**RRPGAw**

BTC rebounded and maintained oscillations around $71,000, with the downside crisis temporarily lifted. IV across all major tenors showed significant declines, with BTC medium-term IV dropping over 5% from peak levels and over 3% compared to two days ago. ETH medium-term IV fell over 8% from peak levels and over 5% compared to two days ago.
Skew rebounded comprehensively, with many bearish options positions established during the crisis being closed out, restoring balance between bearish and bullish forces. This Friday marks the quarterly expiration with over 40% of options expiring. The most c

Trump: I will have a phone call with Khamenei a little later.

There are no significant macroeconomic data this week, with the only major macroeconomic event currently being that it's been nearly a month since the U.S.-Israel strike on Iran, and it remains unclear how the tensions will develop.
U.S. stocks have performed poorly over the past week, with major stocks and indices showing significant declines, and crypto has also been dragged down, effectively breaking through the 70,000 USD level. Implied volatility across all major option maturities is rising, Skew is declining broadly, and the market is concerned about escalation of the crisis.
Put options

【March 20 Options Expiration Data】
23,000 BTC options expiring, Put Call Ratio at 0.88, max pain point at $70,000, notional value of $1.6 billion.
176,000 ETH options expiring, Put Call Ratio at 1.04, max pain point at $2,150, notional value of $370 million.
The crypto market's latest rally has come to an end, with Bitcoin briefly breaking below the $70,000 round level. In the past week, $75,000 has been frequently mentioned as a key resistance level, with 5% of month-end options accumulated at this price. The final breakout attempt failed and prices retreated to around $70,000.
Next Friday is

The U.S. stock market continues to have significant impact on cryptocurrency. After 18:00 last night, major U.S. stocks showed notable declines, causing Bitcoin to be directly pulled down from 74000 to 71000. This downtrend also extended to the altcoin market.
However, the rebound from this round of decline lasted an extremely short time, and by this morning, prices have already fallen to lower levels than yesterday afternoon.
Despite Powell's hawkish remarks warning of inflation risks from regional conflicts, under which the Federal Reserve may not cut rates this year, the market has already

Quarterly options expiring at month-end now account for over 40% of open positions, with $75,000 call option contracts representing over 5% of single contracts—an unprecedented level of concentration, with everyone betting on $75,000.
The gamma wall and gamma concentration signify a consensus gathering of market sentiment. When everyone is in the same vehicle, either they collectively push the market in the desired direction, or they all crash together.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $73,500, very close to $75,000, sitting right at the upper band of about two months of consolidation. All the

After the weekly settlement, BTC surged significantly and has now approached $74,000, nearing the upper bound of the oscillation range since February.
The options market has shown a muted reaction. BTC doomsday options' implied volatility remains below 50%, while ETH doomsday options' implied volatility remains below 70%, both lower than the implied volatility of major tenors.
In terms of trading volume, large bullish options trades account for less than 30% of total volume, concentrated in shallow out-of-the-money near month-end expiry. This is relatively low for a 5% price movement. The opti

【March 13 Options Expiration Data】
26,000 BTC options expiring, Put Call Ratio of 0.9, max pain at $69,000, notional value of $1.8 billion.
182,000 ETH options expiring, Put Call Ratio of 1.21, max pain at $2,000, notional value of $380 million.
The crypto market continued its rebound this week, with Bitcoin reclaiming the $70,000 round number, though rebound momentum is declining. From options market data, short-term and medium-term option IVs decreased this week while long-term option IVs rose, but the magnitude was minimal. BTC's main-term IV is at 50%, ETH's main-term IV is at 70%, while R

The events of 312 seem like they happened last century already. Back then, implied volatility reached as high as 500%, and what limited that implied volatility wasn't market conditions, but rather exchange rules.
Six years have passed, and the options market has become very mature, no longer the wild west era of those days. Implied volatility has also been maintained below 60% for an extended period, no longer the market that frequently exceeded 100% back then.
However, the options market has grown from daily trading volumes of just hundreds of millions of dollars back then to tens of billions

