On May 23, 2026 (Eastern Time), U.S. President Trump posted on social media, saying that the United States and Iran have “basically worked out” a deal, with the final details to be announced soon, and that the Strait of Hormuz would be opened accordingly. On the same day, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio confirmed that the negotiations “are making progress.” Iran, meanwhile, said the two sides are in the final stage of finalizing a memorandum of understanding, but emphasized that it does not involve nuclear details at this stage, focusing only on ending the war.
Affected by this news, international crude oil in over-the-counter trading plunged sharply. In the early hours of May 24 (Beijing Time), Brent crude in over-the-counter trading fell by more than 11% at one point, and New York crude in over-the-counter trading dropped in tandem by more than 10%; as of the time of writing, both benchmark contracts were still down by 8% or more.
At the same time, the crypto market showed a completely different trend. As of May 24, 2026, Bitcoin was quoted at 76,700 USD on the Gate platform, up 1.6% over the past 24 hours.
Why did oil and Bitcoin move in opposite directions under the same geopolitical catalyst? What structural changes are occurring in the pricing logic of these two asset classes?
Why the “basically agreed” breakthrough signal from the U.S.-Iran talks was released at this moment
On May 23, a spokesperson for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Baghaei, said that after weeks of dialogue, “the views of both the U.S. and Iran are moving toward a more consistent direction,” and that both sides are in the final stage of finalizing a memorandum of understanding. Baghaei revealed that the memorandum contains 14 clauses, and that the two sides will discuss the relevant details and ultimately reach an agreement within 30 to 60 days.
Unlike previous U.S.-side unilateral releases of optimistic expectations, this time Iranian and Middle East media simultaneously conveyed positive signals. According to a draft of the agreement contents disclosed by foreign media, Iran would obtain economic benefits in exchange for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, including the U.S. lifting its maritime blockade, gradually easing sanctions against Iran, and especially unfreezing part of Iran’s assets. Iran’s nuclear program and the handling of enriched uranium would be discussed at a later step, and Iran’s ballistic missile program is also not on the negotiation agenda.
Notably, Iran provided a clarifying adjustment to the U.S. description. In an early-morning report on May 24, Iran’s Fars News Agency said that even if an agreement is reached, the Strait of Hormuz will continue to be “managed” by Iran. Although Iran agreed to allow the number of ships passing through the strait to return to pre-war levels, it does not mean the strait will return to a pre-war “free passage” status. This difference indicates that while a framework-level breakthrough has been achieved, there is still room for bargaining over specific execution terms.
How the reopening expectations for the Strait of Hormuz triggered a violent adjustment in oil prices
The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important oil shipping chokepoint and handles about one-fifth of global oil shipments. Since 2026, restrictions on the strait’s passage caused by geopolitical conflicts have been a key risk factor supporting crude oil prices at elevated levels.
Trump’s statement directly triggered the market to rapidly clear the geopolitical risk premium for this scenario. Unlike normal trading hours, this price movement occurred during weekend over-the-counter trading, when liquidity is relatively thin, which further amplified the drawdown—Brent crude in over-the-counter trading fell by more than 11% at one point, marking one of the largest single-day drops in recent history.
The deeper pricing logic is that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz step by step, the U.S. easing its maritime blockade, and allowing free commercial passage included in the draft agreement directly target the core pricing variables of the oil market. If the agreement is implemented and the strait returns to free commercial passage, the risk premium on daily crude oil shipments of about 17 million barrels would shrink significantly. In addition, the agreement’s mention of sanctions exemptions and asset unfreezing also suggests that Iran’s crude oil exports may gradually return to international markets. Even if the initial incremental supply is limited, the expectation of more supply at the psychological level was enough to trigger concentrated profit-taking by longs and entry by shorts.
Why Bitcoin posted an independent move as geopolitical risk eased
The oil crash stemming from the breakthrough progress in the U.S.-Iran agreement did not drag Bitcoin down in tandem; instead, Bitcoin rose in price. This phenomenon can be understood from three angles:
- First, Bitcoin and oil have fundamentally different asset attributes. Oil prices are heavily and directly affected by geopolitical supply risk, while Bitcoin does not have a comparable fundamental transmission path. During geopolitical conflict, the market did not assign Bitcoin a significant “conflict premium,” so there was also no corresponding downward pricing pressure when conflict risk receded.
- Second, a capital reallocation effect may have played a role. After the news was released, China’s oil market quickly plunged; some funds that moved out of the commodity market may have sought new directions for allocation. With crypto assets increasingly being included in the allocation scope of some institutional investors, Bitcoin could become one of the inflow destinations.
- Third, the unfreezing pathway for Iran’s roughly 25 billion USD frozen assets in the agreement sparked market discussion about where sovereign funds would flow. Although there is currently no public information indicating that these funds are directly related to crypto assets, the expectation of regionally looser liquidity brought by asset unfreezing, along with market discussion of fund channels after sanctions exemptions, provides crypto assets with incremental psychological support.
