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[Old T's Big Mouth Brings a Rebound? But the Downtrend Still Dominates!]
Big Pancake's weekly chart continues to close in the red, with two bullish candles already erasing the previous large bullish candle, indicating a clear bearish trend.
On the daily chart, it has closed below the lower edge of the descending flag pattern for three consecutive days, confirming a breakdown. We previously predicted that after this breakdown, there wouldn't be an immediate waterfall decline; instead, there would be oscillation and a rebound to the lower edge of the pattern, which has been fully validated in recent days. The rebound has already completed, and the daily price has not yet moved back into the channel!
The only variable remains Old T's overly confident mouth—saying whatever he wants. Driven by news, Big Pancake has recently rallied back into the channel, but the overall trend remains unchanged. In my personal view, the daily close still struggles to stay above the channel, or it may be that after three days of upward pinning, the price continues to decline!
The first resistance level above is 68,600, with a major resistance at 72,000.
Let's also look at Big Pancake CME 4-hour chart. There is a gap present, roughly between 71,650 and 73,610 (CME values differ from exchange prices). The highest rebound on the 23rd was 71,860. The price entered this gap but did not fill it, indicating clear resistance. This rebound is unlikely to be much different; stopping at this gap is a high-probability event!
Currently, do not blindly chase the rally. Focus on shorting at high levels or observing. The immediate support below remains at 64,000, and the major support is still waiting for a break below 60,000, with an entry opportunity around 58,000 after that!
#特朗普再挺比特币 $BTC #ETH走势分析 $ETH
Bitcoin has finally ended its 49-day flag pattern consolidation. When it touched the lower boundary of the flag for the third time, there was no effective resistance. After a brief oscillation, it broke downward, forming a small waterfall decline.
Let's review this market movement, especially the latter half. Each rebound failed to reach important resistance levels, making the market look quite weak. However, influenced by the Iran conflict, the short-term trend is a mix of bulls and bears, changing rapidly, which makes trading quite challenging.
We previously mentioned that a descending flag pattern is meant to be broken downward. The timing is just a matter of when. The overall trend remains bearish, and the current movement aligns with our expectations.
Since the downward flag has been broken, it essentially confirms that this rebound has ended, and the market is returning to a downtrend.
On the daily chart, the MACD has formed a second death cross near the zero line, starting to move below zero into the bearish zone. The pattern looks weak, and the downward momentum is quite strong.
However, I believe it won't continue to fall sharply right away. It will likely oscillate first before heading lower.
There are two reasons: First, Bitcoin is approaching support levels around 64,000 to 65,000, which suggests a rebound is needed. Second, after breaking the descending flag, there is also a reason for a retest to confirm the validity of the breakdown.
But this rebound's initial height is limited, with the first resistance around 67,200. If it can break above and re-enter the flag pattern, there’s a chance to reach 72,000.
Personally, I remain cautious. The probability of encountering resistance at 67,200 and continuing downward is quite high. Be prepared mentally!
Looking further down, the only visible support is the previous low around 60,000. The expectation is that it will break through and dip to the 58,000–59,000 range before rebounding. Once it reaches this zone, the rebound strength should increase significantly. We will analyze specific levels when the price gets there!
Finally, let's talk about Ethereum. ETH's situation is similar to Bitcoin's, but since the last rebound was very strong, its pattern isn't as weak as Bitcoin's. The major support is around the trend line at 1,900, with potential for no new lows. The rebound is also expected to be stronger than Bitcoin's, with resistance around 2,100.
Trading strategy: The 58,000 level isn't far away—just a few points away. For those holding deep positions, be prepared to hold through. For those looking to add or enter the market, 58,000 is a good entry point for a strong buy.