Bitfinex Alpha #187》Cryptocurrency market "cautiously optimistic" heats up, but the upward headwinds are still present

The crypto market has rapidly de-leveraged within a few days, effectively clearing out old positions, making the derivatives market structure cleaner, and reflecting a cautiously optimistic sentiment.
(Background recap: Boom! Bitcoin breaks through $96,000, Ethereum surpasses $3,300, with $750 million in liquidations across the network “shorts liquidated for $660 million”)
(Additional context: Backtesting over five years: Does leveraged dollar-cost averaging in Bitcoin really make more money?)

Since rebounding from a low of about $80,800 in late November, Bitcoin has been continuously testing the key resistance zone of $93,500–$95,000.

Although the mid-term outlook for 2026 remains constructive amid expectations of improved global liquidity, short-term price performance is still constrained by multiple factors, including geopolitical uncertainties, divergent ETF capital flows, and the market’s inability to firmly establish above the resistance zone, resulting in an incomplete upward market structure.

The rapid de-leveraging of open interest in year-end options has effectively cleared old positions, making the derivatives market structure cleaner and reflecting a cautiously optimistic sentiment: on one hand, capital is positioning for upward movement over longer timeframes; on the other hand, short-term hedging remains in place. Meanwhile, implied volatility remains in a compressed range but shows signs of gradually rising.

At the same time, Bitcoin’s price is gradually entering a supply-dense zone defined by recent high buy orders, with a cost basis roughly between $92,100 and $117,400. As prices return to this area, market expectations for “break-even selling pressure” will gradually heat up: holders who previously experienced retracements may prefer to exit without incurring losses. This will create significant overhead resistance, implying that subsequent upward movement will require time and rely on sustained and stable spot demand to absorb and distribute the supply. Until this supply is sufficiently digested, the market is more likely to remain in range-bound oscillation, with risk appetite gradually recovering rather than quickly shifting into a new trend-driven rally.

Recent US macro data shows economic activity slowing down, but no signs of widespread weakness have emerged. Growth momentum is increasingly driven by productivity improvements and trade structure rather than expansion in the labor force.

The labor market has clearly entered a phase of “slower hiring but no layoffs”: employment growth has significantly cooled, yet the unemployment rate remains low. Companies are maintaining output and profits through productivity gains with fewer working hours, further reinforcing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in the short term but remain cautious about rate cuts within the year.

On the other hand, the US trade deficit has significantly narrowed, mainly due to a decline in imports rather than a broad strengthening of domestic demand, even as exports hit new highs. In the short term, trade balance improvements may support overall growth data, but behind this lies weakening consumer momentum, pressures on transportation and logistics employment, and operational risks faced by small and medium-sized enterprises, indicating that underlying economic momentum is becoming more uneven.

Among major economies, digital assets are accelerating integration with existing financial systems, marking a shift from the fragmented crypto ecosystem of the past to a more institutional-led, regulated infrastructure phase. In Japan, policymakers see 2026 as a critical turning point, planning to fully incorporate cryptocurrency trading into a regulated exchange system and apply securities-like regulations to major tokens, while introducing a unified capital gains tax to promote broad participation from retail and institutional investors. Similar trends are emerging in the US. A crypto project closely linked to political circles has applied for a nationwide trust bank license, attempting to internalize stablecoin issuance and custody under federal regulation. This indicates that even as regulatory scrutiny intensifies, stablecoins are increasingly intersecting with core banking functions. Overall, these developments point to a clear direction: the world is moving toward a more defined regulatory framework, exchange-centric market access, and institutionalized operational structures, laying the foundation for the next phase of digital asset adoption and proliferation.