Coinbase Stock Surges 18% and Strategy Jumps 10% as Bitcoin Rebound Ignites Crypto Rally

Crypto-linked stocks led the market on Friday as Coinbase (COIN) surged 18% and Strategy (MSTR) jumped 10%, fueled by a sharp rebound in Bitcoin and renewed investor appetite for digital asset exposure.

The rally came despite Coinbase reporting a $666.7 million Q4 loss and multiple Wall Street firms cutting price targets, suggesting traders are looking past near-term earnings weakness toward long-term growth in subscription revenue, stablecoin income, and the potential for regulatory clarity. With Bitcoin recovering from recent lows near $70,000, crypto stocks are once again demonstrating their high-beta nature—amplifying both the downside during selloffs and the upside during recoveries.

The Great Rebound: Why Crypto Stocks Outperformed on Friday

If you’ve been watching the crypto stock space over the past few months, you know it’s been a brutal stretch. Coinbase shares had fallen roughly 40% year-to-date heading into this week, tracking Bitcoin’s 30% decline over the past month and even steeper losses in altcoins. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) had suffered similar damage, with its Bitcoin-heavy balance sheet amplifying the pain.

Then came Friday.

Coinbase surged more than 18%, finishing well ahead of most traditional technology stocks as traders “bought the dip” in crypto exposure. Strategy followed with a 10% gain, while Circle (CRCL) climbed roughly 7% and Galaxy Digital (GLXY) rose 6.5%.

The moves weren’t happening in a vacuum. Bitcoin rebounded from recent lows near $70,000 to trade above $76,000, recovering some of the ground lost during the October-to-February selloff that saw the largest cryptocurrency drop nearly 50% from all-time highs. Ethereum followed suit, climbing back toward $2,600.

But here’s what makes Friday’s rally noteworthy: it happened despite terrible earnings news.

Coinbase’s Q4 Report: The Good, The Bad, and The Subscription Revenue

Coinbase reported its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings this week, and by any conventional measure, they were ugly. The company posted a net loss of $666.7 million, its first quarterly loss in several periods, driven by lower trading revenue as crypto volumes sagged.

Transaction revenue, Coinbase’s traditional bread and butter, came in at $600 million—down from $1.2 billion in the previous quarter and well below analyst expectations of $689.6 million. Retail trading volumes slumped to $28 billion from $53 billion in Q3, while institutional volumes fell to $105 billion from $158 billion.

The take rate—the percentage of transaction volume Coinbase keeps as revenue—also declined, pressured by a shift toward lower-fee Advanced trading and Coinbase One subscriptions.

Analysts Respond With Price Target Cuts

Wall Street reacted predictably. JPMorgan maintained its overweight rating but cut its price target to $252 from $290, citing weak crypto prices and trading activity weighing on volumes and fees. Analyst Kenneth Worthington noted that higher operating expenses, up 22% year-over-year, also pressured results.

Canaccord maintained its buy rating but slashed its price target to $300 from $400 after lowering near-term estimates. Monness Crespi & Hardt downgraded COIN from buy to neutral, setting a $120 price target and warning of downside risk tied to softer market conditions.

The stock closed Thursday at $141.09, well below all those reduced targets.

The Subscription Revenue Bright Spot

Yet within those ugly numbers, there was a story that investors apparently found compelling: subscription and services revenue.

Coinbase’s subscription business—including stablecoin revenue, custody fees, and blockchain rewards—showed strength that helped cushion sentiment. Stablecoin revenue, in particular, has become an increasingly important earnings driver, with the company reporting $247 million in Q4 revenue from stablecoins alone, plus another $154.8 million from blockchain rewards.

This diversification matters. Trading volume is volatile, subject to crypto market cycles and retail engagement. Subscription revenue is recurring, predictable, and growing. Investors who look past the headline loss see a company building multiple revenue streams that can sustain it through bear markets.

