美国联邦储备委员会（Fed）即将迎来“华许时代”？据《彭博社》引述知情人士报道，川普政府正准备提名联邦储备委员会前理事华许（Kevin Warsh）担任下一任联邦储备委员会主席。虽然正式人选仍待川普今（30）晚亲自揭晓，但这则消息已在金融市场掀起惊涛骇浪。市场高度关注的是，华许鲜明的反量化宽松（QE）立场，可能将重塑自 2008 年金融危机以来、长期支撑股市与加密货币等风险资产的流动性环境。《彭博社》指出，华许周四曾造访白宫，这一动向立刻点燃市场神经。消息曝光后，美股走跌、美债殖利率攀升、美元持续走强，贵金属则全面承压。川普今（30）日稍早受访时大卖关子，表示 Fed 新主席人选“不会太令人意外”，且是“金融界

Polymarket's token sale prediction markets show that prediction accuracy is not reliable and actually exhibits systematic over-optimism. An in-depth analysis of 231 markets found that the prediction accuracy one week before closing was only 66.7%. High trading volume in the market is often a contrarian signal, indicating a greater risk of collapse. Investors should remain cautious of over-optimism to avoid significant losses.

_The U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee passed the crypto market structure bill in a 12–11 vote, advancing it despite Democratic opposition._ The U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee advanced the crypto market structure bill, marking the furthest progress such legislation has reached in the Senate.

As the crypto market attracts traditional financial liquidity, on-chain stocks and perpetual contracts are emerging as new trading tools. Tokenized stocks issued on the platform cater to traders who are not connected to the traditional financial system, driving concentrated trading volume. The on-chain technology stack is rapidly taking shape, and in the future, a global unified margin network will be formed. Time is of the essence; all parties need to seize the regulatory gap, quickly deploy strategies, and win the competition.

美国联邦储备委员会（Fed）即将迎来“华许时代”？据《彭博社》引述知情人士报道，川普政府正准备提名联邦储备委员会前理事华许（Kevin Warsh）担任下一任联邦储备委员会主席。虽然正式人选仍待川普今（30）晚亲自揭晓，但这则消息已在金融市场掀起惊涛骇浪。市场高度关注的是，华许鲜明的反量化宽松（QE）立场，可能将重塑自 2008 年金融危机以来、长期支撑股市与加密货币等风险资产的流动性环境。《彭博社》指出，华许周四曾造访白宫，这一动向立刻点燃市场神经。消息曝光后，美股走跌、美债殖利率攀升、美元持续走强，贵金属则全面承压。川普今（30）日稍早受访时大卖关子，表示 Fed 新主席人选“不会太令人意外”，且是“金融界

Trump announced the Federal Reserve Chair candidate on Friday, with Bloomberg reporting Kevin Wash as the frontrunner. Polymarket odds surged from 30% to 95%, while BlackRock Red fell to 3.4%. Wash is seen as hawkish and will push for tightening. In July, he stated that Bitcoin can provide market discipline to "help policymakers understand right from wrong." The market expects a hawkish appointment, strengthening the US dollar and causing US bond yields to rise.

Author: Zen, PANews After much back and forth, Trump's nominee for Federal Reserve Chair is expected to be officially announced in about a week. This dramatic "selection process" took a surprising turn as it reached the final stage. "The Federal Reserve must lower interest rates to 3% to be closer to equilibrium," said BlackRock Chief Fixed Income Investment Officer Rick Rieder in an interview with CNBC on January 13. "Only then can we consider the current situation." Rieder's remarks also officially signaled the start of a dark horse's charge. On that day, his probability of winning in prediction markets like Polymarket doubled from 3% to 6%; after Trump praised him highly at the Davos Forum, Rieder's win probability soared to 60%. As of January 29, Rieder and former

Fairshake PAC has raised $193 million, just 10 months before the US midterm elections. The White House convened banking and crypto executives on Monday to address the CLARITY Act stablecoin yield controversy. Standard Chartered warned that stablecoins could drain $500 billion in deposits from banks. Fairshake's support for candidates in 2024 has a win rate of over 80%.

