Weekly Strategy Report February 12, 2026

1. Weekly Market Overview

This week, the cryptocurrency market continued its extreme panic mode, with the Fear & Greed Index dropping to 9, hitting a new low for the current phase. The total market capitalization fell back to $2.29 trillion, down 1.86% over 24 hours, with downward pressure remaining. Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) maintained weak consolidation; short-term indicators show slight rebound and oscillation signals, but the medium- to long-term still reflect oversold and weak patterns. ETF capital flows remain predominantly outflowing, with Bitcoin outflows slightly slowing and Ethereum outflows further increasing, indicating persistent institutional risk aversion. The derivatives market shows divergence: futures hedging demand slightly increases, perpetual contracts continue deleveraging, and market risk appetite stays low, maintaining a weak bottoming process overall.

On the macro front, expectations of tightening liquidity by the Federal Reserve and ongoing global economic uncertainties continue to disturb the market, suppressing the performance of crypto risk assets. Regarding regulation, many countries are accelerating compliance and risk management efforts; the US is advancing crypto regulation bill negotiations, and Hong Kong has issued standards for cross-border asset tokenization (RWA). Industry-wise, Ethereum’s technological iteration and Layer 2 development progress steadily, with on-chain AI trading tools being implemented; although short-term capital is withdrawing, institutions continue to deploy in compliant crypto products and stablecoins, reinforcing the long-term trend of industry compliance and institutionalization despite short-term volatility.

2. Core Market Trends and Capital Flows

This week, the overall crypto market remains in a highly weak, bottoming pattern, with sentiment further deteriorating. Market cap continues to decline, hitting new lows for the phase. Mainstream coins fluctuate narrowly, with significant divergence between short- and long-term indicators. ETF capital flows remain predominantly outflowing, derivatives continue deleveraging, and risk aversion is high, indicating the bottoming process is still incomplete.

Market sentiment, as measured by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, slightly declined from 11 last week to 9, remaining in extreme fear territory, with pessimism spreading further. Despite minor recovery signs in major coins, risk-averse capital behavior persists. Coupled with macro and regulatory uncertainties, investor confidence remains low, with no signs of sentiment recovery. The market is still under pressure, in a weak phase.

In terms of market capitalization, the total crypto market cap is currently $2.29 trillion, down 1.86% in 24 hours, continuing the recent accelerated decline and hitting a new low. Buying support remains weak, and the market cap shrinkage persists, with short-term pressure still dominant and the bottoming process yet to begin.

Focusing on the two main cryptocurrencies, BTC and ETH, both show short-term consolidation and medium- to long-term weakness. BTC is priced at $67,251.77, down 0.41% in 24 hours and 6.03% over 7 days, with market share slightly decreasing to 58.43%. Short-term indicators are mixed, in consolidation, with long-term oversold but still weak. ETH is at $1,970.16, down 0.26% in 24 hours and 7.61% over 7 days, with market share dropping to 10.31%. ETH has some rebound momentum in the short term but faces resistance; the long-term downtrend remains clear. Both require cautious trading, strict position and stop-loss controls.

Regarding capital flows, ETF markets continue to see net outflows, with institutional risk aversion persisting. Bitcoin ETFs saw slightly reduced outflows compared to last week, with a marginal slowdown in withdrawal pace; Ethereum ETF outflows further increased, and overall capital remains a market pressure without signs of institutional inflows.

In derivatives, divergence persists: futures open interest slightly increased, hedging demand rose modestly; perpetual contracts’ open interest sharply declined, with high-leverage positions being cleared out, reducing market risk exposure, but trading activity remains low.

Overall, the crypto market is in a highly pessimistic mood, with market cap under continuous pressure and weak capital flows. Major coins are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a long-term weak trend. Institutional withdrawals and deleveraging continue. It is necessary to wait for sentiment stabilization, capital inflows, and support levels to firm up before adopting more aggressive strategies. Defensive positioning and rational responses to short-term fluctuations are recommended.

3. Selected Trading Strategies

4. High-Yield Strategy

Highlights:

• Extremely high win rate: 100% historical success, no losses, highly accurate signals.
• Strong profit potential: over 200% actual return, ideal for high-volatility small-cap coins.
• Reasonable risk-reward ratio: Sharpe ratio of 32, balancing return and risk.
• Moderate trading frequency: 81 trades, suitable for MEME coin rotation.

Suitable for traders with high risk tolerance seeking high win rates and high returns, especially designed for hot MEME tokens like PEPE, suitable for pulse-like trading driven by hype and capital rotation. Not suitable for long-term conservative funds or during extreme bearish trends.

2. High-Frequency Trading Strategy

Highlights:

• Outstanding risk-reward: Sharpe ratio of 27, excellent among high-frequency strategies, high return per unit risk.
• Stable returns: smooth profit curve, no large fluctuations, strong stability, suitable for compound growth.
• Designed for highly liquid assets: tailored for BTC, leveraging its deep market liquidity.
• Attractive annualized return: over 30% predicted by AI, competitive among high-frequency strategies.

Suitable for investors with moderate risk appetite seeking stable, low-volatility returns, designed for BTC, ideal for quantitative arbitrage and swing trading in sideways markets. Can serve as a steady core strategy, especially for those aiming to avoid single-sided volatility and pursue stable compounding. Not suitable for extreme bearish conditions.

3. High-Stability Strategy

Highlights:

• Perfect win rate: 100% success historically, no losses, highly accurate signals.
• Excellent drawdown control: max drawdown only 75%, very low volatility among mainstream coin strategies, high capital safety.
• Good return elasticity: over 100% actual return, strong performance in ETH and similar mainstream coins.
• Reasonable risk-reward: Sharpe ratio of 90, balancing gains and risks under low drawdown.

Suitable for moderate risk traders seeking low-volatility, stable returns on mainstream coins, designed for ETH and similar high-liquidity tokens. Fits trend and reversal trading in sideways markets, serving as a conservative enhancement for mainstream coin portfolios. Not suitable for ultra-conservative long-term funds or during extreme bearish phases.

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4. 24-Hour Top Gainers and Losers

Top 5 Gainers:

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Top 5 Losers:

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5. Conclusion

This week, the crypto market remains under the dual pressures of extreme fear, continuous ETF outflows, and macro uncertainties, maintaining a weak bottoming pattern. Mainstream coins fluctuate divergently, leverage continues to deleverage, and short-term selling pressure persists. However, industry compliance efforts are progressing steadily, technological iteration continues, and long-term institutional deployment remains unchanged, laying a foundation for medium- and long-term recovery. Future focus should be on BTC’s key support stabilization, ETF capital inflow signals, and macro liquidity trends. Structurally, opportunities may arise in compliant crypto products, mainnet upgrades, and stablecoin sectors. Positioning should be cautious, with rational responses to short-term volatility. Stay tuned for the latest market insights and strategy analyses in this column.