High-probability geopolitical account invests $62,800, betting that Russia and Ukraine will not cease fire before the end of June.

Gate News reports that on March 11, a account with an 83% win rate in the geopolitical market on Polymarket invested $62,800, betting that Russia and Ukraine will not cease fire before June 30. The opening average price for this bet was 83.6¢, and the current probability of this outcome is 81.5%.

Regarding the recent escalation of conflicts between the US, Israel, and Iran, Russia strongly condemned military strikes against Iran, stating that they significantly increase regional instability; Ukraine used this to emphasize the threat posed by the “Russia-Iran” military axis, calling on the West to avoid shifting focus or reducing military and air defense aid to Ukraine while managing Middle East tensions.

On the Russia-Ukraine battlefield, both sides continue to stalemate in the eastern front, with no substantial front line contraction. Regarding ceasefire negotiations, Russia insists that any ceasefire agreement must be based on Ukraine recognizing the current “territorial realities”; Ukraine firmly rejects freezing the conflict and emphasizes that a just peace must be based on the complete withdrawal of Russian forces.

Based on its trading history, this trader is not betting on whether the event will actually happen but may take profits or cut losses at certain points after opening a position. Account address: 0x21f7e463afb18b15df1cc94cd4a3bd27e7af8f97.