Gate Daily (March 9): MicroStrategy hints at increasing Bitcoin holdings on dips; Kalshi and Polymarket consider raising $20 billion in financing

Bitcoin (BTC) continues its weekend decline, currently around $66,450 as of March 9. MicroStrategy has once again released information related to Bitcoin Tracker, maintaining a buying trend despite market downturns. Kalshi and Polymarket are considering raising funds at a valuation of $20 billion, double the previous rounds. Tokens such as APT, STRK, and SEI will experience large unlocks this week.

Macro Events & Crypto Highlights

1. MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor has again shared information about Bitcoin Tracker, stating: “The Second Century Begins.” Historically, MicroStrategy tends to disclose increased Bitcoin holdings the day after such announcements, indicating the company remains committed to buying during market lows.

2. According to a Saturday report from The Wall Street Journal, market prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are in preliminary talks with potential investors for funding, with valuations approaching $20 billion. These discussions are still in early stages, and whether deals will be finalized remains to be seen.

If these valuations are achieved, these funding rounds could roughly double the companies’ valuations. Kalshi raised $1 billion in December last year, valuing it at $11 billion, led by Sequoia Capital and CapitalG, with investments from Andreessen Horowitz, Paradigm, and others. Polymarket was valued at about $9 billion in October last year, with Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), parent company of NYSE, agreeing to invest up to $2 billion.

3. Token unlock data shows that tokens like APT, STRK, and SEI will undergo large unlocks this week. Specifically: Aptos (APT) will unlock approximately 11.31 million tokens at 6:00 AM Beijing time on March 13, representing about 0.69% of circulating supply, worth roughly $10.5 million.

Starknet (STRK) will unlock about 127 million tokens at 8:00 AM Beijing time on March 15, about 4.40% of circulating supply, worth approximately $4.8 million; Sei (SEI) will unlock about 55.56 million tokens at 8:00 PM Beijing time on March 15, about 1.00% of circulating supply, worth around $3.6 million.

Movement (MOVE) will unlock about 164 million tokens at 8:00 PM Beijing time on March 9, about 5.18% of circulating supply, worth roughly $3.4 million; io.net (IO) will unlock about 13.29 million tokens at 8:00 PM Beijing time on March 11, about 4.37% of circulating supply, worth approximately $1.3 million.

News Highlights

1. The largest CL short whale on Hyperliquid is currently showing an unrealized loss of $3.4 million.

2. The U.S. Department of the Treasury has acknowledged that mixers have legitimate privacy uses and suggests establishing a safe harbor mechanism to temporarily freeze suspicious assets.

3. Mohsen Rezaee’s son, Mojtaba, has been elected as Iran’s new Supreme Leader.

4. Trump: Without my approval, Iran’s new Supreme Leader won’t stay in power for long.

5. Michael Saylor has again posted about Bitcoin Tracker, with potential disclosure of increased holdings this week.

6. Alibaba-affiliated research team reports that AI agent ROME has unauthorizedly initiated cryptocurrency mining.

7. Data shows that tokens like APT, STRK, and SEI will undergo large unlocks this week, with APT unlocking valued at about $10.5 million.

8. Shenzhen Longgang District releases a draft seeking opinions to support the development of OpenClaw and OPC.

Market Trends

1. Latest Bitcoin news: $BTC continues its weekend decline, currently around $66,450. Over the past 24 hours, liquidations reached $149 million, mainly long positions.

2. As more major Middle Eastern oil-producing countries join production cuts, and the Strait of Hormuz is nearly fully closed, coupled with U.S. threats to escalate the ongoing conflict that has disrupted energy markets, oil prices have surged past $110 per barrel. This has raised concerns that rising energy prices could slow U.S. economic growth, leading to a sharp decline in U.S. stock futures before the week’s opening. The Dow Jones Industrial Average just experienced its largest weekly drop in nearly a year last week. Dow futures fell by 806 points, down 1.7%; S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures each declined by 1.5%.

(Source: Gate)

3. According to Gate’s BTC/USDT liquidation map, with the current price at $66,357.50, if the price drops to around $65,640, total long liquidation exceeds $73.7 million; if it rises to around $67,953, total short liquidation exceeds $613 million. Short liquidations are significantly higher than longs, so traders should control leverage wisely to avoid large-scale liquidations during market swings.

(Source: Coinglass)

4. In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin spot inflow was $2.05 billion, outflow was $2.08 billion, with a net outflow of $0.3 billion.

(Source: Coinglass)

5. Over the past 24 hours, net outflows were observed in contracts for $ADA, $DEGO, $RESOLV, $SIGN, and $UAI, indicating trading opportunities.

X KOL Selected Opinions

Phyrex Ni (@Phyrex_Ni): “The last day of the weekend remains consistent with expectations, as ongoing conflicts keep $BTC prices volatile. The geopolitical tensions between Iran and the U.S. seem unlikely to resolve soon, and Iran’s resilience has exceeded many expectations. Trump continues to oscillate on his ‘actions,’ and today he said Iran’s next Supreme Leader must be approved by the U.S., which fuels Iranian resistance.”

“The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has drastically reduced oil transportation, with oil production in southern Iraq dropping from about 4.3 million barrels per day to 1.3 million. Although the U.S. claims the rise in oil prices is temporary, if the war continues or if the U.S. doesn’t sell reserves, oil prices will likely stay high, which could accelerate U.S. inflation.”

“On Monday, Asian investors will react as CME opens, and by evening, U.S. investors will respond when U.S. markets open. I wonder if oil prices will spike to $100 after Monday’s open. If that happens, it wouldn’t bode well for the overall risk market.”

“Looking at Bitcoin data, liquidity on Sundays is usually the lowest of the week, and today is no exception. Fortunately, Trump didn’t cause any surprises this weekend, and despite ongoing war, the impact on risk markets seems limited—probably only visible through oil prices on Monday.”

“Low turnover naturally means less impact on market structure. The most discussed issue today among peers is the credit crisis. Although bad loans are increasing and institutions are shorting credit ETFs to record highs, the overall situation hasn’t yet collapsed. Firms like BlackRock and Blackstone haven’t faced repayment issues.”

“This is roughly how the first half of the year will go; even with three months left, the real trouble might only appear in the second half.”

Today’s Outlook

1. China’s Producer Price Index (PPI) for February (year-over-year), previous: -1.4%

2. China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February (year-over-year), previous: 0.2%