The Armstrong Sale

The rally also came despite news that CEO Brian Armstrong sold more than 1.5 million shares worth about $545 million, which the company characterized as a diversification move. While insider sales often spook investors, the market absorbed this news and continued buying—a sign of conviction in the underlying story.

Strategy’s MSTR: Betting Big on Bitcoin

If Coinbase’s story is about exchange revenue diversification, Strategy’s story is simpler: it’s a Bitcoin proxy with a software company attached.

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) posted a multi-billion dollar quarterly loss, largely tied to mark-to-market declines on its Bitcoin holdings. Under accounting rules, when Bitcoin prices fall, companies must recognize impairment losses, even if they haven’t sold. With Bitcoin down sharply from Q3 peaks, the impact was substantial.

Yet Strategy shares rose 10% on Friday anyway.

The Accumulation Continues

The company disclosed another significant Bitcoin purchase this week, adding more than 1,100 BTC for approximately $90 million at an average price near the high-$70,000 range. This brings Strategy’s total holdings to over 226,000 BTC, making it the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin by a wide margin.

Executive Chairman Michael Saylor continues to publicly defend the strategy, reiterating that the company does not intend to sell Bitcoin through downturns. Saylor argues that Strategy is positioned to withstand extended volatility in Bitcoin’s price, and that the long-term trend remains upward.

For investors, MSTR functions as a leveraged play on Bitcoin. When Bitcoin rises, MSTR tends to rise more. When Bitcoin falls, MSTR falls harder. Friday’s 10% gain on a 6% Bitcoin bounce illustrates this dynamic perfectly.

The Balance Sheet Reality

The risks are equally clear. With Bitcoin still well below its all-time highs, Strategy’s balance sheet shows billions in accumulated impairment losses. The company has funded its Bitcoin purchases through a combination of equity offerings and debt, creating financial leverage that amplifies both gains and losses.

So far, the strategy has worked over the long term—Bitcoin is up substantially since Saylor began buying. But the volatility is extreme, and each bear market tests investor patience.

Why Investors Are Buying Crypto Stocks Despite Bad Earnings

The divergence between earnings headlines and stock performance raises an obvious question: what are investors seeing that analysts aren’t?

The “Buy the Dip” Mentality

Part of the answer is simple trading behavior. Crypto stocks have been hammered in 2026, with Coinbase down roughly 40% year-to-date and Strategy down a similar amount. When stocks fall that far, fast, value investors start looking for entry points.

Traders appear to have capitalized on what they view as a “buy the dip” opportunity, even as the companies struggle with the broader crypto market’s volatility. The reasoning: if you believe in crypto long-term, these stocks are cheap relative to where they’ll trade in the next bull market.

The Regulatory Catalyst

There’s also growing optimism about regulatory clarity. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called for passing the CLARITY Act this spring, arguing that clear rules would provide “great comfort to the market”. White House advisor Patrick Witt says “trillions of dollars in institutional capital” are waiting on the sidelines for regulatory certainty.

If the CLARITY Act passes—admittedly a big if, given the stablecoin yield standoff and ethics concerns—the regulatory environment for crypto exchanges and corporate holders could improve dramatically. That would benefit Coinbase directly and Strategy indirectly through higher Bitcoin prices.

The Institutional Adoption Story

Despite recent price weakness, institutional adoption continues. Bitcoin ETFs, while experiencing outflows recently, still hold billions in assets. Major financial institutions continue building crypto infrastructure. The trend toward integration with traditional finance hasn’t reversed.

For Coinbase, this means potential upside in custody revenue, staking services, and institutional trading. For Strategy, it means continued corporate demand for Bitcoin exposure.

Wall Street’s Mixed Messages: JPMorgan, Canaccord, and the Price Target Game

The analyst reaction to Coinbase’s earnings illustrates the challenge of valuing crypto stocks in a volatile market.

JPMorgan maintained its overweight rating—a bullish stance—while cutting its price target to $252. That’s still well above Friday’s trading price around $166, suggesting significant upside if the bank’s assumptions prove correct.

