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Morgan Stanley Forecasts Japan's 10-Year Bond Yield to Fall to 2.1% by End of 2026

GateNews

2026-05-18 05:27:13

According to Morgan Stanley’s rate strategists on May 18, the Japanese 10-year government bond yield, currently at 2.74% per London Stock Exchange Group data, is expected to decline to 2.1% by the fourth quarter of 2026 as market focus shifts from inflation to economic growth. The strategists stated that current market pricing implies a more hawkish Bank of Japan policy path than their subjective probability-weighted forecast, suggesting substantial inflation risk premium priced in. “We expect this premium to fade by Q4 2026, pulling the 10-year yield down to 2.10%, before it gradually rises to 2.30% by Q4 2027 as oil prices stabilize and the BoJ resumes rate hikes.”

Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to Disclaimer.

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