Solana at Critical Support: Bounce to $100 or Breakdown Next?

• _Solana tests $78–$80 support as analysts warn any rebound remains corrective within a downtrend. _
• Break above $100 needed to weaken bearish structure, loss of support signals trend continuation.
• Fractal study suggests SOL may retrace toward $30–$50 before any long-term move to higher targets.

Solana has entered a critical decision point as the crypto tests key support levels following weeks of sustained downward pressure. The digital asset currently trades at $86.21, marking an 8.33% gain over the past 24 hours despite broader bearish conditions.

Trading volume remains robust at $3.67 billion in the last 24 hours. SOL has climbed 0.90% over the past week. The token now attempts to stabilize after breaking below previous consolidation patterns.

Technical Structure Shows Clear Downtrend

BitGuru highlighted that SOL remains locked in a clear downtrend after breaking below consolidation. The chart reveals a sequence of lower highs and lower lows since mid-January.

$SOL is still in a clear downtrend after breaking below consolidation. Price is now sitting near the 78–80 support zone and trying to rebound.

If this level holds, a short-term bounce toward 95–100 is possible. If it loses support, downside continuation remains likely. pic.twitter.com/vnMPz2neqZ

— BitGuru 🔶 (@bitgu_ru) February 13, 2026

Price previously traded inside a consolidation range before breaking down decisively. That breakdown shifted the market from sideways movement into active selling pressure. Sellers currently maintain control of the market structure.

A bearish diagonal trendline connects the breakdown points from mid-January into early February. Any current bounce appears corrective rather than trend-reversing. The technical setup favors continuation of the established downtrend unless key resistance levels break.

Support Zone Between $78-$80 Under Test

The cryptocurrency now sits near the $78-$80 support zone and attempts to rebound from this level. This area previously acted as a reaction zone where selling pressure slowed.

Candles near this support show smaller bodies and reduced downside momentum. Short-term stabilization efforts are visible on the chart. Temporary buyer interest has emerged but lacks confirmation of a full reversal.

If this support level holds, BitGuru projects a short-term bounce toward $95-$100. That zone aligns with prior consolidation areas and the former breakdown region. Overhead selling pressure likely waits at those levels.

The $95-$100 range would still classify as a bear-market rally unless price breaks above and holds. A reclaim above $100 would be needed to weaken the current downtrend narrative.

Historical Fractal Suggests Deeper Retracement Possible

Crypto Patel shared a fractal analysis comparing current conditions to Solana’s 2020-2021 cycle. During that period, SOL surged from $1.07 to $260, gaining 24,234%.

#Solana Fractal Alert: Last Time This Happened, It Pumped 24,234%

Cycle 1 ◉ 2020-2021: $1.07 → $260 (+24,234%)
Correction Phase ◉ Then Crashed -97% to $7.78

Cycle 2 ◉ 2022-2025: $7.78 → $295 (+3,700%)
Correction Phase ◉ Now down -77% from ATH

Pattern Suggests:$SOL Price… pic.twitter.com/yB2IwvX5xV

— Crypto Patel (@CryptoPatel) February 14, 2026

The token then crashed 97% to $7.78 before starting its second major cycle. From 2022 to 2025, Solana rallied from $7.78 to $295, a 3,700% increase.

SOL has now corrected 77% from its all-time high. If the historical pattern repeats, deeper retracement toward Fibonacci levels between 0.5 and 0.618 remains possible. Crypto Patel identified a potential accumulation zone between $30 and $50.

Long-term targets of $500 to $1,000 were mentioned if the fractal plays out. However, the analyst emphasized that past patterns don’t guarantee future results.

Critical Decision Point Ahead

The immediate outlook depends entirely on whether the $78-$80 support zone holds or fails. A successful defense could trigger a relief rally toward $95-$100.

Loss of support would confirm continuation of the established downtrend. Structure would favor additional downside following the trend channel. The next leg lower would extend the pattern of lower lows.

Traders should monitor the $78-$80 zone closely as the decisive level. Volume patterns and price action near this support will determine the short-term direction. The broader technical structure remains bearish until proven otherwise.