As of May 15, 2026, Polymarket’s prediction market for “the CLARITY Act being formally signed into law in 2026” has held steady in the 69% range. Behind this figure is a legislative standoff that has stretched nearly a year—covering how digital assets are classified and categorized, the registration paths for exchanges, rules on stablecoin yield, and conflicts of interest between the president and the Crypto industry. Whether the bill can complete the full process in 2026—clearing the Senate with votes from the entire chamber, reconciling the two chambers, and reaching the president’s signature—is now becoming the most closely watched regulatory variable for the Crypto industry.
Why the SEC vs. CFTC jurisdiction fight needs a “clarity bill” to draw the boundaries?
For a long time, the core challenge in U.S. digital-asset regulation has been unclear jurisdiction. The SEC argues that most tokens are unregistered securities, while the CFTC says Bitcoin and Ethereum are commodities; courts have vacillated across different cases. The CLARITY Act seeks to draw this line with a federal law: digital commodities fall under CFTC oversight, digital securities fall under SEC oversight, and the enforcement-driven uncertainty is supposed to end. In practice, the bill establishes a complete ruleset for U.S. crypto spot markets—covering everything from initial token issuance to exchange registration through to brokers—bringing the intermediary roles that have long lived in regulatory gray areas into a federal framework.
What long-standing pain points in the Crypto industry does the CLARITY Act’s legislative framework solve?
The bill’s core mechanisms revolve around three dimensions:
- First, the classification mechanism. If the blockchain network behind a token achieves “true decentralization”—meaning no single company or team controls it—then the token is deemed a digital commodity; if the team still controls the network, it is treated as a security until the network matures enough to complete the transition.
- Second, compliance channels. The bill creates SEC exemption pathways for digital commodity issuance, with a financing cap of 75 million Dollar within 12 months, along with information disclosure requirements.
- Third, anti-money laundering and security. The bill requires digital-asset exchanges, brokers, and dealers to comply with the Bank Secrecy Act framework, including AML procedures, suspicious activity reports, and sanctions compliance.
In addition, the bill also includes forward-looking provisions such as research into network security standards and quantum-computing security standards.
How far does the Senate Banking Committee’s push mean the bill is from the finish line?
On May 14, 2026, the Senate Banking Committee passed the CLARITY bill by a vote of 15 to 9, sending it to the full Senate for consideration. The vote signals a bipartisan deal: all 13 Republican committee members voted in favor, while Democratic Senators Alsobrooks of Maryland and Warner of Virginia crossed party lines to support. But passage by the committee is only one checkpoint on the long road of legislation. The bill still needs 60 votes in the full Senate to overcome a filibuster; at the same time, it must be merged with the version passed by the Senate Agriculture Committee, then coordinated with the version passed by the House in July 2025 (294 to 134) through a two-chamber reconciliation process. Additionally, the White House has set July 4 as the target date for signature—an aggressive timeline within the federal legislative calendar.
How much of the controversy over stablecoin yield and ethics provisions has been resolved?
Two major obstacles during the bill’s progress were the stablecoin yield provisions and the officials’ ethics provisions. On stablecoin yield, the bill bans passive yield—similar to interest—when holding payment-type stablecoins, but allows rewards based on actual transactions or activities. A bipartisan compromise reached on May 1 by Senators Tillis and Alsobrooks broke the deadlock, prompting Coinbase CEO Armstrong to quickly signal on X that the bill is “ready to advance for review.”
However, the ethics provisions have not yet been finalized. A Democratic lawmakers’ amendment would ban the president and members of Congress from serving as issuers of crypto assets and limit officials from profiting from crypto assets; it was rejected 11 to 13 during committee consideration. After the vote, Alsobrooks said clearly that her stance in the full Senate vote will depend on whether three core issues—such as the ethics provisions—are properly resolved.
What role do the White House and the Trump administration play in pushing the bill?
