BTC 15-minute short-term slightly up 0.37%: heightened US-Iran conflict risk plus easing inflation jointly drive safe-haven demand

From 05:45 to 06:00 (UTC) on July 15, 2026, BTC rose 0.37% within 15 minutes, with a price range of $64,700.7 to $64,975.1 USDT and an amplitude of 0.42%. Over the past 24 hours, BTC is up about 3.42%, rebounding from a low of $62,318 to around $64,627. As market volatility increases, the narrative of renewed risk-on sentiment alongside a recovery in safe-haven demand has strengthened in parallel.

The main driver behind this move is the ongoing escalation of the Iran–U.S. situation across the Strait of Hormuz, along with a significant drop in U.S. June inflation data. On July 15, the U.S. launched another round of strikes targeting Iran and is set to restart a maritime blockade. Brent crude jumped to $104.4 per barrel; the geopolitical conflict has boosted safe-haven demand, and BTC—positioned as a “digital gold” narrative—has attracted inflows. Meanwhile, core inflation in June declined in tandem, marking the first notable cooling in six years. Fed Chair Warsh said there is “zero tolerance” for high inflation but did not signal rate hikes, and expectations of looser liquidity are supportive of risk assets.

Second, gold is also testing the $4,100 resistance level. Spot gold is at $4,013.93 (+0.3%), creating a resonance with BTC’s positively correlated move. Order book data show a bid-to-ask depth ratio of 2.69, indicating a clear bid advantage. At $64,627.3, there is a large buy order wall; the number of Maker orders accounts for 86.0% of the total volume in the top 5 levels. This appears to be institutional order support or accumulation, providing microstructure support at this price. Technically, the 1-hour ADX reached 47.92, confirming a strong short-term directional trend. The MA signals are bullish, and a neutral RSI suggests there is still upside room in the near term.

Going forward, pay close attention to the substantive trajectory of the Iran–U.S. conflict. If the Strait of Hormuz blockade escalates, oil prices may keep climbing, and the safe-haven narrative could continue to support BTC. Conversely, the safe-haven premium may fade quickly. Key resistance to watch is $65,100. The support level to watch is the $64,627 large buy wall; if BTC breaks below the $62,318 short-term low, the bullish thesis would fail. Subsequent Fed messaging and BTC’s coupled move with gold are important indicators to monitor. Investors should stay alert to short-term volatility risks caused by potential swings in geopolitical policy.