The Private Hunter Program Phase 2 is back, featuring a free prediction mechanism and multiple ways to earn prediction opportunities, enhancing the activity's depth and challenge. By submitting predictions for the Top 3 in the event, users can earn points, which can be accumulated and used across periods. The event offers a rich reward system, including digital assets and physical prizes, but participation is limited to compliant VIP 5 and above users. Important rules emphasize identity verification and the compliance of participation behavior.

Early-stage accumulation patterns have been observed across multiple emerging tokens. Liquidity stability remains a stronger indicator than short-term price movement. Project behavior suggests preparation phases rather than confirmed expansion cycles. Market

Trader 7fFCzx’s $PENGUIN bet brings massive gains, but the portfolio remains down overall. Despite a 700% surge, the trader’s strategy shows a high-risk, low-win-rate profile. Psychological factors play a key role in whether $PENGUIN remains a lifeline or fades into the noise. Trader 7fF

Article by: Artemis Analytics Translation: Web3 Xiao Lv We are often fooled by the exaggerated trading volumes of stablecoins in article headlines, immersed in the excitement that they surpass V/M trading volumes, and dreaming of "canceling plans, preparing to win the championship" to replace SWIFT. When we compare stablecoin trading volumes to Visa/Mastercard, it’s like comparing the capital volume of securities settlement to Visa/Mastercard—completely incomparable. Although blockchain data shows that stablecoins have huge trading volumes, most of these are not real-world payments. Currently, the majority of stablecoin trading volume comes from: 1) funds balancing by exchanges and custodians; 2) trading, arbitrage, liquidity cycles; 3) smart contract mechanisms; 4) financial adjustments. Blockchain only shows the transfer of value, not the actual transfer of it.

The late-trading strategy is popular on Polymarket, but on-chain data shows that many traders do not profit and instead face losses. Research indicates that the time cost associated with dispute mechanisms is a key factor, especially in political and entertainment markets, where the actual expected value of the strategy may be negative. Therefore, the key to success lies in selecting indicators, avoiding high-risk assets, and achieving genuine profitability.

In the cryptocurrency space, a mysterious wallet operator used insider information to buy heavily during the initial launch of $ZREAL and then sold at a high price, making a profit of $627,000, raising concerns about insider trading. This "sniper" behavior turns retail investors into victims, revealing the potential risks of meme coin trading. Although the market has recently rebounded, security vulnerabilities still exist.

In brief Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong arrived at the World Economic Forum Tuesday to lobby world leaders on economic freedom, push for market structure legislation, and promote tokenization. Armstrong said Coinbase plans to meet with bank CEOs to "figure out how we can make this a

In the cryptocurrency space, a mysterious wallet operator used insider information to buy heavily during the initial launch of $ZREAL and then sold at a high price, making a profit of $627,000, raising concerns about insider trading. This "sniper" behavior turns retail investors into victims, revealing the potential risks of meme coin trading. Although the market has recently rebounded, security vulnerabilities still exist.

Written by: Yue Xiaoyu Prediction markets will definitely be the biggest trend and hot spot in 2026. It’s important to note that there are two major events in 2026: the World Cup and the US midterm elections. These two significant events will directly trigger a new wave of enthusiasm for prediction markets. The three hottest areas in prediction markets are sports, cryptocurrencies, and political events. Currently, in the overall prediction market landscape, Polymarket can be said to dominate and is the absolute leader. Next is the compliant platform Kalshi, which has already captured a large share of the US market. Apart from that, the position of Long Er (Dragon Two) has not yet been firmly established. Currently, there are three popular candidates in the Binance ecosystem, namely Opinion @opinionlabsxyz, PredictFun

White House Chief of Staff Hassett stated that Trump hopes he will remain, and the market interpreted this as a withdrawal from the Federal Reserve Chair race. The forecast market quickly adjusted, with Waller's probability soaring to 60%, Hassett dropping to 15-16%, and Waller around 13-14%. Waller led for the first time, but Trump's style is unpredictable. Powell's term ends on May 15.

People who buy crypto want coins that do something useful. But they also love to win. That’s the exact reason why the Milk Mocha Coin ($HUGS) stands apart from the crowd. The presale doesn’t just let you get in early on a growing coin ecosystem. It actually turns your purchase into a weekly

Most gaming rewards are designed to stick around. If you miss a draw, another one usually pops up. If you skip a bonus, a new version often arrives with different terms and bigger claims. The online casino giveaway currently active on Spartans works on a separate theory. It is built to have a

_South Korea legalizes tokenized securities, allowing blockchain-based stocks and bonds, with regulated trading set to begin in January 2027._ South Korea has taken a major regulatory step by approving laws that legalize tokenized securities. The decision places blockchain-based assets

Two traders on Polymarket lost nearly $10 million by making risky bets on sports markets with nearly even odds. Their aggressive strategies and poor win rates led to significant losses, highlighting the dangers of such betting without effective risk management.

