Bitcoin sideways, the market holds its breath before US–Iran negotiations

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading steadily around $68,000 as of Thursday, after a strong 6.2% rally in the previous session. However, the overall trend still leans toward a decline. The recent recovery of the “king of cryptocurrencies” has been significantly supported by institutional demand, as spot Bitcoin ETF funds recorded inflows for the second consecutive day this week. Meanwhile, the market remains on edge, awaiting the third nuclear negotiation round between the US and Iran on Thursday — a potential catalyst for major volatility in the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

Institutional Demand Returns

Institutional buying demand is becoming a key support for Bitcoin’s price movement this week. According to data from SoSoValue, spot Bitcoin ETF funds saw a net inflow of $506.51 million on Wednesday, following $257.71 million the day before. This strong and continuous capital inflow indicates that institutional investors’ confidence is returning, opening the possibility for BTC to sustain and extend its recovery if the positive trend continues.

Daily net inflow chart into Bitcoin Spot ETF | Source: SoSoValue

Alongside this, market sentiment has been further boosted by Nvidia’s (NVDA) Q4 earnings exceeding expectations. Wall Street closed Wednesday’s trading session at a one-week high after the chip giant announced Q4 revenue of $68.1 billion, up 73% year-over-year. This impressive performance not only reinforces the growth story around artificial intelligence (AI) but also ignites risk appetite across the market, giving a boost that helped BTC rise 6% and close firmly above $67,900 on the same day.

US–Iran Negotiations Could Trigger BTC Volatility

Global investors are closely watching developments between the US and Iran, as the two countries are expected to hold their third round of negotiations in Geneva on Thursday to resolve long-standing nuclear issues. This comes amid rising concerns that Washington may soon carry out a military strike, following the deployment of large-scale military forces in the Middle East.

In the Federal Reserve speech released early Wednesday Asian trading, US President Donald Trump emphasized a tough stance, stating that military action is a necessary option and reaffirming that the US will not allow a country he considers the world’s biggest state sponsor of terrorism to possess nuclear weapons.

If US–Iran talks end without significant progress, geopolitical risks are likely to continue weighing on the market. This scenario could undermine investor sentiment, drive capital into safe-haven assets like gold, and exert downward pressure on Bitcoin.

Conversely, any positive signals or diplomatic breakthroughs could help ease tensions, restore market confidence, and support a recovery of risk assets. In such cases, Bitcoin would have more room to extend its upward momentum.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: Slight Recovery Signal

On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin is oscillating around $68,000 as of Friday. Short-term technicals are slightly tilted toward an uptrend, with the price holding above the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) at around $66,900 and testing the 100-period EMA near $68,500. This suggests the market is trying to break out of a recovery phase to form a clearer short-term bullish trend.

Momentum remains supported as the RSI on the 4-hour chart stays around 60, indicating positive buying strength but not yet overbought. Meanwhile, the MACD remains above its signal line and above zero, with positive histogram bars expanding, showing increasing upward pressure after bouncing from the $63,000 support zone — the low established on Tuesday.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart | Source: TradingView

On the support side, the 50-period EMA around $66,900 acts as an important first buffer. If selling pressure increases, a deeper support zone is identified near $60,000, where strong horizontal support converges.

On the resistance side, the nearest hurdle is at the 100-period EMA around $68,500. If Bitcoin can break through and hold above this level, the price is likely to extend its gains toward the upper channel, with the next target around $71,600.