Is it too late to become a Bitcoin millionaire? | A look at future investment strategies

What Is an Okuribito?

“Okuribito” is a uniquely Japanese term that refers to individuals whose net assets exceed 100 million yen through investments or speculation in stocks, FX, or crypto assets. The phrase gained widespread recognition during the 2017 crypto boom, when Bitcoin and other crypto asset prices soared, enabling many investors to generate massive profits in a short period from relatively modest investments.

This phenomenon was driven by the extraordinary volatility unique to the crypto asset market, in contrast to conventional stock and FX trading. For example, it was not uncommon for someone who invested 100,000 yen in Bitcoin at the beginning of 2017 to see their assets grow to several million yen by year’s end. High-profile success stories like these were widely reported, making “Okuribito” a familiar concept and motivating many individual investors to enter the crypto market.

Can "Ordinary People" Still Aim to Become an Okuribito?

In short, it’s not too late. However, this doesn’t mean you’ll become a millionaire just by buying a small amount of BTC. The crypto asset market has entered a more mature phase, and explosive price surges like those in the past are less likely. Still, with a sound strategy and a long-term perspective, there are ample opportunities to significantly increase your assets.

Key considerations include:

• “How much should you invest, for how long, and in what way should you hold?”
• “If you can only invest tens of thousands to several hundred thousand yen, what is the potential for growth?”
• “How should you respond to market fluctuations and manage risk?”

For example, investing 30,000 yen in Bitcoin each month totals 360,000 yen in a year and 3.6 million yen over ten years. If Bitcoin’s historical average annual return repeats, your investment could grow four to tenfold in a decade. This approach, called "Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA)," involves making regular purchases over time instead of investing a lump sum all at once.

The advantage of this method is that you buy less when prices are high and more when prices are low, resulting in a lower average purchase price. It also eases psychological pressure since you’re not committing a large sum at once. In the highly volatile crypto asset market, this strategy is considered especially practical and effective for beginners.

"Okuribito" Scenarios by Investment Amount

Your chances of becoming an Okuribito vary greatly depending on your investment amount. The following table shows how asset values change with different investment levels and Bitcoin price multiples:

A Realistic Path for Retail Investors

This table highlights several practical realities:

• Investing less than 100,000 yen is best viewed as a “ticket to the future”—the main value is gaining experience in the crypto asset market. While you won’t become an Okuribito, you can learn market dynamics and build foundational investment experience.

• Investing around 1,000,000 yen is far from generating nine figures, but you can target severalfold asset growth over a ten-year span. For example, if Bitcoin rises 10x, you reach 10,000,000 yen; at 15x, 15,000,000 yen—enough for retirement savings or a down payment on a house.

• Investing 10,000,000 yen is when Okuribito status becomes realistically attainable. If Bitcoin rises 10x, you’ll reach 100,000,000 yen and achieve your goal. However, this level of investment carries significant risk, so prudent asset management is essential.

• Even with a 30,000 yen monthly DCA, you can build over 50,000,000 yen in assets long term. This is a realistic amount for many working professionals and can be sustained comfortably. Over ten years, a total investment of 3,600,000 yen could grow to 36,000,000 yen at 10x, or 54,000,000 yen at 15x Bitcoin growth.

Major Bitcoin Price Predictions: Recent and Future

Many leading financial institutions and investors have issued bullish forecasts for the next few years, citing factors such as institutional adoption, ETF proliferation, and inflation concerns:

• Standard Chartered Bank: $200,000 (future target price)
• Bitwise: $200,000 (near-term forecast)
• ARK Invest: $710,000 (by 2030)
• Fundstrat: $250,000 (bullish scenario)
• Robert Kiyosaki: $250,000 (future projection)
• Arthur Hayes: $1,000,000 (by 2028)

Common Themes in These Predictions

Several key factors underpin these forecasts:

• Institutional participation and ETF adoption are key price drivers: In recent years, major financial institutions and corporations have increasingly added Bitcoin to their asset portfolios. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs now allows institutions that previously found it difficult to invest in crypto assets to easily access the market.