A suspected insider's 'Maduro trade' and fresh Iran bets on Polymarket fuel fears of "information laundering" and prompt a bill to ban U.S. officials from trading. Summary An anonymous trader's big win on Venezuela's Maduro and high-stakes Iran bets spotlight how large positions on Polymarket c

Ripple secured preliminary approval for an Electronic Money Institution license from Luxembourg’s financial regulator. This marks a massive regulatory win that opens up the entire European Union market for Ripple Payments. XRP reacted fast, pumping as institutional interest across Europe

Cai Jiamin, at 12 years old, only had 20 HKD for lunch money and studied the Mark Six lottery, hoping to win 8 million. At 16, he was liquidated with leverage, losing 40,000 to zero; at 19, he experienced another loss of 150,000. Transitioned to quantitative trading, turning millions into hundreds of millions from 2021 to 2023 (20x). During the 2022 bear market, he made a 240% profit from short selling. Using CTA strategies, the drawdown reached 20%-30%.

In 2026, the account "택배기사" (Courier) topped the rankings in "League of Legends" with a 92.3% win rate, revealing the disruptive impact of AI in esports. This event sparked heated discussions about the legitimacy and future development of the esports industry. The full involvement of AI challenges the value and roles of human players, leading the industry to redefine players and technology. In the future, a coexistence ecosystem of humans and AI may emerge, prompting game design to focus more on human traits rather than pure competition.

On January 13, a miner solo mined 3.125 BTC, approximately 300,000 USD. In December alone, they mined 22 times, with an independent miner winning roughly once every 15.6 days. The probability of a 6 TH/s miner finding a block is 1/170 million, with an expected time of about 3,000 years. The Poisson process is memoryless, and thousands of miners worldwide keep the miracle going. CKPool charges a 2% fee, with 20,950 users contributing 188 PB of hash power.

Korean server (LCK) suddenly features a mysterious account with a 93% win rate, sparking a debate between AI and humans. The final clue points to a professional LCK player’s alt account, rather than Elon Musk's Grok real-world test. The Korean server (LCK) has long been regarded as the pinnacle of competitive "League of Legends (LoL)" skill. However, a mysterious account recently appeared, achieving an astonishing 56 ranked matches with a 93% win rate in just two days, temporarily ranking fourth on the Korean server. Some players speculate whether it is an AI team Elon Musk mentioned, or a professional player using an alternate account. LoL Korean server with a 93% win rate account, players exclaim "It doesn't seem human" ---------------------------- Bahamuta's League of Legends discussion points out that the account named "택배기사 (translated as 'Courier')" started participating in ranked matches from January 8, continuing for two consecutive days.

Cryptocurrency Exchange Ourbit Recently Launches a Series of User Incentive Activities Aimed at Increasing Trading Activity. (Background: Ourbit SuperCEX Launches Welcome Double Gifts: Win 2026 USDT Cash Red Envelopes, and the Highest 50% APR Gold Investment on the Entire Network) (Additional Background: Ourbit SuperCEX Airdrops Limited Edition Genesis NFTs to Users, Subscription Opens on December 18) _(This article is a promotional piece written and provided by Ourbit. It does not represent the stance of Dongqu, nor is it investment, purchase, or sale advice. Please see the disclaimer at the end of the article.)_ Ourbit SuperCEX Recently Launched a Series of Trading Incentives. Tap Trading Rewards Upgraded, Users Can Receive 3,000 Daily for Free

Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure As the Senate Banking Committee prepares for the markup of the anticipated crypto market structure bill, known as the CLARITY Act, an updated draft has been released following extensive