The White House has provided clear political support for advancing the CLARITY bill. Treasury Secretary Bessent wrote in The Wall Street Journal urging the Senate to pass the bill as soon as possible, warning that “more and more crypto development activity is moving toward places where regulatory rules are clear.” In a private meeting in April, President Trump said the White House would not let bank lobbyists undermine legislation on the structure of the crypto market, and reiterated support for the digital asset industry. Under the White House’s July 4 schedule, a full Senate vote is expected in June, followed by the House completing final consideration before Independence Day. Overall, the administration’s regulatory orientation— including coordination at the policy level between SEC Chair Atkins and CFTC Chair Selig—provides bottom-up administrative support for the bill.
How should the 69% probability on Polymarket be interpreted?
Prediction market data is often seen as an expression of “the wisdom of the crowd,” but the strength of its signal requires careful interpretation. On the Polymarket platform, the CLARITY Act event contract is set to settle based on whether, by December 31, 2026, the law text is passed by both chambers and signed by the president. The contract conditions cover both chambers’ passage and the president’s signature. A 69% probability means traders believe passage is more likely than failure, but it also implies nearly a one-in-three chance of failure.
A joint study by London Business School and Yale University dissected Polymarket data, finding that among more than 2.43 million addresses, the proportion of “skillful winners” who can sustain profits and drive price discovery is under 4%, with about 97% of participants in loss or merely running alongside. The platform’s calibration precision (Brier score 0.0843) has surpassed the average of most polls, but the real prediction accuracy in the week before the event is around 66.7%, with errors systematically leaning optimistic. Therefore, the 69% probability should be read as the market’s综合 pricing of the prospects for the bill before it passes—not as a certain conclusion.
If the law passes or not, how will it reshape the regulatory picture for the Crypto market?
If the CLARITY bill is officially signed into law and takes effect in 2026, the U.S. crypto market’s regulatory landscape will shift from an “enforcement-driven” approach to “institutionalized regulation.” Exchanges will receive a clear federal registration path, primary-market fundraising activities (with a compliance issuance cap of 75 million Dollar per year) will enter a registration framework, and the broad categorization of digital assets will move toward predictable classification standards. In addition, the bill explicitly protects software developers and non-custodial peer-to-peer trading, but imposes strict AML and network security requirements on centralized intermediaries.
If the bill fails to pass on time, the situation could revert to legislative stagnation. Scott, chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, previously pointed out that if 2026 does not see progress, House control could change and the legislative window could be delayed by 2 to 6 years. Senator Moreno also warned that if no substantial progress is achieved by the end of May, market-structure legislation for Crypto could be put on hold for several years.
FAQ
Q1：What is the CLARITY Act?
The CLARITY Act, short for Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, is U.S. federal regulatory legislation proposed for the 2025 to 2026 period. It aims to clarify the jurisdiction SEC and CFTC hold in Crypto-asset regulation and to establish a compliance framework applicable to exchanges, brokers, and digital-asset issuers.
Q2：Where is the bill currently (as of May 15, 2026) in the process?
On May 14, 2026, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee passed the bill by a vote of 15 to 9, sending it to the full Senate for consideration. The White House’s target is to complete the signing by July 4.
Q3：What does the 69% probability on Polymarket represent?
Polymarket’s prediction market contract rules are: if the CLARITY Act is passed by both chambers of Congress and signed by the president into law by December 31, 2026, it is deemed “yes,” otherwise “no.” A 69% probability means market participants believe the bill is more likely to pass, but it is not a deterministic forecast.
Q4：What are the main remaining obstacles to advancing the bill?
In the remaining legislative steps, the bill needs 60 votes in the full Senate to overcome a filibuster, and it must be merged with the versions passed by the House. In addition, differences between Democrats and Republicans over officials’ ethics provisions have not been fully reconciled.
Q5：Where does the bill’s main impact on the Crypto market show up?
The bill will establish digital-asset classification standards (digital commodities under CFTC, digital securities under SEC), provide exchanges with a federal registration path, require intermediaries to comply with AML and sanctions compliance rules, and also protect the rights of software developers and users to self-custody assets.
