One year since Trump returned to the White House: American deterrence is rewriting the global risk order

President Trump enters his second year of his second term. This increasingly wild American president is facing deepening domestic divisions and high inflation, while his “only bound by moral constraints” governing style has also raised concerns about his future actions. This article is sourced from an article by Jintian Data, compiled, translated, and written by Foresight News.
(Background recap: Trump announced: 10% tariffs on Denmark and eight other European countries in February, vowing to “take Greenland” and EU countries forming a coalition to counterattack)
(Additional background: Why is Trump so determined to take Greenland? What is hidden on this 80% ice-covered island?)

On Tuesday, President Trump will mark the one-year anniversary of his return to the White House. Previously, he launched a series of astonishing policy “lightning strikes,” expanding presidential powers and reshaping the relationship between the United States and the world.

As he enters the second year of his presidency, he seems increasingly unrestrained, and his policies have deepened the divisions within the United States.

In recent weeks, Trump has ordered more aggressive federal crackdowns on illegal immigrants in Minnesota; led a bold military raid to forcibly detain Venezuelan President Maduro; revived his controversial plan to acquire Greenland; threatened to bomb Iran; and dismissed concerns over the criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Powell.

Last week, in an interview in the Oval Office, when asked about the potential economic consequences of the investigation into Powell, he said, “I don’t care.”

On January 7, he told The New York Times in an interview that, as Commander-in-Chief, the only restraint on his overseas military strikes is “my own moral standards.”

Overall, these remarks highlight Trump’s view of the presidency: that the main constraint is his own judgment, not institutional limits.

White House spokesperson Anna Kelly stated that Trump’s first instinct is diplomatic, and all his decisions are well thought out. But she added that he reserves all options, including sending U.S. troops into Venezuela to control Maduro, and that last year’s bombing of three Iranian nuclear facilities was because “neither side was serious about negotiations.”

When Trump returns to the White House on January 20, 2025, as a victor beginning his second term, he vows to reshape the economy, federal bureaucracy, immigration policy, and much of American culture. He has already fulfilled most of his agenda, becoming one of the most powerful presidents in modern American history.

Like all U.S. presidents who cannot seek re-election, Trump faces almost inevitable decline in power in his second year in office. He remains highly unpopular: more and more Americans are dissatisfied with his handling of the economy and are concerned about his priorities. But public opinion is deeply polarized, and he still enjoys substantial support among his core supporters.

A recent poll conducted by Reuters/Ipsos last week shows Trump’s approval rating at 41%, with 58% of American adults dissatisfied with his performance. This figure is generally low for a U.S. president but not the lowest during Trump’s second term.

“Trump’s complete disregard for the rule of law or basic checks and balances makes Americans less safe in every aspect,” said Democratic strategist Alex Floyd, adding that voters might punish the Republican Party for what he describes as “lawlessness.”

In an interview, Trump admitted that the Republican Party faces the risk of losing control of Congress in the November elections, and said that historical patterns are unfavorable for the president’s party in midterm elections. Earlier, he told a group of Republican lawmakers to fight to retain control of Congress, or else the newly empowered Democratic majority in the House would impeach him for the third time.

When asked about voters’ top concern—Americans’ worries about high prices—Trump reiterated his claim that the economy is the “strongest” in history, despite data showing persistent high inflation.

In recent weeks, Trump has tried to respond to concerns about living costs in speeches and other actions, but he also called affordability a “scam” by the Democrats, complicating his efforts.

The most powerful U.S. president since the 1930s

In his first year back in the White House, Trump cut the size of the federal civil service, dismantled and closed government agencies, significantly reduced foreign humanitarian aid, ordered large-scale immigration raids and deportations, and dispatched National Guard units to cities controlled by Democrats.

He also triggered a trade war by imposing tariffs on goods from most countries, passed a large-scale tax cut and spending reduction bill, sued political opponents, canceled or restricted access to certain vaccines, and attacked universities, law firms, and media organizations.

Although he promised to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict on his first day in office, Trump made little progress on peace agreements, claiming he had ended eight wars. Given that some hotspots remain ongoing, this claim has been widely questioned.

Historians and analysts say that all modern presidents have tried to expand presidential power, but Trump’s expansion of executive authority this year has been unprecedented. He achieved this through executive orders and emergency declarations, shifting decision-making power from Congress to the White House.

Most of the conservative majority of the U.S. Supreme Court and the Republican-controlled Congress have largely supported him. Unlike his first term, Trump now has full control over his cabinet, filled with loyalists.

Presidential historian Timothy Naftali said that Trump’s exercise of power in his second term is less constrained than any president since Franklin Roosevelt.

During Roosevelt’s initial years in office from 1933 to 1945, the Democratic president enjoyed an absolute majority in Congress, allowing most of his domestic agenda to pass with little resistance. He also had enormous public support for his efforts to combat the Great Depression, facing a fractured Republican opposition.

Analysts and party strategists say that Trump struggles to convince voters that he understands their struggles with high living costs, which may cause some Republican lawmakers to distance themselves from him to retain their seats in November.

aides say that although Trump himself is not running in the November elections, he will frequently travel to promote his economic agenda this year, trying to persuade voters that he has a plan to lower high prices.

However, his recent economic speeches have often been off-topic, unfocused, and he continues to focus most of his attention on foreign affairs. This lack of disciplined messaging has caused concern among some Republican strategists and candidates.