• Inflation and financial instability have accelerated demand for Bitcoin as “digital gold”: Global inflation and policy uncertainty have raised concerns about fiat currency devaluation. As a result, Bitcoin, like gold, is attracting attention as a store of value given its finite supply.

• Tight supply and accumulation by whales (large holders) are reducing circulating volume: Bitcoin’s total supply is capped at 21 million, and more than 90% has already been mined. As more holders take a long-term view, market supply shrinks, creating persistent supply-demand pressure.

Long-Term Holding Strategy: Historical Returns

Bitcoin’s track record clearly demonstrates the benefits of long-term holding:

• The average annual return over the past five years is roughly 155%. By comparison, gold returned about 7% per year in the same period, emphasizing Bitcoin’s outperformance. However, these high returns come with significant volatility, so the ability to endure short-term swings is essential.

• Even over a ten-year span, Bitcoin’s average annual return is 49%, far outpacing major stock indices like the S&P 500. This highlights Bitcoin’s appeal as a long-term investment.

• All holding periods of at least four years have produced positive returns. Bitcoin’s price cycles tend to follow a roughly four-year rhythm (related to halving events), meaning anyone holding for four years or more has always seen a profit.

For example, those who bought Bitcoin at its late-2017 peak (about 2 million yen) saw significant unrealized losses during the 2018 crash. Yet by the end of 2021—four years later—the price had doubled to over 4 million yen, resulting in a gain. This underscores the importance of holding with a long-term perspective rather than reacting to short-term volatility.

High-Risk Shortcuts: The Dangers of Leverage and Futures Trading

Many investors try to multiply their assets quickly through leveraged trading, but this approach is extremely risky. If the market moves against you, you could lose everything in an instant. Leverage trading lets you transact at several to dozens of times your capital, amplifying both gains and losses.

The CEO of on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant cautions:

Never use leverage above 2x. I’ve never seen any investor survive and succeed using large amounts of leverage.

This warning reflects countless investor failures. With 10x leverage, a mere 10% drop erases your principal (triggering a forced liquidation). Given Bitcoin’s volatility, price swings of more than 10% in a single day are not uncommon.

Leverage trading also carries the risk of “forced liquidation.” If the price crosses a certain point, positions are automatically closed, locking in losses regardless of your intentions. During sharp market moves or “flash crashes,” widespread liquidations can trigger further losses in a cascading effect.

Therefore, beginners and those with limited funds should avoid leverage trading and focus on long-term holding through spot trading without leverage.

Why Are Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Increasing?

Several important factors account for the recent rise in long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH):

• The first spot Bitcoin ETF was approved in the United States: This allows investors to buy Bitcoin easily via brokerage accounts without the need for crypto exchange accounts or complex procedures, greatly improving convenience for both institutions and individuals.

• Institutional capital inflows are accelerating: Major hedge funds, pension funds, and insurance companies are adding Bitcoin to their portfolios. These institutions typically invest with a long-term horizon, contributing to market stability.

• Japan’s regulatory reforms have made the market safer for individual investors: The Financial Services Agency has introduced a registration system for crypto exchanges, strengthening investor protection. Tax reforms are also underway, making it even safer for individuals to participate.

On-chain data shows LTHs’ total holdings once reached 14.37 million BTC, with accumulation outpacing short-term selling. This indicates that most market participants are holding Bitcoin with expectations of long-term value appreciation, not just short-term profits.

A Realistic Roadmap to Okuribito Status with Bitcoin

Requirements for Reaching 100 Million Yen in the Future

At one point, 1 BTC was about 14 million yen. To reach 100 million yen, the price would need to climb more than sevenfold. If ARK Invest’s 2030 forecast of $700,000 (about 100 million yen) comes true, holding 1 BTC would make you an Okuribito. Still, this is a very optimistic scenario and not guaranteed.

A more realistic scenario assumes Bitcoin grows three to five times in the coming years. If you hold 0.2–0.3 BTC (roughly a 3–5 million yen investment), you could approach Okuribito status.