A mysterious account with a 93% win rate and 14 hours of continuous play appeared on the Korean "League of Legends" server. Global players are amazed and suspect that this is Elon Musk's Grok 5 AI conducting eSports practical tests. (Background: Musk announced that Grok 5 will challenge the strongest human team in LOL next year: if successful, it will prove a substantial breakthrough in AGI) (Additional background: How can an DAO with only 8.71 ETH help grassroots teams achieve their eSports dreams, from amateur to world third place?) Table of Contents Conspiracy Theory: Musk's Gaming AI Does Musk have this ability? 1. xAI's "StarCraft genes" 2. Musk's "Gaming AI obsession" 3. Korean server is the best training choice The natural opposition: this is human

In brief The updated crypto market structure bill draft will prohibit digital asset providers from paying interest solely for holding payment stablecoins, while preserving exceptions for transaction-based rewards. The banking industry lobbied for the provision, citing a Treasury report

A mysterious account named "택배기사" appeared in Hanbok, playing 56 ranked matches in just two days with a 93% win rate, and temporarily ranking in the top four, sparking player speculation whether it is Elon Musk's AI team or a professional player's alt account. Community discussions were divided, but it was ultimately guessed that the account might belong to LCK substitute player Roamer's alt, and there are no more game records. The article emphasizes that AI entering the esports field will change the boundaries between humans and machines.

Alphabet closed at $332.73 on Monday, reaching a new all-time high and officially joining the "$4 trillion club," becoming one of the few tech giants to surpass this market capitalization threshold after Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft. This rally was mainly driven by market high regard for its artificial intelligence (AI) strategy, especially with recent reports that the company has reached a multi-year key partnership agreement with Apple. This agreement will support iPhone ecosystem with Google's AI technology, including enhancing Siri voice assistant capabilities, seen as a win-win strategic move. Alphabet continued its strong momentum from 2025, when it gained over 65% for the year, and has risen nearly 5% so far this year, indicating investor confidence in its leadership position in generative AI.

The article discusses the transformation of the global macro market in 2026. Facing midterm election pressures, the Trump administration plans to lower oil prices and implement fiscal stimulus to win votes. Analysis indicates that the end of the international order will reshape asset allocation, with gold and defense sectors benefiting, while emerging market stocks face risks. The stock market and AI bubbles are the main sources of risk, potentially threatening Trump's re-election.

Last year, artificial intelligence became a global focus, also causing dramatic changes in the tech industry's wealth landscape. Some skeptics, including Michael Burry, who is famous for the movie "The Big Short," have warned that the tech industry is falling into an AI bubble. He believes that these tech companies are over-investing in chips, data centers, and other infrastructure to win in the AI race, which could eventually lead to a bubble burst. However, in stark contrast to these concerns, the wealth of tech giants has not shrunk; instead, it continues to double, and AI and related tech stocks are soaring. Tech billionaires are accumulating wealth to new heights thanks to the AI boom According to the latest data, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, along with Google co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin, are approaching the $300 billion mark in personal wealth. Over the past few years, they have each been worth around $200 billion.

In brief Andreessen Horowitz raised more than $15 billion across five funds to propel future technologies in America. The firm raised more than 18% of all venture capital funds in the country last year, it said. Also a leading crypto VC, the firm has raised more than $7 billion to

In brief Andreessen Horowitz raised more than $15 billion across five funds to propel future technologies in America. The firm raised more than 18% of all venture capital funds in the country last year, it said. Also a leading crypto VC, the firm has raised more than $7 billion to

In brief Andreessen Horowitz raised more than $15 billion across five funds to propel future technologies in America. The firm raised more than 18% of all venture capital funds in the country last year, it said. Also a leading crypto VC, the firm has raised more than $7 billion to

Key Takeaways: Tether has collaborated with the United Nations office on drugs and crime (UNODC) in fighting fraud and cybercrime of digital assets in the African continent. The partnership helps the UNODC Strategic Vision of Africa 2030, based on cybersecurity education among the young

U.S. President Trump recently announced that he will take immediate executive action and push for legislation to ban large institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes, aiming to make way for ordinary American families and alleviate the increasingly severe housing affordability crisis. The statement triggered market volatility, with shares of major home rental companies falling sharply. However, data shows that institutional investors hold only about 1% of the total single-family home stock nationwide, and their share in local markets is also limited. Analysts believe that this move, aimed at catering to populist sentiment, although politically considered, is unlikely to fundamentally solve the housing crisis driven by structural contradictions such as severe supply shortages and high construction costs. If implemented, the policy could reshape the residential investment landscape, but its actual effectiveness and potential side effects have sparked widespread controversy.

