Polymarket pre-market prediction: WBC Australia will win. Taiwanese baseball fans learned a lesson in prediction markets.

The Chinese Taipei team lost 0-3 to Australia in their first game of the 2026 World Baseball Classic, and disappointed fans at Tokyo Dome shared their frustration on Polymarket. The settled prediction markets showed that Australia was widely expected to win with a 64% chance before the game, with a trading volume of $29,500. Meanwhile, traditional Taiwanese betting odds gave the Chinese Taipei team a 70% chance of victory.
(Background: WBC kicks off! The first on-chain predictions are out: Taiwan is favored with a 65% chance to beat Australia, and Polymarket trading volume exceeds one million dollars.)
(Additional context: Honestly, is Polymarket a good prediction tool?)

Table of Contents

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• Local markets favor Taiwan, Polymarket says Australia wins
• Historical win rate 70%, how could they lose?
• Polymarket was right, then what?

The game ended at 3 PM Tokyo time, and the Australian shares on Polymarket jumped from 64% directly to 100%.

About $11,000 was wagered on Taiwan winning, causing a sudden surge.

Taiwan lost 0-3 to Australia in this game, the first match of the 2026 WBC, and also the opening ceremony Taiwan hoped to avoid this year. Australian catcher Robbie Perkins hit a two-run home run in the fifth inning, Cleveland Guardians’ rookie Travis Bazzana added a solo shot in the seventh, and three left-handed pitchers combined for a shutout. Starting ace Xu Ruoxi pitched four innings, threw 53 pitches, but didn’t get a good result.

At the stadium, Taiwanese fans were silent. Investors on Polymarket were furious.

Local markets favor Taiwan, Polymarket says Australia wins

There was an unusual prediction disagreement before this game.

Traditional American sports betting gave Taiwan -240 odds, roughly a 70% chance of winning, clearly favoring Taiwan. Another prediction market, Kalshi, showed similar data, with Australia’s contract trading at only 32 cents, implying the market believed Australia had only a 32% chance of winning.

But Polymarket was different. The pre-game implied win probability for Taiwan on Polymarket was only 36%. For Australia, 64%.

In the end, Polymarket’s prediction proved correct.

Historical win rate 70%, how could they lose?

Taiwanese fans’ logic is quite reasonable, at least on the surface.

Taiwan’s historical head-to-head record against Australia shows about a 70% win rate. The team has top-tier starters and several overseas players shining in Japan and Korea, with a deep roster that isn’t inferior. Plus, WBC games tend to energize Taiwanese supporters.

But there’s a behavioral economics term called “Supporter Bias.”

Fans tend to systematically overestimate the chances of their supported team. It’s not because they’re not smart, but because they care. Caring causes the brain to automatically filter out signals unfavorable to their team and reinforce favorable ones. The 70% historical win rate is remembered, and Travis Bazzana, a 22-year-old slugger drafted by MLB’s Cleveland Guardians, is in his prime. Yet, this signal was overlooked by fans’ expectations.

Polymarket participants clearly didn’t overlook it. So when the 0-3 scoreline appeared, some Taiwanese fans were devastated.

Polymarket was right, then what?

If prediction markets are more accurate than traditional betting odds, should we take their win probability numbers more seriously?

From a pure investment perspective, yes. Polymarket’s accuracy this time, with its structure of bettors from around the world and diverse backgrounds—including traditional sports analysts, DFS players tracking player stats, and many baseball fans—turned money into a more rational number than traditional odds.

The potential of prediction markets in sports betting is definitely not limited to this. The amount of capital involved is also significant—what if a $200,000 market could grow to thousands of times larger?

Reminder: According to Taiwanese law, investing in prediction markets may constitute gambling. Polymarket also prohibits users in Taiwan from placing bets.