Polymarket: The probability of cutting down the whales in December is 87% - crypto stocks rise to the sky

Crypto-related stocks surged on Friday as the predicted rate cut in December on Polymarket soared to 87%, the highest level this month.

Three Bitcoin mining companies listed in the U.S. are leading the rally, including Cleanspark, Riot Platforms, and Cipher Mining, with double-digit gains in the session and over the past 5 days.

The potential for the US to cut interest rates in December | Source: PolymarketData from Yahoo Finance shows that Circle – the issuer of USDC – increased by nearly 10% in the morning session, while Michael Saylor's Strategy and Coinbase recorded a more modest increase. Bitcoin also rose about 7% over the week, after dropping to nearly 82,000 USD on November 21 according to CoinGecko data.

The fluctuations in the prediction market this month are primarily influenced by the statements of officials from the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). On October 29, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that a rate cut in December “is not a certainty,” causing investors to worry that the Fed may delay rate cuts and maintain a tightening policy. The predicted rate on Polymarket has fallen from 89% the previous day to 22% by November 20.

Market sentiment changed on November 17 after Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated that the central bank should consider cutting rates next month, citing that “the labor market is still weak and near saturation levels,” while inflation is currently “relatively close” to the Fed's 2% target.

The prediction market is expanding strongly

The prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, where users can bet on the outcomes of real-world events, are expanding their scope and influence this year.

On November 13, Polymarket signed a multi-year agreement with TKO Group Holdings to become the official partner for Ultimate Fighting Championships and Zuffa Boxing, shortly after partnering with North American fantasy sports operator PrizePicks.

In the same month, Kalshi raised $1 billion from Sequoia Capital and CapitalG, bringing its valuation to $11 billion, according to TechCrunch citing sources close to the matter. This funding round follows the $300 million raised in October.

On November 19, rumors emerged that Coinbase is developing its own prediction market platform, after technology researcher Jane Manchun Wong posted a screenshot of an unreleased website. The image shows that the product will be offered through Coinbase Financial Markets and supported by Kalshi.

On Wednesday, Robinhood announced that the prediction market has become one of the fastest-growing revenue sources, with over 1 million users trading 9 billion contracts since its launch in March through a partnership with Kalshi.

Thach Sanh