Market Maturity and Investment Value

Explosive price surges like 10x in a year are unlikely. As the market matures, Bitcoin has become more stable and reliable as an asset class—transitioning from a speculative instrument to a mainstream investment.

With market maturity, volatility (price swings) is gradually decreasing. While this reduces short-term windfalls, it increases the prospects for stable long-term returns. Institutional participation has also improved liquidity, making prices less sensitive to large trades.

Realistic Strategies for Retail Investors

For most retail investors, these strategies are practical:

• Investing around 1,000,000 yen offers the potential for severalfold to 10x growth over the long term: This amount is manageable for many working professionals. Over ten years, building 10–100 million yen in assets is feasible.

• Investing 10,000,000 yen puts Okuribito status within reach: However, this level of investment carries significant risk. It’s best to allocate only part of your portfolio to Bitcoin, not your entire assets.

• The most realistic approach is to invest 30,000 yen monthly (DCA) for ten years: This method reduces psychological burden and can grow your assets into the tens of millions of yen. Regular investing at both high and low prices helps lower your average cost.

Disciplined Long-Term Holding with Risk Management Is Essential

Historically, holding Bitcoin for over four years has always resulted in positive returns. Avoid high-risk, short-term trades (such as leveraged or day trading), and follow these risk management principles:

• Limit investments to surplus funds: Never use money needed for living expenses or emergencies—invest only what you can afford to lose.
• Diversify your portfolio: Spread risk across other assets like stocks, bonds, and real estate—not just Bitcoin.
• Review your portfolio regularly: Adjust your allocation as market conditions or your personal situation changes.
• Avoid emotional decisions: Don’t buy in a frenzy or sell in a panic. Stick to your predetermined strategy.

Summary

Bitcoin has spent extended periods in high price ranges in recent years, but it’s still possible to pursue Okuribito status. The key is to adopt a long-term plan for steady asset growth rather than expecting explosive profits over short periods as seen in the past.

Expert forecasts, market maturity, and institutional tailwinds like ETF approvals all point to continued opportunities for asset growth. Institutional participation and improved regulation also enhance market stability and transparency, which strongly benefit long-term investors.

The critical question isn’t “how much can you make,” but “how much are you comfortable investing for the long run?” Rather than risking sums that cause daily anxiety, success comes from steady, long-term investing within your means.

Patience, discipline, and making time and diversification your allies set the most realistic starting line for becoming an Okuribito. Even saving 30,000 yen monthly for ten years can yield tens of millions of yen—enough for retirement or a home purchase for most people.

Finally, remember that all investing is your responsibility. Always manage risk and make decisions based on your own judgment. Don’t be swayed by other people’s success stories; find a strategy that suits you and stick with it—this is the path to long-term success.

FAQ

Is it still possible to become an Okuribito with Bitcoin starting now?

Yes, it’s still possible. Bitcoin has significant further growth potential, and with an investment of around 5 million yen, reaching Okuribito status is realistic. Early entry is advantageous.

What long-term strategy leads to success in Bitcoin investing?

Long-term holding is essential. Make regular investments, ignore short-term volatility, and accumulate assets steadily over time. Don’t forget to diversify to manage risk.

What are the main risks in Bitcoin investing, and how can you address them?

Key risks include hacking, regulatory changes, user errors, and malware. To mitigate them, use two-factor authentication, understand relevant regulations, trade in secure environments, and store assets in cold wallets.

How do returns for early investors compare to those for current investors?

Early investors have generally seen far higher returns. However, current investors can still achieve substantial gains through long-term holding. Even starting in 2026, crypto assets offer enough growth potential to target large returns over several years or decades.

Should you consider crypto assets beyond Bitcoin?

Yes, it’s worth considering. Ethereum and other altcoins have unique technologies and use cases, offering growth potential distinct from Bitcoin. Diversification can enhance overall returns.

What knowledge should you acquire before investing in Bitcoin?

It’s important to understand blockchain technology, market volatility, money management, and tax implications. Also, clarify your long-term strategy and risk tolerance before investing.