6 consecutive months. This would continue to set a new record for the longest consecutive monthly decline since the bear market began. If the US and Iran continue fighting, big pancake is estimated to go to the 50k range.

BTC-2.55%

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ChenJiaguanA

03-23 09:18

BTC 4H
The second T9 has formed
Two large spot orders appeared at 67k and 65k
Liquidity indicates that if 67k breaks below, there will be a major liquidation of large positions

BTC-2.55%

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ChenJiaguanA

03-23 08:22

# Current Gold and Silver Plunging Over 6%, Compounded with US Stock Decline
This is a typical macro liquidity drainage triggering a liquidity crisis
Forced indiscriminate liquidation of high-liquidity assets to raise cash
Not a fundamental issue
BTC is passively following the decline, macro funds experiencing massive outflows
As a high-risk asset, it's impossible to remain unaffected
Inevitable contagion selling is bound to occur
Currently 68K is barely holding, but if US stocks continue deteriorating at market open
Once it breaks below 68K, it will directly trigger massive long liquidation o

BTC-2.55%

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ChenJiaguanA

03-23 05:01

High-level short positions are starting to close out
Low-level positions are quietly accumulating capital
BTC's morning rebound failed to break through the 45-minute EMA31 moving average
Currently no obvious large orders visible on the books
In the short term, we can focus on technical support and resistance levels
Look at direction after breakthrough:
Resistance: 68,500(EMA31)、69,410(EMA89+liquidation magnet zone)
Support: 67,200~67,300

BTC-2.55%

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ChenJiaguanA

03-22 12:28

BTC's 4H decline has a very rhythmic pattern—breaking through minor support and accelerating downward, then falling to the next support zone, bouncing back to repair, and then breaking down again.
This downward rhythm is very steady.
The next support level is at $63k—let's see if it breaks and triggers another wave of panic selling.
If we get another new low reaching $50k+, decisively buy the dip!!!
If you don't dare to buy at that level, you really shouldn't be trading anymore.
At the $50k+ price level, even if there's a small chance of going lower, it won't be much lower. (陈嘉冠)

BTC-2.55%

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ChenJiaguanA

03-22 08:44

BTC.
As we gradually approach the next halving
and are about to reach the 50% timeline to the next halving
based on historical data
we experience a decline in this area every time
look at the gray line representing the midpoint
every time we drop exactly to this midpoint
we may drop into it and subsequently rebound like during the 2025 halving
at that time the decline was approximately -20% (Chen Jiaguang)

BTC-2.55%

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ChenJiaguanA

03-22 06:39

BTC's Q1 was slightly worse than last year, which was also in the red.
ETH's Q1 also performed poorly, but nowhere near as bad as last year's start.
Last year's ETH start was extremely brutal, falling 45%. However, just 6 months later it touched an all-time high.
This perfectly illustrates how volatile the market has been over the past 1-2 years.
It seems to be random 1-2 quarters of gains, then a complete drawdown in the opposite direction.
This is a market that requires flexible adaptation. (Chen Jiaguan)

BTC-2.55%

ETH-2.51%

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ChenJiaguanA

03-21 12:14

Is it really like this?
Traders are predicting, but which trader exactly?
Unless oil prices and inflation continue to rise
there's little possibility of rate hikes
but it's quite contradictory now
unemployment is also rising
ordinary people have no wages, yet prices remain so high, how are we supposed to live
personally, I feel that once the war ends, oil prices will gradually return to normal
this year is just an observation year, the possibility of rate hikes is extremely small
similarly, expectations for rate cuts are also very small, even if there are some, the frequency and magnitude will

BTC-2.55%

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ChenJiaguanA

03-21 08:31

As long as ETH maintains above the 0.03 level relative to BTC, it still looks pretty good. If it can reclaim the ~0.032 level, that would be a strong signal and could also provide some breathing room for other altcoins. But to achieve this target, I think BTC and ETH first need to find some momentum on lower timeframes. BTC breaking through $72K and ETH breaking through $2.2K should help. Before that, the market is still very risk-averse, especially given BTC's recent rejections at the 72K+ region multiple times.

ETH-2.51%

BTC-2.55%

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ChenJiaguanA

03-20 14:49

Last night we provided attention to 71k immediately.
During midday we reminded again of the pressure in the 71-72k range.
The evening chart gave us the answer.
Started declining from 71.3k.
Lowest reached 69.5k (Chen Jiaguan)

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ChenJiaguanA

03-20 05:02

BTC 1H
In a sharp rebound
Failed to break out of the oscillation channel in the larger structure
Reversal has a high probability of going back to the bottom of the oscillation channel
In the smaller structure, the rebound is weakening
Intraday resistance zone at 71-72K

BTC-2.55%

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ChenJiaguanA

03-20 04:02

The market's biggest problem right now isn't that prices haven't risen—it's that the rallies lack quality.
After the market's sharp decline, BTC price is recovering and rising, but trading volume is dropping with no narrative. There are no short-term hot spots for speculation. Most altcoins are only passively pulled up by BTC/ETH rebounds with zero sustainability.
What does this tell us? It shows that capital hasn't truly flowed back in—instead, we're in a zero-sum game where everyone keeps stabbing each other.
Some see this as the end of a bull market? But the more realistic situation is that

BTC-2.55%

ETH-2.51%

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ChenJiaguanA

03-20 00:10

If BTC continues to fail at these interval breakouts, it will be very difficult for a long-term rebound to occur.
What we're seeing now is just further decline after the lows get swept following the start of this downtrend.
Price action on lower timeframes is extremely volatile and has remained so for the past 6 weeks.

BTC-2.55%

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ChenJiaguanA

03-19 14:36

BTC -3.19 - 22:30
Under the influence of the overall market environment, BTC is extremely weak
You can see that today there hasn't been any rebound strength at all
Including the current support at 69
It's likely to break through directly
The next support level below would need to be watched at 66.5
And currently for short-term rebounds, resistance can only be looked at around 71

BTC-2.55%

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ChenJiaguanA

03-19 12:40

ETH hasn't broken the previous pullback support level from this wave of momentum.
This position is also close to Machi brother's liquidation line around 2100.
Currently around 2151, warriors have already rushed in with 21.45 million.

ETH-2.51%

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ChenJiaguanA

03-19 09:02

BTC below 69-68k is the level with the most accumulated chips from this uptrend
The liquidation of 390 million+ short positions in 24 hours has clearly become much more moderate
The bulls' 8-day offensive accumulation was completely washed away in a single day yesterday
It feels like the market hasn't been shaken out yet
Short positions at high levels can continue to hold and observe
Tonight when US stocks open, there will be a rise followed by another drop

BTC-2.55%

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ChenJiaguanA

03-19 06:36

As BTC filled the CEM gap over the weekend, the FOMC also did not trigger an effective upward rebound. The 4-hour ascending channel has been broken. In the early session, the price tested lows of 70.4K, followed by a test of the strong support at 70K. In an ideal scenario, a small rebound from the 70K strong support would occur, with a move up to around 72K to short. ETH rebounded to around 2230 to short. (Chen Jiaguan)

BTC-2.55%

ETH-2.51%

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