Bitcoin has retaken the $71,500 level, and the current crisis has been alleviated. Implied volatility for all major tenors is rapidly declining, now back to levels seen a week ago.
The recently positive VRP has quickly turned negative. Within one day, the monthly VRP shifted from +2% to -9%, and the expanding negative premium trend indicates that market expectations for future volatility are lower than current levels.
The crisis seems to be over, but the extreme weakness in the crypto market during the first quarter of this year has not yet reversed, and market confidence remains very weak

This Wednesday, there will be the US February CPI data, on Thursday the unemployment figures, and on Friday the January PCE Price Index, three important macroeconomic data points.
However, in terms of actual impact, the military actions by the US and Israel against Iran triggering the Strait of Hormuz are the macro events truly affecting the market.
Since last week, the implied volatility of major maturities has shown a significant increase. Currently, BTC's short-term IV has reached over 65%, and ETH's short-term IV has risen to over 80%, both reaching recent highs.
Market expectations

Bulk bearish positions account for 30% today, with a total notional value of $336 million. The main transactions are weekend-expiring out-of-the-money put options and end-of-month puts below $60,000. Market sentiment is relatively fragile, and once a correction begins, the bearish momentum will significantly increase.

【March 6 Options Expiration Data】
3.2 million BTC options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 1.69, the maximum pain point at $69,000, and a notional value of $2.3 billion.
1.84 million ETH options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.85, the maximum pain point at $1,950, and a notional value of $380 million.
The crypto market experienced a rebound this week, with Bitcoin stabilizing above the $70,000 mark and currently aiming to break through $75,000. However, based on options market data, selling call options has become the mainstream trading activity in the past two days. Altho

Although the cryptocurrency price hit a new high today, the implied volatility (IV) of major-term options and expiration options did not increase; instead, it decreased compared to when it broke through 70,000.
In the past week, VRP has dropped significantly, declining nearly 20% across all maturities. This divergence generally indicates that institutions believe the rebound has come to an end and momentum is waning.

The rebound is facing resistance, and the selling pressure with a bullish outlook is strong. Currently, the implied volatility of end-date options has dropped from over 65% to around 55%, a 10% decrease in one day.
The current rebound is relatively weak, with options positions this week only accounting for 6.6% of the total holdings. Market trading activity is very low, and the crypto market still needs to consolidate.

📢 Weekly Trading Data Update 📈
From February 23 to March 1, the nominal trading volume achieved through block trades was $153,229,940 (approximately $153.23 million).
Top 5 block trades by transaction volume last week. Thank you all for your support.

【February 27 Options Expiration Data】
116,000 BTC options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.76. The maximum pain point is $75,000, with a notional value of $7.9 billion.
206,000 ETH options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.77. The maximum pain point is $2,200, with a notional value of $980 million.
The crypto market remains sluggish. In early February, Bitcoin briefly fell below the $60,000 mark, and throughout February, the market has been weakly oscillating above $60,000.
Tomorrow, options accounting for 20% of total holdings, totaling nearly $9 billion, will expire. B

【February 13 Options Expiration Data】
38,000 BTC options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.71. The maximum pain point is $74,000, with a notional value of $2.5 billion.
215,000 ETH options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.82. The maximum pain point is $2,100, with a notional value of $410 million.
The crypto market continues to bleed and decline, with the speed of the maximum pain point decreasing rapidly. Today, options accounting for 9% of total open interest are expiring, totaling nearly $2.9 billion.
This week, the implied volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum has decre

The bulk has already accounted for 75% of the current trading volume, especially with bullish options reaching a recent peak. 1.7 billion USD accounts for nearly half of today's trading, mainly consisting of deep out-of-the-money options with medium to long-term maturities.
We can consider that some long-term players have already begun positioning for this year's rebound. Based on past experience, after a period of consolidation and bottoming out, the market will initiate a rebound.
Currently, the market is still in the process of bottoming out. It is recommended to wait for a more certain