Canaccord kept its buy rating but slashed its target to $300 from $400, citing lower near-term estimates. Analyst Joseph Vafi pointed to progress on Coinbase’s “Everything Exchange,” growth in USDC commerce use cases, and expanding DeFi applications on Base and Ethereum as reasons for optimism.

Even Monness Crespi & Hardt, which downgraded the stock, set a $120 price target that’s not far from current levels.

The message from analysts seems to be: the business is facing headwinds, but the long-term story remains intact. For investors willing to look through near-term volatility, Coinbase offers exposure to crypto growth at a reasonable valuation.

Other Crypto Stocks Join the Rally

Coinbase and Strategy weren’t alone in Friday’s rally.

Circle (CRCL), the stablecoin issuer behind USDC, saw its shares rise approximately 7%. Circle’s business benefits from stablecoin adoption regardless of which specific cryptocurrencies are trading actively. With stablecoin market capitalization holding steady above $300 billion even as crypto prices fell, Circle’s revenue stream has proven relatively resilient.

Galaxy Digital (GLXY), the investment firm founded by Mike Novogrodze, rose about 6.5%. Galaxy’s diversified model—trading, asset management, investment banking—provides multiple ways to profit from crypto markets, though it remains sensitive to overall industry conditions.

The broad-based nature of the rally suggests genuine sector rotation rather than idiosyncratic moves in individual names.

What This Means for Investors: Reading the Signals

For investors trying to position in crypto stocks, Friday’s action offers several signals worth interpreting.

Signal One: Correlation With Bitcoin Remains High

Coinbase and Strategy both moved in clear sympathy with Bitcoin. When Bitcoin bounces, these stocks bounce harder. When Bitcoin falls, they fall harder. This high-beta characteristic means they’re not diversifiers relative to crypto—they’re amplifiers.

For investors who want crypto exposure but can’t or won’t buy Bitcoin directly, these stocks serve that purpose. For investors seeking diversification within crypto, they’re less useful.

Signal Two: Earnings Matter Less Than Narrative

The disconnect between Coinbase’s earnings miss and its stock surge suggests that, at least for now, narrative matters more than reported numbers. Investors are focused on subscription revenue growth, stablecoin income, and the potential for regulatory clarity—not the quarterly loss driven by trading volume declines.

This can persist for a while, but eventually earnings matter. If trading volumes don’t recover and subscription revenue growth slows, the narrative will shift.

Signal Three: Volatility Cuts Both Ways

Friday’s 18% gain for Coinbase came after a 40% year-to-date decline. The stock has been a wild ride, and there’s no reason to expect that to change. Crypto stocks offer potential for explosive upside but also risk of crushing losses.

Michael Saylor’s Strategy has survived multiple 70%+ drawdowns in Bitcoin and come back stronger. Not every company can do that.

The Bottom Line: A Relief Rally in a Bear Market

Friday’s surge in crypto stocks should be understood for what it is: a relief rally within a broader bear market.

Bitcoin is still down nearly 50% from its October 2025 all-time high. Ethereum is down even more. Trading volumes remain depressed. Regulatory uncertainty persists. The stablecoin yield battle could still derail the CLARITY Act.

Yet within that gloomy picture, there are reasons for optimism. Coinbase’s subscription revenue is growing and diversifying. Strategy continues accumulating Bitcoin at what may prove to be attractive prices. Circle and Galaxy are building infrastructure for the next phase of crypto adoption.

For traders, Friday was a good day. For long-term investors, it’s a reminder that crypto stocks remain volatile, high-beta plays on an asset class that continues to mature despite the current downturn.

As Canaccord’s analysts put it: Coinbase’s scale and profitability stand out in a volatile crypto market. The company remains solidly profitable and is taking incremental market share as it expands its product suite. Viewing the stock as near cyclical lows, with the potential for multiple expansion when the market turns.

Whether the market has turned, or whether this is just a dead cat bounce, remains to be seen. But for one day at least, crypto stocks reminded investors why they bought them in the first place.