KAIKO Research: The Rise of Gold and Silver and an Analysis of the Competitive Landscape with Bitcoin

2025 is a year worth paying attention to in the commodities market, especially in gold and silver. These two precious metals have shown strong momentum amid changing macroeconomic conditions, attracting many investors’ attention. According to Kaiko Research, this trend is driven by changes in the monetary environment and structural factors. Gold and silver are not only affected by macroeconomic uncertainty and increased safe-haven demand but also react strongly to changes in monetary policy, showing a continuous upward trend. Particularly in 2025, gold rose over 60%, and silver surged up to 150%, partly due to the sustained growth in industrial demand.

In early 2026, the precious metals market experienced adjustments due to various factors. Kaiko Research pointed out that with the nomination of the new Federal Reserve chair, gold and silver prices dropped sharply. This is interpreted as the market reflecting a shift in policy tone, leading to reduced demand for safe-haven assets like gold. However, crude oil (WTI), which underperformed in 2025, began to recover from early 2026, diverging from the trend of precious metals. Crude oil is more influenced by supply and demand factors closely tied to the global economic cycle.

Bitcoin (BTC) hit a record high in 2025 but entered a bear market in the second half of the year, widening the gap with gold. This gap can be observed through Kaiko’s BOLD index, which emphasizes the advantages of building a diversified investment portfolio with gold and Bitcoin—gaining Bitcoin’s returns in a bull market and leveraging gold’s stability in a bear market.

Gold and silver sometimes move in sync, maintaining a strong positive correlation. However, the relationship between Bitcoin and gold is different; the two assets exhibit different behaviors depending on the financial environment and sometimes move in similar directions. This is due to their distinct structural drivers.

In summary, this study, by analyzing market trends in 2025 and early 2026, once again highlights the importance of risk management and diversification in changing environments. Especially, multi-asset diversification strategies like BOLD can be very useful in volatile markets. Lastly, the high volatility of the speculative silver market also indicates that future market conditions will require stronger risk management.