Elon Musk tears down Tesla's "car company" label! Optimus robot supports a $25 trillion valuation ambition

Elon Musk states that Optimus will lead Tesla, with a valuation potentially reaching 25 trillion USD. Investor Calacanis predicts that “in the future, no one will remember Tesla making cars,” to which Musk responds, “That’s very likely to come true.” Once the company’s identity shifts from “car manufacturer” to “replacement labor force,” the imagination space jumps from trillions to tens of trillions.

Musk Proactively Dismantles the “Tesla as a Car Company” Identity

Recently, Musk declared that Tesla’s future might be dominated by humanoid robots like Optimus, believing this plan has the capacity to support Tesla reaching a valuation of up to 25 trillion USD. Similarly, a few days ago, Silicon Valley investor Jason Calacanis threw out a provocative idea: “In the future, no one will remember Tesla ever made cars; everyone will only remember that they mass-produced 1 billion Optimus robots.” Tesla CEO Musk then responded on social media, “Very likely to come true.”

This could imply a future path where “Tesla gradually shifts from traditional automotive business to a core focus on robots and intelligent systems.” There are quickly two interpretations in public discourse: one that this is a new story to explain slowing growth in the automotive sector; another that this marks the beginning of the next industrial revolution. But what truly matters is not whether robots will succeed, but—he is actively dismantling the identity of “Tesla as a car company.” Once the identity is rewritten, all the rules will be rewritten accordingly.

Many people do not realize that the true ceiling of a company has never been technology, but rather “which industry you are categorized into.” Once you are defined as a car company, your growth logic, valuation model, competitors, and even management language are all pre-written. No matter how hard you try, the capital market will ultimately place you in the same category as Toyota, Volkswagen, BYD. It’s a pre-calculated table. Musk’s goal is not to make this table more beautiful, but to tear it up directly.

Therefore, when he talks about robots, it’s not just about the product. He is discussing whether Tesla has the qualification to leap out of the “transportation tool company” label and be understood as a “real-world intelligent system company.” Once the identity shifts from “selling cars” to “replacing labor,” the company’s imaginative space jumps from trillions to tens of trillions. Note, this is not a valuation trick, but a change in industry attributes. Cars solve mobility efficiency; robots address production efficiency. The latter is always more expensive.

From Autonomous Driving to Robotics: A Natural Extension of the Technical Path

From an engineering perspective, this path is not just imagination. The perception, decision-making, and motion control accumulated in autonomous driving are inherently part of the same intelligent system; manufacturing systems, supply chain capabilities, and scaling experience are naturally compatible with robot mass production. Optimus is not Tesla’s “sudden new idea,” but one of the natural endpoints of its technical trajectory over the past decade. In other words—cars are more like an intermediate state.

Tesla has invested over ten years in autonomous driving, accumulating massive visual recognition data, neural network training experience, and real-time decision algorithms. These technologies fundamentally aim to enable machines to understand the real world and react accordingly. Whether the carrier is a car or a humanoid robot, the underlying logic is highly similar. Tesla’s FSD (Full Self-Driving) system processes data from millions of vehicles worldwide daily, giving it an advantage in real-world training that other robot companies find hard to match.

In terms of manufacturing capability, Tesla has already demonstrated its strength in large-scale production. The construction speed and ramp-up efficiency of Shanghai Gigafactory, Berlin Factory, and Texas Factory far surpass traditional automakers. The core capabilities of this manufacturing system—automated assembly lines, supply chain management, quality control—can be fully replicated in robot production. When Calacanis mentions “mass-producing 1 billion Optimus,” he is seeing Tesla’s scalable manufacturing system.

But the problem lies precisely here. Robots can be demonstrated through technology and videos, but commercialization is extremely slow. In the short term, it’s almost impossible to generate cash flow as quickly as electric vehicles. It’s not about engineering capability, but about corporate endurance, capital structure, and organizational resilience. This is a “correct but long” road, and few companies can walk it.

The Industry Attribute Revolution Behind the $25 Trillion Valuation

So the real question is not whether to make robots, but a more brutal one: if your main business is gradually entering a predictable zone, do you have the ability and courage to proactively find the next map for your company? Most companies are not hindered by execution, but by “identity inertia.” We’ve always been in this business, the market is this big, just do well with what you have now. These words sound stable, but their common point is: presuming the future can only happen within old boundaries.

The $25 trillion valuation sounds crazy, but if Tesla is redefined as a “replacement labor company,” this number can logically hold. The global labor market exceeds 100 trillion USD; if Optimus can replace 10% of repetitive labor, with appropriate profit margins, a valuation of 25 trillion USD is not impossible. The key is whether the market believes this transformation is feasible.

The true value of Musk’s recent statement is not whether robots will succeed, but that he is once again reminding all entrepreneurs: when an industry starts competing on efficiency, it indicates it has entered the second half; and the real determinant of fate often occurs at the moment you dare to exit early and redefine yourself. Whether robots are the answer, time will tell. But if you don’t even have the courage to “change the question,” then even if the answer is right, it’s not your turn.

Tesla’s current stock price still reflects the valuation logic of its automotive business. If Musk succeeds in convincing the capital market to accept Tesla’s new identity as a “robot company,” the valuation model will be thoroughly rewritten. This is not simply business diversification, but a fundamental shift in industry attributes. Investors need to start thinking: are you buying a mature automaker, or a nascent robot startup that has yet to prove itself? These two identities determine completely different risk and return structures.