CLARITY Bill enters a critical 28-day window! Polymarket: Probability of passing drops to 38%

Based on Polymarket’s prediction market data as of April 27, the probability that the “Clarity Act” (CLARITY Act) will be completed and enacted in 2026 has fallen from a prior peak of 70% to 38-50%. As of April 27, there are only 28 days left until the May 25, 2026 U.S. Memorial Day holiday.

Legislative Progress: Five Gateways, and the First One Has Not Started

According to publicly available legislative records, H.R.3633 passed the U.S. House of Representatives on July 17, 2025, by a vote of 294 to 134. Throughout April 2026, the bill has seen no major public progress in the Senate, with no major hearings or policy event schedules.

From passage in the House to final enactment, H.R.3633 still needs to complete at least the following five steps:

· Senate Banking Committee Markup hearing (not started yet)

· Full Senate floor vote (requires surpassing the filibuster threshold by 60 votes)

· Integration with the Senate Agriculture Committee version (the Agriculture Committee version passed the committee in January 2026)

· Final integration with the House version that passed in July 2025

· Signing into law by President Trump

Moreno’s Final Ultimatum and Industry Sign-On

Ohio Republican Senator Bernie Moreno said publicly on April 22 that H.R.3633 must pass Congress by the end of May; if the committees can take action in May, it may still be possible to complete the legislation by July. According to public reports, more than 100 crypto companies published a joint open letter last week, directly pressuring the Senate Banking Committee to schedule a Markup hearing as soon as possible.

According to the public agenda, before Memorial Day the Senate still needs to address the House DHS appropriations bill and the nomination vote for Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. H.R.3633 will need to compete for legislative time within these priority agendas.

Key Controversy: Divergence Over Stablecoin Yield Regulation

According to publicly available legislative records, the main unresolved point in H.R.3633 is the definition of the regulatory framework for stablecoin yield. In March 2026, Senators Tillis and Alsobrooks reached a compromise proposal, and the White House also stepped in to coordinate, but the direction ultimately did not move forward into a formal Markup process.

French Hill’s Position at the House Financial Services Committee

House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill said earlier this month in an interview with CoinDesk that, on major issues such as stablecoin and decentralized finance (DeFi) sales practices, the House version has already found a solution. He believes the Senate should be able to reach consensus. Hill directly quoted: “I think the Senate, on both FIT21 and CLARITY, has borrowed heavily from the House’s work product; it’s very clear in the Senate Agriculture Committee’s Markup text and in the Senate bill draft.”

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current status of H.R.3633’s progress in the Senate?

According to publicly available legislative records, after H.R.3633 passed the House on July 17, 2025, it moved into the Senate process. As of the time the report was published, the first necessary step—the Senate Banking Committee’s Markup hearing—has still not been scheduled, and there has been no major public progress for H.R.3633 throughout April 2026.

What is Polymarket’s estimated probability for the CLARITY Act being passed in 2026?

Based on Polymarket’s prediction market data, the probability that H.R.3633 will be completed and enacted in 2026 has dropped from a prior peak of 70% to 38-50%; analysts estimate the chance of passage in 2026 is around 50-50 or lower.

What is the main controversy right now regarding the CLARITY Act?

According to publicly available legislative records, the main disagreement centers on the definition of the regulatory framework for stablecoin yield. In March 2026, Senators Tillis and Alsobrooks reached a compromise proposal, but it was not advanced to Markup; multiple issues remain unresolved.