What core disagreements exist in the specific content of the memorandum of understanding and its execution pathway
Even though both sides released positive signals, there are still several key disagreements in the execution details:
First is the control of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump claimed the strait will be “opened accordingly,” but Iran clearly stated that even if an agreement is reached, the strait will continue to be “managed” by Iran, and that this does not mean a return to pre-war “free passage.”
Second is the handling timeline for the nuclear issue. According to Baghaei’s statements, at this stage the negotiations do not involve the nuclear issue and the micro-level details of canceling sanctions; nuclear topics fall under a category to be discussed in a subsequent phase. This means the most core disagreement—what happens to Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium and the long-term arrangements for its nuclear program—has not yet entered substantive negotiations.
Third is Israel’s position. According to media reports, on the night in question Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu urgently convened a meeting, concerned that the agreement terms would be “very unfavorable to Israel.” As a key stakeholder in the region, Israel’s stance will affect the geopolitical environment in which the agreement is executed.
These disagreements mean that while a framework-level breakthrough for the memorandum of understanding has basically been achieved, multiple uncertainties remain from the memorandum to a formal agreement and then to effective implementation.
What long-term impact pathways could a formal implementation of the U.S.-Iran deal have on the crypto market
If the memorandum of understanding is formally signed and enters the implementation phase, the crypto market will face three mid-term transmission paths:
- First, the oil price center of gravity moving downward may ease global inflation pressure. The disappearance of the Strait of Hormuz risk premium can help lower global energy costs, which in turn may affect the easing pace of major central banks’ monetary policy. If inflation pressure weakens, central banks such as the Federal Reserve gain more room to cut rates, and improved global liquidity would be a systemic positive for crypto assets.
- Second, the gradual unfreezing of Iranian assets may bring changes in regional capital flows. Markets with high activity in crypto such as Turkey and the UAE may generate new capital channels and trading demand in this process. In addition, the restoration of regional trade after sanctions exemptions could indirectly affect foreign-exchange flows and asset allocation behavior of relevant economies.
- Third, the reshaping of the geopolitical risk landscape may change the source of volatility for the crypto market. Over the past period, Middle East geopolitical conflicts have been one of the important variables affecting the pricing of global risk assets. If U.S.-Iran relations move into a phase of relative easing, oil market volatility may decline, thereby reducing cross-asset contagion effects triggered by sharp oil price swings; the sources of crypto market volatility would also correspondingly change.
What remaining uncertainties should the current market watch
Although the breakthrough progress on the agreement framework is basically clear, the market still faces several risks that cannot be ignored:
The nuclear negotiations have been postponed to 30 to 60 days, meaning the most core disagreements have not yet been resolved. During the implementation period of the current memorandum of understanding, if nuclear negotiations do not go smoothly, it could lead to the collapse of the entire framework of the agreement.
There is a gap between Iran’s insistence on “management rights” over the strait and the U.S.’s expectations of “free passage.” This disagreement may reappear after the agreement enters the implementation phase, triggering a new round of bargaining.
In addition, Polymarket’s prediction market shows that the probability of the “U.S. and Iran reaching a permanent peace agreement” is 40% before May 31 and 61% before June 30, indicating that the market still retains some caution about whether the agreement is workable and durable.
FAQ
Q: What is the most direct impact of the U.S.-Iran agreement being “basically worked out” on the crypto market?
The most directly related variable in the draft agreement is the unfreezing path of Iran’s roughly 25 billion USD in frozen assets. Although it is not currently specified to point directly to crypto assets, the regional liquidity changes caused by asset unfreezing, along with discussions about funding channels after sanctions exemptions, will transmit to trading sentiment in the crypto market.
Q: After the oil price crash, why didn’t Bitcoin follow the drop?
Bitcoin and oil have different pricing logic. Oil prices are heavily and directly affected by geopolitical supply risk, while Bitcoin was not given a significant “conflict premium” by the market in this conflict event. Therefore, when signals of conflict easing emerged, oil faced pressure from clearing the risk premium, while Bitcoin lacked corresponding downside driving forces.
Q: Why does the passage situation in the Strait of Hormuz affect crypto assets?
The passage situation in the Strait of Hormuz affects global oil prices and inflation expectations. Falling oil prices help ease inflation pressure and may create room for central banks to cut rates. Improved global liquidity is one of the key mid-term valuation support factors for crypto assets.
Q: What are the core disagreements in the memorandum of understanding?
There are three main areas: first, the gap between Iran’s insistence on “management rights” over the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S.’s expectations of “free passage”; second, the nuclear issue being pushed to later-stage negotiations, meaning the core disagreements have not yet been resolved; third, Israel’s concerns about the agreement terms may affect the stability of executing the agreement.
Q: Based on Gate quotes, what is Bitcoin’s current price?
As of May 24, 2026, Bitcoin is quoted at 76,700 USD on the Gate platform, up 1.6% over the past 24 hours. Against the backdrop of changing expectations for geopolitical risk, Bitcoin has shown price resilience that is completely different from oil.
