U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced today (13th) the December 2025 CPI data, with the overall inflation rate holding steady at 2.7%, fully in line with market expectations, while core inflation unexpectedly slowed to 2.6%, slightly below expectations.
(Background: U.S. December non-farm employment “below expectations,” market confident that the Fed will not cut rates this month! Goldman Sachs: expects two rate cuts this year)
(Additional context: Federal Reserve latest meeting minutes: disagreements remain, but “most” officials advocate continuing rate cuts)

Table of Contents

• December CPI Data Detailed Performance
• Slight Decline in Fed Rate Cut Expectations
• Cryptocurrency Market Short-term Rally
• Gold and Silver Both Hit Record Highs

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) officially released the December 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on January 13, 2026. The report shows that the overall inflation rate remains stable, fully aligning with market expectations, while core inflation is slightly below expectations, providing a small positive signal to the market.

December CPI Data Detailed Performance

Regarding the headline CPI, seasonally adjusted monthly increase was 0.3%, consistent with market expectations; unadjusted annual increase was 2.7%, unchanged from November, also meeting expectations. This indicates that inflationary pressures are generally stable, with no signs of significant acceleration.

Core CPI (excluding food and energy) performed more mildly, with a seasonally adjusted monthly increase of only 0.2%, below the market expectation of 0.3%; the annual increase was 2.6%, below the expected 2.7%, and unchanged from the previous month, the lowest since March 2021. The slowdown in core inflation mainly reflects that pressures from services and sticky prices (such as housing) have not worsened further, energy prices have significantly eased, but food and housing remain the main drivers. It should be noted that, due to the federal government shutdown in 2025, some early data contain noise; although this December report has normalized, some uncertainty remains regarding data revisions.

Slight Decline in Fed Rate Cut Expectations

Following the CPI data release, according to the latest CME FedWatch Tool data, the market is almost certain that the Fed will hold steady this month, maintaining interest rates in the 3.50%-3.75% range; the probability of rate cuts resuming in March and April has slightly decreased, at 26.1% and 33.8%, respectively.

Cryptocurrency Market Short-term Rally

Driven by CPI data, risk asset sentiment has improved, leading to a short-term rebound in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin briefly broke through $92,500, but selling pressure soon emerged, and at the time of writing, it has fallen back to around $92,100, with a nearly 0.5% increase over the past 24 hours; Ethereum followed a similar trend, reaching a high of $3,160, and currently trading at $3,140.

Bitcoin Price. Image source: OKX

Gold and Silver Both Hit Record Highs

The precious metals market is even more bullish, with spot gold briefly surpassing $4,620 per ounce, setting a new record high; spot silver surged more than 3.00% intraday, breaking through $87 per ounce.

Gold Price. Image source: TradingView