Zcash needs to rise nearly 60% to truly recover? Risks and key resistance associated with Bitcoin are the biggest variables

Zcash (ZEC) is trying to recover lost ground after the November plunge. After experiencing a significant decline of over 55%, ZEC has recently rebounded by approximately 40%, and market sentiment has recovered, but the full recovery still faces multiple uncertainties.

In terms of technical indicators, the RSI has broken above the 50 neutral range for the first time in two weeks, indicating increased buying power and a short-term bullish bias is forming. In general, the RSI’s return to positive range is often seen as an early signal of a trend reversal, but this does not mean that ZEC has established itself in an upward trend. The macro market remains highly sensitive to risk assets, and the slightest movement could weaken ZEC’s new vitality, so sustained buying is key to short-term gains.

The biggest variable at the moment comes from the negative correlation with Bitcoin. Zcash has a correlation coefficient of -0.47 with Bitcoin, which means that the two are moving in opposite directions. This negative correlation could limit ZEC’s upside against the backdrop of Bitcoin starting to show signs of recovery. If Bitcoin continues to extend its gains, ZEC could be under pressure due to a contrarian relationship. Conversely, if Bitcoin pulls back, ZEC may be able to continue its rebound independently, which further complicates market expectations for ZEC’s movement.

! Zcash Price Prediction

(Source: TradingView)

From the price structure, ZEC was trading at $439 at press time, approaching the key resistance zone of $442. If it can break through and hold here, the short-term target is expected to point towards $520. However, even if it rises to this range, it will not be enough to make up for the previous deep decline. For a true market recovery, ZEC still needs to rise by about 59% to regain the $700 level.

Failure to break through resistance and be dragged down by Bitcoin’s negative correlation could lead ZEC back to $403 or even towards the $340 area, erasing recent gains and breaking the short-term bullish structure.

Overall, Zcash is in a critical range where rally and risk coexist. Technical improvements, ecological expectations, and trading sentiment all provide support, but Bitcoin’s trend remains an important factor in dominating its short-term fortunes. To achieve deep repair for ZEC, it still needs to coordinate with market liquidity, risk appetite and the overall crypto market.