XRP Price Alert: Hidden Bullish Divergence Signals Potential Rally Repeat

XRP is forming a critical hidden bullish divergence pattern, the same technical structure that preceded its massive 2017 and 2024 rallies. Amid a broader market downturn and panic selling by holders, this analysis explores whether history is about to repeat for the Ripple network token. Discover the key price levels, on-chain data, and expert insights shaping XRP’s 2026 outlook.

XRP at a Critical Juncture: Market Turbulence Meets Bullish Signal

The cryptocurrency market remains ensnared in a persistent bearish grip. Bitcoin struggles to reclaim the $70,000 level, and the global market capitalization has shed approximately $2 trillion since its October 2025 peak of $4.27 trillion. This widespread downturn has dragged down major altcoins, including XRP. The digital asset, affiliated with the Ripple payment network, has experienced a steep 62% correction from its all-time high of $3.66, recorded in July 2025.

Yet, within this climate of fear and declining prices, a beacon of potential hope is emerging on the technical charts. Prominent market analyst “Guy on the Earth” has highlighted that XRP may be forming another “hidden bullish divergence” on its weekly chart. This is the precise same pattern that was observable before the token’s historic 82,650% surge in 2017/2018 and its subsequent 1,162% rally in 2024/2025. This development raises a crucial question for investors: Is** **XRP setting the stage for another monumental price expansion, or is this merely a deceptive signal in a continuing bear market?

Decoding the Hidden Bullish Divergence Pattern on XRP Charts

A hidden bullish divergence (HBD) is a sophisticated technical analysis pattern that often appears during a longer-term uptrend. It occurs when the price of an asset forms a higher low, indicating underlying strength, while a momentum oscillator like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) or MACD simultaneously prints a lower low. This discrepancy suggests that while selling pressure may be weakening (as shown by the oscillator), the asset’s price is holding up relatively well, potentially foreshadowing a continuation of the prior uptrend.

In XRP’s current case, the pattern is theorized to have formed with two key price points. The initial low was established back in July 2024 at approximately $0.3834. At that time, the weekly RSI reading was 33.18. Fast forward to the recent market turmoil of early February 2026, XRP found a temporary floor at $1.11 following a broad market sell-off. Crucially, this $1.11 level constitutes a** higher low compared to the 2024 bottom. However, the weekly RSI at this $1.11 floor registered a **lower low of 30.68. This alignment of a higher price low with a lower momentum indicator low is what constitutes the potential hidden bullish divergence.

It is vital to understand that this pattern does not guarantee an immediate, explosive rally. As “Guy on the Earth” cautions, it does not automatically confirm that $1.11 is the absolute bottom. The price could still drop to a lower level. However, the pattern’s core message is that whenever the bottoming process concludes—whether at $1.11 or a future price—the subsequent move could be powerfully bullish if the divergence structure remains valid on the higher time frames.

Historical Precedents: When Hidden Divergence Preceded Parabolic Moves

The significance of this signal is magnified by XRP’s own price history, where similar setups led to life-changing returns for early investors.

The 2015-2018 Mega Rally: In November 2015, XRP formed a hidden bullish divergence with a higher price low at $0.0042 and a lower RSI low of 32.76. What followed was one of the most legendary bull runs in crypto history. By January 2018, XRP skyrocketed to approximately $3.3—an unimaginable 82,650% increase from that divergence low.

The 2022-2025 Bull Cycle: The pattern repeated in June 2022. XRP printed a higher low at $0.29 while the RSI marked a lower low of 28.08. This setup preceded the run to its all-time high of $3.66 by July 2025, representing a formidable 1,162% gain over a three-year period.

These historical patterns suggest a pattern of significant, albeit sometimes delayed, bullish resolutions following this specific technical signal.

On-Chain Data Reveals Panic: XRP Holders Realize Major Losses

While the technical chart paints a potentially optimistic long-term picture, the short-term on-chain reality is one of significant stress and capitulation. Data from analytics firm Glassnode reveals a troubling trend: the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for XRP has flipped negative, falling from 1.16 in late July 2025 to 0.96 as of February 2026. An SOPR below 1 indicates that, on average, coins being moved on-chain are being sold at a loss.

This metric underscores a wave of panic selling and realized losses among XRP holders. The trend began in August 2025 as prices started their decline from the highs. Long-term holders, who had accumulated before the November 2024 rally, dramatically increased their spending, with daily sell pressure rising from $38 million to a peak of $260 million per day. This was not distribution into strength during a rally, but rather a classic sign of “selling into weakness.”

By mid-November 2025, the share of XRP supply in profit had plummeted to 58.5%, the lowest level since November 2024 when XRP traded around $0.53. The stark reality was that even with XRP’s price around $2.15 at that time—four times higher than in late 2024—over 41% of the circulating supply was held at a loss. This created a top-heavy and structurally fragile market dominated by late buyers who bought near the peak.

Capitulation or Structural Failure? Interpreting the Market Sentiment

The intense selling pressure and plunge below key psychological levels, such as $2, have led to a critical debate: Is the** **XRP market experiencing a healthy, if painful, capitulation phase, or is it facing a more profound structural failure?

Capitulation is a period of extreme selling where even steadfast holders give up, often marking a sentiment bottom. The surge in realized losses—with weekly figures hitting between $500 million and $1.2 billion during retests of the $2 zone—along with the negative SOPR, are hallmarks of such a phase. Many experts lean toward this interpretation, citing that the fundamental backdrop for XRP and Ripple is stronger now than in previous bear markets, particularly with greater regulatory clarity achieved in recent years.

A structural failure would imply a more permanent breakdown in the asset’s value proposition or market dynamics, which current data does not conclusively support. The parallel often drawn is to the period from September 2021 to May 2022, when XRP’s SOPR also fell below 1. That phase was followed by a prolonged consolidation and eventual stabilization, rather than a perpetual decline.

Strategic Outlook for XRP: Navigating Uncertainty in 2026

For investors and traders observing** **XRP in February 2026, the landscape presents a complex mix of extreme short-term bearish sentiment and a tantalizing long-term technical signal. Navigating this requires a balanced, multi-faceted strategy.

First, respect the current market momentum. The hidden bullish divergence is not a timing tool for immediate entry. It is a conditional setup that requires confirmation. Investors should watch for a firm hold above key support levels and, crucially, a break above recent lower highs on the weekly chart to signal that the downtrend may be exhausting itself. The $1.11 level is now critical short-term support, while a drop below could see the search for a bottom extend further.

Second, view on-chain capitulation as a potential contrarian indicator, albeit a late-stage one. Mass panic selling often, though not always, precedes major bottoms as weak hands are flushed out. Monitoring the SOPR for a sustained move back above 1 could be a key signal that selling pressure is abating.

Finally, manage expectations regarding timeframe. Historical precedents show that the rallies following these divergence patterns took years, not weeks or months, to fully materialize. Any investment thesis based on this pattern should be framed with a long-term horizon, acknowledging the possibility of further volatility and consolidation before a decisive upward trend resumes.