The Oscars are about to begin, and betting on various awards on Polymarket has already started. The betting funds for Best Picture have exceeded $15 million.

Kalshi Traders Turn Bearish on Ethereum February Outlook

Kalshi traders anticipate a decline in Ethereum prices, predicting a drop to $1,830 by the end of February. This reflects market sentiment, revealing trader psychology amid macro uncertainty. Opinions in the crypto community vary, with some viewing low prices as buying opportunities. Prediction markets like Kalshi gauge expectations rather than set targets.

The true cost of being one minute late in the prediction market — A study on the golden entry windows for different events

This article discusses the opportunity cost investors miss due to cautious waiting for confirmation information in prediction markets, referred to as the "confirmation tax." By analyzing on-chain data from various news events, the conclusion is drawn that during sudden events, the most information advantage can be gained within the first 10 minutes, and the remaining profit potential decreases exponentially with time delay. The author recommends traders quickly adjust their strategies based on the type of event to increase the likelihood of capturing excess returns.

Polymarket launches 5-minute Bitcoin prediction market

Polymarket has launched a 5-minute Bitcoin price prediction market, allowing users to bet on BTC price increases or decreases. This high-frequency model offers a fast-paced experience, appealing to active traders and potentially shaping the future of DeFi prediction platforms.

a16z Advisor: Predicts that only 1.3% of political contracts in the market have liquidity, recommends introducing AI agents to provide liquidity

Stanford professor Andy Hall stated that research found insufficient liquidity in political contract markets, with only 1.3% of contracts being active. He proposed four improvement suggestions, including collaborating with independent institutions, paying market maker fees, introducing AI agent trading, and establishing unified rules to enhance market vitality and attract traders.

Israel Indicts Duo for Insider Trading on Polymarket With Classified Military Information

Two individuals in Israel were indicted for allegedly using classified military information to profit from bets on the prediction market Polymarket, raising concerns about insider trading and security risks.

Treat Polymarket as an ATM! He used 48 ultra-short-term predictions to make a quick $80,000 in one day

Polymarket's mysterious trader Bidou28old made $80,000 in profit within less than a day across 48 ultra-short-term predictions, demonstrating their quantitative trading and arbitrage skills. Although there were multiple losses, the trader achieved profitability by focusing on low-probability events and rigorous position management, quickly switching high-frequency positions in a short period. They especially favor mainstream cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH.