Analysis: The bear market may continue until mid-2027. Close attention should be paid to the crossover signals between the 90-day moving average and the 365-day moving average.

PANews, February 17 — Cryptocurrency analyst Axel stated in a personal blog post that this bear market cycle began around October 2025 with a historical high of approximately $125,000. The Entity-Adjusted Liveliness indicator confirmed this, reaching a cycle peak of 0.02676 in December 2025. This indicator typically lags behind price movements and is now reversing downward.

Historically, such reversals have often marked the start of an accumulation phase lasting from 1.1 to 2.5 years. The charts clearly show the previous two accumulation cycles: the 2020 bear market lasted 1.1 years, and the 2022–2024 bear market lasted 2.5 years. Both cycles started in a very similar manner, with the green line reversing from the peak into a sustained downtrend, with prices following downward. The current pattern is structurally identical.

If historical patterns repeat, this accumulation phase could last at least until the end of 2026, with a more realistic expectation extending into mid-2027. A key confirmation signal would be the 90-day moving average reversing downward and breaking below the 365-day moving average (0.02622) from above. Before this crossover occurs, there remains a possibility of a mid-cycle reset and a restart of the upward trend.