Bitcoin rebounds to $81,500 as the US-China summit eases anxiety in Iran’s market

Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded to about $81,500 on May 15. This rebound was supported by two factors: the U.S.-China leaders’ summit eased the market’s near-term anxiety about the Iran war; and progress in the Senate Banking Committee’s review of the CLARITY Act provided a short-term catalyst. Strong U.S. PPI data continued, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury fell to around 4.46%, putting pressure on expectations for a FED rate cut.

U.S.-China Summit and the Iran Situation: A Shift in Market Sentiment Confirmation

News from the U.S.-China leaders’ summit temporarily redirected market attention away from the Iran war. Driven by the Iran conflict, key Middle East oil transport corridors have been nearly closed for more than two months; Brent crude rose to above $106 per barrel, while WTI futures rose 0.1% to $96.90 per barrel.

The head of multi-asset strategy and research at Berenberg, Ulrich Urbahn, confirmed in a statement: “The summit’s impact on market sentiment will be greater than its impact on any major policy reset. What the market wants to see is a softer tone, fewer tariff threats, and no new restrictions in trade, technology, or geopolitics.”

At the same time, ING analysts warned that expectations for a positive outcome from U.S.-China talks on the Iran issue “may be too high.” The sanctions exemption allowing purchases of Russian oil before May 16 is about to expire; ING analysts said that after the exemption expires, supply conditions will tighten further.

CLARITY Act: The Confirmed Legislative Process After Committee Review

The Senate Banking Committee has completed its review of the CLARITY Act, one of Washington’s most closely watched crypto policy measures. For Bitcoin, a clearer CFTC regulatory framework for Bitcoin as a digital commodity could help drive growth in regulated derivatives markets and increase institutional participation.

After the committee’s passage, for the CLARITY Act to become law it still needs to complete the following steps: a full Senate vote → reconciliation with the House version → submission to the President for signature. Currently, none of the above steps has a confirmed timeline.

Current Macroeconomic Data and Indicators Pending Release

After the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds touched 4.500% on Wednesday (the highest since June last year), it fell back to about 4.46% on May 15. Analysts at Deutsche Bank noted in a report that further analysis of Wednesday’s PPI data shows it has limited impact on the FED’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE). Data scheduled for release on Thursday includes U.S. retail sales data and weekly initial jobless claims.

FAQ

What are the main confirmed drivers behind Bitcoin’s rebound to $81,500 this time?

Two confirmed factors: first, improved market sentiment from the U.S.-China summit temporarily eased negative sentiment toward global assets from the Iran war; second, progress in the Senate Banking Committee’s review of the CLARITY Act provided short-term positive signals from a regulatory perspective. Deutsche Bank analysts also assessed that the impact of the PPI data on the PCE inflation indicator is limited, partially easing market concerns about inflation.

What is the long-term impact of the CLARITY Act committee review on Bitcoin?

If the CLARITY Act ultimately becomes law, it is expected to provide the CFTC with a clearer regulatory framework for Bitcoin as a digital commodity, driving development of regulated derivatives markets and institutional participation. The committee vote is one stage of the legislation process; it still needs to pass a full Senate vote, be reconciled with the House, and be signed by the President. At present, no confirmed timeline is available.

How will the expiration of Russia oil sanctions exemptions (May 16) affect the macro market—what has been confirmed?

ING analysts said that after the sanctions exemption allowing purchases of Russian oil before May 16 expires, supply-side conditions will tighten further. At present, Brent crude is already above $106 per barrel; WTI futures are up to $96.90 per barrel. Market participants are closely tracking supply dynamics after the exemption expires.