Dogecoin On-Chain Losses Hit Record High: 1,100 Days of "Profit Days" Warning that DOGE May Enter a Two-Year Bottoming Cycle
February 25 News: Dogecoin (DOGE) is currently in a critical structural and technical range. On-chain research firm AMBCrypto pointed out that its price has entered a rare historical discount level, a characteristic often associated with long-term bottom formation rather than short-term reversals. Data shows that the “profit days” indicator has risen to a new high of 1,100 days in history, meaning that the vast majority of past trading days had prices above the current level, and many DOGE holders are still deeply in the red.
This phenomenon typically occurs in the later stages of a market correction cycle, reflecting significant remaining supply and a large number of long-term holders, but the structural cycle indicators have not yet shown clear signs of bottoming out. Looking at net position changes among holders, during the 2021 and 2024 bull market ends, large amounts of DOGE were sold at cycle peaks, while continuous buying in the $0.095 to $0.34 range significantly increased the overall cost basis.
Notably, since January 2025, persistent dip-buying combined with bullish expectations for Bitcoin (BTC) that failed to materialize by October 2025 caused DOGE’s price to decline from $0.35 to about $0.092 over the past year, further expanding unrealized losses. The MVRV pricing zone model shows that in both historical cycles, DOGE oscillated near 0.8x of its actual price for nearly two years before regaining key support levels. If this historical pattern continues, DOGE’s price trend, MVRV valuation range, and on-chain holder behavior may suggest it is still in a long-term bottoming phase, and reclaiming the actual price support of around $0.140 could take more time to absorb selling pressure.
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