Bitcoin "Exchange Whale Ratio" soars to 0.64, the highest since 2015. Is this a warning sign of selling pressure or a turning point?

According to the latest data from CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio reached 0.64 on February 20, 2026, the highest level since 2015. This indicator tracks the proportion of inflows from the top ten inflows relative to total exchange deposits, indicating that large holders now account for 64% of total inflows.

Image source: CryptoQuant/X

Excessive Concentration Could Trigger Sharp Price Corrections
This surge reflects increased activity by “whales,” who are depositing large amounts of Bitcoin into platforms like Binance. Especially during the correction from Bitcoin’s high of $126,080 in October 2025 down 47% to around $67,200, liquidity tightening may have intensified selling pressure. Analysts warn that such concentration could lead to significant price corrections, particularly as Bitcoin attempts to recover from recent declines. Whales might take advantage of limited buyer liquidity to realize profits.

This indicator measures the proportion of top inflows relative to total exchange deposits, which has recently risen sharply, especially on Binance: from 0.4 to 0.62 between February 2 and 15. The 30-day average whale inflow on Binance reached $8.3 billion, the highest since 2024. Some inflows originate from early Bitcoin holders, with about 10,000 BTC transferred to platforms (possibly related to “BTC OG Insider Whales” or Garrett Jin). Since January 2026, Binance’s total inflow has been approximately 363,000 BTC.

Historically, such high ratios often precede market declines, as whales reposition amid uncertainty, contrasting with retail accumulation in early 2025. The retail-to-whale ratio has fallen to 1.45, the lowest since mid-2024, indicating a shift toward large players. Despite ETF demand causing exchange reserves to decline steadily (daily inflows dropping from 60,000 BTC on February 6 to recent levels of 23,000 BTC), whale activity has reversed into oversupply, serving as a warning.

The market context adds urgency: recent patterns resemble the volatility of 2025, when whale selling conflicted with institutional buying. During the peak sell-off in 2025, whales distributed holdings, with no exact data on 115,000 BTC, but a clear distribution trend overall. ETF net inflows totaled about $53 billion (peaking near $63 billion at year-end). Recent ETF outflows (-$111 million on February 18, -$113.9 million on the 17th) have increased pressure. As Q4 seasonal strength wanes, long-term holders are beginning to distribute, risking volatility in a low-liquidity market. Macroeconomic factors, such as the Fed injecting $18.5 billion into overnight repos (the fourth-largest since COVID) and Trump considering limited strikes on Iran, also heighten uncertainty. The Fear & Greed Index has hit extreme fear (11), and searches for “Bitcoin is dead” have peaked.

Although bullish ETF momentum has kept Bitcoin dominance above 55%, the 0.64 ratio highlights a shift from accumulation to selling, differing from the whale preference for accumulation in mid-2025. Traders should monitor whether this ratio falls below recent highs, which in the past has signaled easing pressure and rebounds. Currently, the high level suggests caution in the short term to avoid downside risks. Additionally, signs of potential reversal include positive ETF net flows, accelerated on-chain accumulation, or improved macro liquidity.

Is Bitcoin Finally Showing Positive Signals?
Furthermore, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on the 21st that, “Bitcoin demand has rebounded after three months of weakness, finally showing some positive signs!” He noted that since the beginning of the year, the dynamics suppressing Bitcoin demand have started to shift. After Bitcoin’s monthly on-chain demand hit a low of -154,000 BTC on December 18 last year, demand has gradually improved and recently returned to positive territory, around +1,200 BTC.

Image source: CryptoQuant – @Darkfost_Coc/X

This reversal ends nearly three months of negative demand, which was a major factor behind Bitcoin’s prolonged price stagnation.