NFTBigBanana

April 13 Cryptocurrency Market
The decline was smaller than expected, and #BTC funding rates have turned positive. Neither Brent crude oil nor the US dollar reached 100, and gold is still falling. Overall, has already been priced in advance.
Next, let's look at the news: The US blockade of the strait is clearly an economic sanction against Iran. However, Iran is used to sanctions as a routine, and Israel, which is provoking the situation, is an X factor.

Is the long short still not giving up? Here's another data point 📊
#BTC The long-short ratio is now at a new low of 0.74, the previous low was on March 17th at 0.85.
Look at the chart for the subsequent trend.

April 12 Cryptocurrency Market
Vans Official Announcement: US-Iran negotiations have broken down. Iran's spokesperson: We are not in a hurry to negotiate again.
Forget about resolving the nuclear issue through negotiations; the best outcome right now is a ceasefire.
And there are many worse outcomes: crude oil surging, inflation, no rate cuts in sight, Trump’s midterm elections, Japan raising interest rates, then war.
No matter how you look at it, these are not positive developments...

Talking About the Risks of Rate Hikes
Japan faces government bond yields at a 30-year high (2-year) plus the yen exchange rate at a high of 160. As the second-largest bond market after the US and China, Japan’s bond market size is as large as $13.5 trillion, and its debt-to-GDP ratio ranks first among developed countries. Japanese government bonds were sold off in advance, but the exchange rate didn’t rise—this shows that the yen carry-trade funds didn’t come back at all; this portion of capital is being far too optimistic about risk.
But there’s still a sword not put down—the Federal Rese

This morning's rally indeed had no positive news or data support.
Looking at the timeline, it coincides with the opening of U.S. stock futures (6:00). Initially, there was a dip followed by a rapid surge, and now the market is back in the green. Cryptocurrencies also followed with a surge of short positions.
Trump's "ultimatum" has been postponed multiple times, with the latest deadline set for 8 a.m. Wednesday. Meanwhile, 15 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours. Asset markets are showing a split trend: crude oil, the US dollar, and cryptocurrencies are rising, while

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.#edge The short liquidity is so good right now, don't go short
The shitty project team has been a dog once, and it's very easy to do it again. Push it up a bit, and harvest the anger of the retail investors once more...

Cryptocurrency Market on March 30
It's at hellish difficulty level; avoid placing orders during the market rally. Trump is sending more troops while claiming peace talks are progressing smoothly. Crude oil surged to 108.7 and started to decline from 8 a.m., after the dollar hit 100.3, it began to fall at 7 a.m., with gold and crypto rebounding in tandem.
Currently, cryptocurrencies are no longer following the dollar but are starting to follow gold. Major asset classes are all treating crude oil as the opposing side. However, the internal logic is too chaotic to understand, so I’m staying o

March 26 Crypto Market
US-Iran negotiations are underway. News shows Iranian nuclear facilities were bombed, and the US is deploying additional ground troops—everything looks like the war is escalating. But the reality reflected is that Iran refused to cooperate, and Trump got impatient. The war might actually be coming to an end.
On the charts, the volatility is very narrow, and there's no value in box trading. Here I'm choosing to open some spot longs to bet on a news-driven rally. I'll set a shallow stop-loss below—even if I lose, the losses won't be significant.

March 25 Crypto Market
Trump's TACO drama has been excessive, and by the time he actually released a ceasefire message, the market showed no reaction anymore. Last night, the three major US stock indices opened lower and closed lower. The US dollar rallied and then fell back. Only gold remained truly resilient. Still maintaining my previous view that capital's investment logic right now is to buy oversold assets—whichever one drops the most, buy it back and hold it for a bit.
Crypto is still range-bound trading. Don't be greedy; make enough for living expenses and then exit.

March 24 Crypto Market
Bullish bias, but definitely set stop losses. After US market close, crypto declined to the level from 2 days ago when Trump threatened to bomb Iran's power infrastructure, essentially wiping out yesterday's excessive optimism premium.
Sentiment is solid, and the news outlook ahead is mostly positive. Trump, due to inflation and the election cycle, will definitely want to end the war as soon as possible. Has he been negotiating with Iran? Likely yes, it's just a matter of who he's been talking to. More importantly, regardless of who represents Iran, they will choose to s

Trump: Strike on Iran delayed 5 days. The Commander's one sentence sends crypto gold soaring, crude oil crashes like this - isn't it a bit excessive?

March 23rd Crypto Market
Less than 24 hours until Trump's ultimatum. If there's an attack on Iran's power facilities, it will inevitably trigger massive retaliation + complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices are the X factor. Over the weekend, crypto took the hit alone. We'll see how US stocks perform after a weak open tonight. At this point, it's better to shift some focus to the crude oil market—crypto has already priced everything in, not much meat left on the bone.

March 22 Crypto Market
The morning sharp decline was driven by Trump's threats toward Iran, but the rebound momentum currently looks decent—we can attempt to trade the bounce. Currently, gold, US stocks, and the US dollar index are all pulling back from their highs, and crypto has benefited from the liquidity flow. Prices remain above the levels from February 28 during the Iran conflict. The morning's decline occurred because major asset markets were closed over the weekend, so the crypto market alone bore the brunt of Trump's Iran threats. I personally think the fear was somewhat amplified. I

March 19 Crypto Market
Yesterday wiped out all the gains since the 15th—this was a stampede exit, not a pullback. From a news perspective, it's the PPI beat, but fundamentally, there's still no conviction in a bull market return. Everyone tacitly agreed to sell together.
Beyond the PPI surprise, there's also: Powell's hawkish rhetoric, crude oil and gold surging, ETF ending a 7-day winning streak, and the S&P 500 falling back to November last year levels. The risk-off sentiment is extremely strong. The time has come to test traders' ability to hold empty positions.