XRP Price Prediction: Key On-Chain Signal Flashes Buy as Ripple CEO Joins CFTC Advisory Committee

XRP is showing signs of a potential trend reversal, holding above $1.35 after hitting a yearly low of $1.12 earlier this month. A rare on-chain signal—the MVRV-Z Score—has remained negative for nearly two weeks, a pattern that historically preceded XRP’s 546% rally from $0.45 to $2.91 in late 2024.

However, rising exchange reserves near 13 billion XRP suggest selling pressure persists, creating a classic clash between bottoming signals and supply-side headwinds. Adding to the bullish narrative, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has been appointed to the CFTC’s newly expanded Innovation Advisory Committee, positioning the company at the forefront of U.S. crypto policy discussions.

XRP Price Action: Bulls Defend $1.35 Amid Mixed Market Signals

If you’ve been watching XRP’s price action since its July 2025 all-time high of $3.66, you know it’s been a brutal slide. The token touched a yearly low of $1.12 on February 6 amid extremely oversold conditions, before rebounding sharply to $1.54 the same day . As of February 14, XRP is trading near $1.37, attempting to reclaim the pivotal $1.40 level as support.

The past week has been a battle.** **XRP failed to hold above $1.40 on Thursday, reflecting risk-off sentiment across the crypto market as retail and institutional sentiment weakened . Yet the fact that bulls are defending the $1.35 area suggests that dip buyers are stepping in, encouraged by a rare on-chain development.

The MVRV-Z Score Flashes “Buy”: What History Tells Us

One of the most compelling signals comes from the MVRV-Z Score, a metric that helps investors determine whether an asset is undervalued or overvalued relative to its realized capitalization . When this score turns negative, it historically indicates that the market price is below the average cost basis of all holders—often a precursor to sustained recoveries.

Historical Precedent: The 2024 Rally

XRP’s MVRV-Z Score dropped into negative territory in early February and has remained there for nearly two weeks . The last time this happened was in July 2024, when the score hit -0.13. What followed was a 546% surge from $0.45 to $2.91 by December of that year .

Currently, the MVRV-Z Score sits at approximately -0.13 again—the same level that preceded the 2024 breakout . While past performance never guarantees future results, the symmetry is hard to ignore.

Analyst Zach Rector recently drew parallels between XRP’s current structure and silver’s historic bull run, noting that both assets experienced deep corrections followed by extended consolidation before explosive moves . If XRP follows a similar pattern, a 500-600% rally from the $1.00 zone would target the $5-$7 range—consistent with Rector’s 5-to-10-year outlook .

The Bearish Counterargument: Exchange Reserves Keep Rising

Despite the bullish on-chain signal, there’s a cloud on the horizon: XRP exchange reserves continue to climb.

According to Glassnode data, the cumulative balance of XRP on exchanges increased to approximately 12.99 billion XRP on February 13, following a brief dip to 12.93 billion earlier in the month . When investors move tokens to exchanges, it typically signals an intention to sell—especially during periods of market volatility.

This dynamic creates a tug-of-war between two signals:

• Bullish signal: Negative MVRV-Z Score suggests undervaluation and historical buying opportunities
• Bearish signal: Rising exchange reserves increase the supply available for sale, potentially capping upside

For a sustained recovery to take hold, XRP needs to see exchange reserves stabilize or decline. If reserves continue climbing, any rally may face persistent overhead supply.

Ripple’s Strategic Positioning: $4 Billion in Acquisitions and a “North Star” Vision

While short-term price action captures attention, Ripple the company is playing a longer game. CEO Brad Garlinghouse recently told an XRP Community Day event that 2025 was a landmark year for acquisitions, with the company spending approximately $4 billion on mergers and acquisitions .

The Acquisition Strategy

Major deals included:

• Hidden Road for $1.25 billion, now rebranded as Ripple Prime—a prime brokerage serving over 300 institutional customers that clears $3 trillion annually** **
• GTreasury for $1 billion, now Ripple Treasury, providing risk management, FX tools, and compliance frameworks** **

Garlinghouse indicated that 2026 will focus on integration rather than new deals, though he didn’t rule out additional acquisitions in the second half of the year .

“XRP Is the North Star”

Perhaps most importantly for XRP holders, Garlinghouse reaffirmed that all of Ripple’s products—Ripple Payments, Ripple Prime, Ripple Treasury, custody services, and the RLUSD stablecoin—are designed to drive utility, trust, velocity, and liquidity around XRP and the XRP Ledger .

“XRP is the North Star for Ripple. It’s our purpose,” Garlinghouse stated . This alignment between corporate strategy and token utility is critical: if Ripple’s products succeed, XRP should theoretically benefit.

CFTC Appointment: Garlinghouse Joins Crypto’s Regulatory Power Players

On February 13, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced the final membership of its newly established Innovation Advisory Committee . The 35-member committee includes some of the most influential names in both crypto and traditional finance, and Brad Garlinghouse is on the list.