A commentator argues that XRP's long-term value lies in its utility for cross-border payments rather than media hype. Despite recent bullish trends driven by headlines, sustained growth will depend on investors recognizing XRP's fundamental advantages over traditional methods.

Trump Warns of Impeachment if Republicans Fail to Win Midterms In a recent speech to House Republicans, former President Donald Trump issued a stark warning: failure to secure midterm election victories could lead to his impeachment. Trump emphasized the importance of the upcoming elections,

Timing defines every major crypto win, and early access to a top crypto narrative often separates average returns from true 100x outcomes. With meme coins, gaming utility, and Layer-2 infrastructure converging, DOGEBALL, Tron, and Stellar are drawing attention as the top crypto names to watch t

Author: Haseeb ＞|＜, Dragonfly Partner Translation: Deep Tide TechFlow LPs sometimes ask me who I consider the most outstanding venture capitalists in the crypto space. I've thought about this a lot. Since I started engaging in crypto venture investing, I've always aspired to be the best. I am passionate about competition, and investing is the purest form of competition. Only one person can win a deal, only one can pick the winner of this cycle. But when you honestly examine and carefully calculate, you'll find that three people have already proven themselves as the "Greatest of All Time" (GOAT) in crypto VC. This might sound a bit like bragging (it is), and it may not be very appealing to those who are not in crypto VC. But I am a crypto VC. This article is dedicated to those of us who have made this our lifelong career.

Trump Warns of Impeachment if Republicans Fail to Win Midterms In a recent speech to House Republicans, former President Donald Trump issued a stark warning: failure to secure midterm election victories could lead to his impeachment. Trump emphasized the importance of the upcoming elections,

Author: Frank, PANews Recently, the popularity of prediction markets has continued to rise, especially with smart money’s arbitrage strategies being regarded as the gold standard. Many have started to imitate and experiment, as if a new gold rush is beginning. But behind the hype, how effective are these seemingly clever and reasonable strategies? How exactly are they executed? PANews conducted an in-depth analysis of 27,000 trades made by the top ten profit-generating whales on Polymarket in December, exploring the true nature of their profits. After analysis, PANews found that although many of these "smart money" operations involved implementing hedging arbitrage strategies, there is a significant difference between this hedging and the simple hedging described on social media. The actual strategies are much more complex, involving more than just straightforward "yes" or "no" combinations, but rather making full use of rules like "over/under" and "win/lose" in sports betting.

_New Polymarket account bets $37K on China invading Taiwan by 2026, with a potential $289K payout if correct._ A new Polymarket account, Caspersmc, has placed a $37,000 bet that China will invade Taiwan by 2026. If the bet is successful, the trader stands to win $289,000. The large wager has d

Author: Frank, PANews Recently, the popularity of prediction markets has continued to rise, especially with smart money's arbitrage strategies being regarded as the gold standard. Many have started to imitate and experiment, as if a new wave of gold rush has begun. But behind the hype, how effective are these seemingly clever and reasonable strategies? How exactly are they executed? PANews conducted an in-depth analysis of 27,000 transactions made by the top ten profit-generating whales on Polymarket in December, exploring the true nature of their profits. After analysis, PANews found that although many of these "smart money" operations involved hedging arbitrage strategies, this hedging is significantly different from the simple hedging described on social media. The actual strategies are more complex, far from just a simple "yes" or "no" combination, but instead make full use of rules like "over/under" and "win/lose" in sports betting.

In-depth analysis of Polymarket: 27,000 trades by the top ten profit whales in December reveal the truth behind "smart money": the extremely high win rate is masked by a large number of open "zombie orders," with actual win rates only slightly above random; hedging arbitrage is far more complex than imagined, and blind imitation can lead to losses. (Background summary: Heaven, Earth, Humanity—why did the prediction market only explode after nearly 40 years?) (Additional background: 26 predictions about the development of prediction markets in 2026) Table of Contents 1. SeriouslySirius: 73% win rate masked by "zombie orders," and the complex quantitative hedging network 2. DrPufferfish: Turning small probabilities into large ones, the ultimate "profit-loss ratio" management art 3. gmanas: High-frequency automated assembly line operations 4. Hunter sim