XRP Now Needs a “Touch-and-Go” Signal at This 8-Year Resistance Line to Recover

XRP is now on the verge of backtesting a previous breakout from an 8-year resistance trendline, and this could trigger the reversal push.

The crypto market has continued to face bearish pressure, with the latest recovery push facing a stern roadblock. XRP also witnessed this recent setback, dropping 0.44% on Thursday, and now changing hands at $1.35 amid a 52.4% decline since Q4 2025.

However, data from the 1-month chart indicates that the ongoing downtrend is “part of the plan,” as XRP seems to be eyeing a backtest of a resistance trendline breakout. For context, this trendline forms part of a multi-year symmetrical triangle that XRP breached in November 2024. Now, a successful backtest could set the stage for a full-blown trend reversal.

Key Points

• XRP has suffered massive losses alongside the rest of the crypto market, down 26.16% year-to-date and 52.4% since Q4 2025.
• Market data indicates that the downtrend, which has persisted for five consecutive months now, may be part of a natural plan following a breakout.
• XRP broke above the upper resistance trendline of a multi-year symmetrical triangle in November 2024, soaring to as high as $3.4 by January 2025.
• Now, the ongoing retracement appears to be a natural effort from the market to backtest the resistance trendline.
• A successful backtest of this trendline could set the stage for a bullish trend reversal, while a break back into the triangle would lead to bearish implications.

XRP Breaks Above the Symmetrical Triangle

Notably, this triangle started forming in early 2017, as XRP soared from $0.005 in March 2017 to the peak of $3.31 by January 2018. From here, a downturn emerged, leading to consistent lower highs. Meanwhile, on the downside, XRP managed to maintain a trend of higher lows despite the price weakness at the time.

XRP 1M Graph | Chart NerdThis combination of lower highs and higher lows led to the formation of a symmetrical triangle on the 1-month chart, which lingered for seven years. XRP staged a breakout above the upper resistance trendline during the November 2024 rally, with prices eventually pushing to a peak of $3.4 by January 2025 before another recovery push led to $3.66 in July 2025.

Market Now Attempting a Backtest

Since then, it has been downhill, with XRP currently down 63% from the $3.66 peak. With XRP seeing consistent monthly declines since October 2025, the chart data indicates that the altcoin may now be heading toward backtesting the November 2024 breakout.

Such a backtest is usually a natural market process, as it represents a necessary step to evaluate whether the breakout has enough strength to continue the previous uptrend. As a result, Chart Nerd emphasized that this backtest of the resistance trendline, which has now lingered for 8 years, was “part of the plan.”

He believes what the market needs now is a “touch-and-go” signal. This would occur only if XRP drops to “touch” the resistance trendline and then recovers from it, making the backtest successful. If this happens, Chart Nerd places the recovery target between $7.7 and $33, with multiple Fibonacci extensions, including 1.272 ($9.13), 1.414 ($15.02), and 1.618 ($30.7), existing within this range.

Important Caveat

However, XRP’s push toward the resistance trendline would not guarantee an automatic recovery. Notably, if the asset fails to maintain a price above the trendline and instead breaks back into the triangle, this would invalidate the bullish structure. In this case, further declines could emerge within the triangle.