Who’s on the Committee

The committee represents a who’s who of financial innovation :

Crypto Leaders:

• Brian Armstrong (Coinbase CEO)
• Brad Garlinghouse (Ripple CEO)
• Hayden Adams (Uniswap Labs CEO)
• Vlad Tenev (Robinhood CEO)
• Tyler Winklevoss (Gemini CEO)
• Kris Marszalek (Crypto.com CEO)
• Anatoly Yakovenko (Solana Labs CEO)
• Sergey Nazarov (Chainlink Labs CEO)
• Chris Dixon (a16z Crypto)

Traditional Finance Titans:

• Adena Friedman (Nasdaq Chair & CEO)
• Terry Duffy (CME Group Chair & CEO)
• Craig Donohue (Cboe Global Markets CEO)
• Jeff Sprecher (Intercontinental Exchange CEO)
• Walt Lukken (FIA CEO)

Prediction Market Leaders:

• Shayne Coplan (Polymarket CEO)
• Tarek Mansour (Kalshi CEO)

What This Means for XRP and Crypto Regulation

CFTC Chairman Mike Selig, who took the helm in early 2026, has made clear that the agency will play a leading role in crypto oversight . The Innovation Advisory Committee is tasked with “modernizing rules and regulations for the innovations of today and tomorrow” and developing “clear rules of the road for the Golden Age of American Financial Markets” .

For Ripple and XRP, Garlinghouse’s seat at the table is significant. The CFTC is widely expected to have jurisdiction over digital commodities—a classification that many in the industry believe should apply to XRP following the partial resolution of Ripple’s SEC case. Having direct input into regulatory discussions could help shape an environment where XRP thrives.

Notably, the market reaction has been muted so far—XRP’s price didn’t get an immediate boost from the news . But regulatory positioning is a long-term game, and this appointment enhances Ripple’s credibility in Washington.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels Every XRP Trader Should Watch

The Bearish Setup

XRP currently trades at $1.37, well below its falling moving averages :

• 50-day EMA: $1.76 (downward slope)
• 100-day EMA: $1.97 (downward slope)
• 200-day EMA: $2.16 (downward slope)

All three moving averages sloping downward reinforces the bearish setup. The descending trend line from the $3.66 all-time high continues to limit rebounds, with major resistance near $2.13 .

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 32, approaching oversold territory but not quite there . Readings below 30 would signal extreme bearishness; readings above 30 with upward momentum could indicate a trend change.

The Bullish Hints

Despite the bearish structure, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows encouraging signs. While still below the signal line and under the zero mark, the red histogram bars have been contracting, suggesting downside momentum is fading . If the MACD crosses above its signal line—which appears imminent—traders may increase risk exposure.

Critical Levels to Watch

Immediate resistance: $1.40-$1.43 (this week’s open)** **

Major resistance: $1.54 (February 6 high), $1.76 (50-day EMA), $2.13 (descending trend line)

Immediate support: $1.35 (current), $1.30 (psychological)

Critical support: $1.25 (October 2025 low), $1.12 (February 2026 low), $1.00 (psychological)

A decisive break above $1.40 could ease bearish momentum and open the door to an extended recovery. However, failure to hold $1.30 could trigger selling toward the $1.25 area or lower .

XRP Price Forecast: What Analysts Are Saying

Short-Term Outlook (Q1-Q2 2026)

Most analysts see XRP in a bottoming process rather than an immediate recovery. The negative MVRV-Z Score suggests that from a valuation perspective, XRP is cheap relative to its historical cost basis . However, rising exchange reserves indicate that sellers haven’t finished distributing.

The most likely scenario is continued consolidation between $1.25 and $1.54, with a breakout determining the next directional move.

Medium-Term Outlook (2026-2027)

Standard Chartered has offered one of the most bullish institutional forecasts, predicting XRP could reach $8 in 2026 and $12.50 by the end of 2028 . This projection assumes:

• XRP spot ETFs attract sustained inflows
• Institutional adoption accelerates
• XRP becomes integral to global payment networks

The analyst community remains divided. Some see XRP repeating its 2024 pattern with a delayed but powerful rally once exchange reserves stabilize. Others worry that stablecoins could ultimately replace XRP’s cross-border payment use case, potentially pushing prices below $1 .

Long-Term Vision

Rector’s analysis, comparing XRP’s structure to silver’s historic bull run, suggests that if the token follows similar symmetry, a 5-10 year target of $5-$10 is plausible . This aligns with Garlinghouse’s framing of XRP as the “North Star”—implying that Ripple’s multi-year strategy is designed to maximize XRP’s utility and value over time.

The Bottom Line: Patience Required

XRP presents a classic clash of signals in February 2026:

• On-chain valuation says “buy”: The MVRV-Z Score at -0.13 matches levels that preceded a 546% rally
• Exchange flows say “wait”: Rising reserves suggest supply overhang
• Regulatory positioning says “accumulate”: Garlinghouse’s CFTC appointment puts Ripple at the policy table
• Technical structure says “cautious”: XRP remains in a downtrend below all major moving averages

For traders, the immediate focus should be on the $1.40 level. A clean break above with volume could signal that buyers are regaining control. Failure to hold $1.30 would likely extend the correction toward $1.25 or lower.

For longer-term investors, the MVRV-Z Score has historically been a reliable guide to buying opportunities. Combined with Ripple’s aggressive acquisition strategy, $4 billion in deals, and now direct regulatory access through the CFTC, the foundation for future growth continues to build.

As one analyst put it: “The last time exchange reserves climbed this dramatically, XRP ripped 300% in 90 days. Current patterns suggest we might be seeing the same playbook unfold—just with better fundamentals and cleaner charts” .

Whether that playbook repeats depends on whether the rising exchange reserves represent smart money accumulation or distribution. February’s price action—and whether bulls can hold $1.35—will offer important clues.